Consultant expects Obama win in Nevada

A local political consultant's exit polling has him convinced that Democratic nominee Barack Obama will win the state narrowly, that Republican Rep. Jon Porter will be drubbed and that Republican Rep. Dean Heller might eke out a slender victory.

Experts say surveys such as the one conducted by Steve Nathan of Las Vegas must be taken with a grain of salt because of their methodology and because they focus on ascertaining the behavior of those who have already voted, not projecting what those who have yet to cast ballots will do.

Nathan's firm, Dialing Nationwide Automatically, used automated dialing to call every Nevadan who voted early in the last two weeks; he said 16,749 responded to the survey statewide. Nathan contends that automated dialing is more likely than in-person polling to produce accurate results because people who are shy about sharing who they voted for with another person may still be willing to punch in a code.

The responses are weighted to reflect the known composition of the early-voting electorate.

In the presidential contest, DNA's exit poll finds that 45.5 percent of those who have voted have chosen Republican John McCain while 51.3 percent have cast ballots for Obama and 2.9 percent for the other candidates on the ballot.

"The rural areas heavily favor McCain, but I don't think that's going to be enough for him to overcome Obama on Tuesday," Nathan said. "I think Obama will win Nevada by a slight margin."

In the 3rd Congressional District, where Porter is battling for a fourth term representing mostly suburban areas of Clark County, the exit poll has Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus leading Porter, 55.4 percent to 42.4 percent, with 6.5 percent choosing other candidates among 5,780 respondents. That's a large share of the vote for third-party candidates; Nathan speculated that Titus and Porter have made each other so unlikeable with their barrages of negative ads that they have driven people to cast protest votes.

But Nathan projected Titus will win by at least 8 points.

In the 2nd Congressional District, which covers rural and Northern Nevada, DNA's data has Democratic challenger Jill Derby ahead of Heller, 52.3 percent to 47.3 percent, with less than 1 percent casting third-party votes. There were 5,549 survey respondents.

Over the course of early voting, Nathan said, Derby's lead over Heller has narrowed, and he believes rural turnout on Election Day will put Heller over the top. Derby's strength is believed to be in Washoe County, where Democrats have thus far turned out in higher numbers than Republicans.