It takes good eye to see silver lining in city’s economic picture

I appreciate a community cheerleader more than most, and on occasion have been accused of being one.

But no one will accuse Las Vegas City Manager Betsy Fretwell and City Chief Financial Officer Mark Vincent of being the megaphone-and-pompoms type. The professional numbers crunchers are about as cheerful as the accountants in a Dickens novel.

These days not even Mayor Oscar Goodman -- a man gifted with the vaudevillian's energy -- can manage to find much sunshine in the city's overcast financial forecast as it makes public its fiscal year budget for 2012.

How dismal is it?

The extended economic outlook is so bad the city should consider putting anti-depressants in the water.
Together, the three officials say they anticipate "only" a 1 percent general fund deficiency following a FY 2011 that found the city technically "in the black" after patching its budget with one-time money and reducing costs 12 percent.

That might not sound like much set against the backdrop of recent history, but it's only a small slice of the goings on at City Hall. Job descriptions and the pay scales that go with them continue to be redefined as government attempts to slim down now and in the future. Some pay scales are being reduced up to 20 percent, Fretwell said Tuesday morning.

Sounds good, but it's not that simple.

Although sales taxes are showing signs of stabilizing, property tax revenues continue to slide. The experts' conservative growth projections: flat for the next five or six years. Truth is, they say, it could take a decade for city government to return to the prosperity of, say, 2007.

While some might cheer such a likelihood -- lower tax revenues can mean lower tax rates and a smaller government -- there's a bigger picture. What city officials are essentially saying is that happy days aren't expected for the better part of a decade.

It's hard to come up with a snappy cheer for that.
They could try, "Two, four, six, eight, we've got a sorry tax rate!"

Better yet, "Raw, raw. Crash. Boom. Blah."

While substantial layoffs aren't in the offing as city leaders present the budget strategy, they're ready to request another $6 million in concessions from the Las Vegas Fire Department for the coming year.

Last year, city firefighters largely avoided the devastating public relations nightmare experienced by their Clark County Fire Department cousins by acknowledging the obvious and trimming their contract. It appears they will need to break out the splints and tourniquets against this year.

At a time Goodman should be clearing his desk, he is again raising the specter of the potential privatization of paramedic and transport services.

Attrition, buyouts and consolidation of services have helped shrink city government from 3,300 to 2,600 employees and cut the general fund budget from $550 million a few years ago to an estimated $455 million for the coming fiscal year.

Some recreation centers are going private. The venerable Reed Whipple Arts Center has gone dark. Hours have been cut back at some city programs, and others have been eliminated entirely.

Although working-class and poor neighborhoods might be hit hardest, all points of the city are feeling the pain of contraction.

But there's an upside, the city manager believes. Tough times have encouraged employees to "think out of the box."

Fretwell added, "Besides the fact that it was challenging and troubling for the employees who felt their jobs might be at risk, we were able to negotiate an agreement that helped control those costs and get what we pay back into market ranges that were reasonable. It also taught our employees that there are other ways to deliver the same service at a cheaper price point."

If improved efficiency doesn't give boosters much to cheer about, it just might keep the city afloat during downright depressing times.

John L. Smith's column appears Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. E-mail him at Smith@reviewjournal.com or call (702) 383-0295. He also blogs at lvrj.com/blogs/smith.