Jill Derby thinks her time is now

If Democrats thought Jill Derby was going to bow out of the Sept. 13 special election to fill a U.S. House vacancy, they were wrong. She nearly won the seat in 2006 and thinks her time has come.

That's what Derby said last week in an interview after reading reports in the Las Vegas Review-Journal and elsewhere that Democratic Party leaders in Nevada and Washington, D.C., were hoping she would step aside, clearing the field for State Treasurer Kate Marshall.

The fewer Democrats in the race, the better the chances the party could win the GOP seat since at least four major Republicans are competing for a slice of the electoral pie.

Derby, a former Nevada Democratic Party leader, called the new chairwoman Roberta Lange to talk about the race. Lange assured her the party wouldn't weigh in on those seeking to replace former Rep. Dean Heller, appointed to complete U.S. Sen. John Ensign's term after he resigned.

"She said 'We're out of this,' " said Derby, a native Northern Nevadan who is well-known and well-liked within the party statewide. "That was the assurance I got."

Derby also called national leaders at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who gave her the same assurance that the party wouldn't try to push her out, she said.

"I happen to think I'm the best candidate and a lot of people think that as well," Derby said. "And really, I set the high-water mark in this congressional district" for Democrats.

Derby, a former elected higher education official, won 45 percent of the vote in 2006 during an open-seat contest for the 2nd Congressional District, which Heller won with 50 percent. She lost to Heller again two years later, picking up 41 percent of the ballots to the incumbent's 52 percent.

Back then, Derby had the party fully behind her and raised nearly a total of $3 million for her two campaigns. She said she knows that this time fundraising might be tougher.

"It's a challenging time, given the economy in Nevada," Derby said while acknowledging Marshall may lock up some of the big donors. "I don't know that I could have the same expectation as before."

Lange didn't return a phone call seeking comment on how the party views the race. She had state Democratic Party spokesman Zack Hudson respond instead.

"We're not really speculating (on candidates) until after filing and the field is set," Hudson said, adding the Democrats see a good pickup opportunity. "We've always planned to contest the seat."

The filing period for the special election is May 23-25.

MONEY ADVANTAGE

Democrats see Nevada's first special election in a U.S. House race as their best chance to win the GOP-leaning district for the first time since it was formed in 1982. That's because Secretary of State Ross Miller set the rules so anybody can run. The more candidates, the more the vote is split, meaning the top finisher could win the seat with as little as 15 to 20 percent of the total ballots.

There are 173,641 registered Republicans in the Northern and rural Nevada district that covers all of the state except urban Clark County compared with 142,214 Democrats. Another 85,000 are independents or registered with minor parties, which also can run nominated candidates.

So far, there are three Democrats who have announced they're running in the special election: Marshall, Derby and Nancy Price, a poorly funded do-it-yourself campaigner who lost to Heller in 2010.

Marshall, who has won two statewide elections, is clearly the party favorite. She was heavily recruited by the DCCC in Washington. The Washoe County Democratic Party last week put out an email newsletter that noted Marshall is looking for Nevadans who would be willing to house some of her campaign staff through the Sept. 13 election, a sign she plans to bring in young outsiders to help.

Brian Zuzenak, her campaign manager, used to be the executive director of the Missouri Democratic Party and has experience running a congressional campaign for an open seat. In 2008, his Democratic candidate Judy Baker fell just short, losing to a Republican in a GOP-friendly district.

Zuzenak said Marshall wasn't worried about competition within her own party. Although not native to Nevada, she's been here since 1997 when the former Justice Department attorney started the state's antitrust unit for then-Attorney General Frankie Sue Del Papa.

"Our policy all along is it's a democracy; anyone can run who wants to," Zuzenak said.

If Derby stays in through Sept. 13, Democrats will split the vote.

"That's bad news for the Democrats," said David Damore, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "Derby's come close twice. She's got the name recognition. She's got the community roots, but all the establishment money is going to go to Marshall."

CROWDED GOP FIELD

If Democrats are split, Republicans are splintered.

At least four major GOP candidates are running in the special House election, including Sharron Angle, who could benefit the most from a crowded field.

The tea party favorite was hurt by losing to U.S. Sen. Harry Reid in 2010, and she's angered the GOP since by accusing some of being "left wing." Yet she's a tireless campaigner and has a core conservative group of supporters who may stick with the former Reno assemblywoman.

State Sen. Greg Brower of Reno is a former U.S. attorney for Nevada who has lately increased his profile by being appointed to finish out the term of former state Sen. Bill Raggio in the Nevada Legislature.

Brower's competition for the establishment GOP vote comes from Mark Amodei, chairman of the Nevada Republican Party and a former state senator from Carson City with deep community roots.

Both Brower and Amodei are viewed as moderates, although Brower has pledged not to raise taxes at a time when Democrats are pushing a $1.2 billion package of increases and extensions. Amodei, however, is known for backing a $800 million tax package in 2003 that most Republicans tried to block.

Angle's main staunch conservative threat may come from Kirk Lippold, the former commander of the USS Cole when it was bombed by al-Qaida operatives in October of 2000. He's gotten a lot of conservative radio talk show play since U.S. Navy SEALs killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

Republicans have sued Secretary of State Miller to try and overturn his decision to hold a free-for-all election under an untested law that's open to interpretation. The GOP argues the party central committees should each nominate one candidate. If that happened, the contest would be between Amodei and Brower on the GOP side and Marshall would almost certainly get the Democratic nod.

The case will be heard Thursday in District Court in Carson City.

Contact Laura Myers at lmyers @reviewj ournal.com or 702-387-2919. Follow her on Twitter @lmyerslvrj.