Las Vegas mayoral race could be tight

So now there are two, and nobody knows what's going to happen next.

Carolyn Goodman and Chris Giunchigliani emerged from the 18-candidate pool for Las Vegas mayor Tuesday, Goodman with 37 percent of the vote, Giunchigliani with just over 17 percent and a 15-vote edge on her closest rival.

To some observers, those numbers don't matter anymore. It's time to hit the reset button and get ready for a tight race.

The exact opposite opinion is out there too, though -- that Goodman has too much of a lead to be caught, barring some significant gaffe or campaign-changing revelation.

Mark Peplowski, a political scientist at the College of Southern Nevada, expects a tight race.

"A lot of people thought she would run away with it," he said of Goodman, who is married to the popular incumbent mayor, Oscar Goodman.

"I said, 'If Carolyn Goodman doesn't get 40 percent in the primary, she could be toast,' " he said. "I think it's going to be a fun -- pardon the expression -- balls-to-the-wall race until June. This one will go down to the wire."

That's not what a new poll from Republican consultant John Yob says, though.

His survey Thursday of 510 people who have previously voted in similar elections found Goodman close to a majority: 48.8 percent to Giunchigliani's 33.7 percent.

The firm's polls in the primary closely tracked the margins of victory found in the final results, Yob said Friday.

"I anticipate the margin of victory will once again ultimately be similar to what this poll shows, unless Chris is able to find a game-changer," he said.

CANDIDATES TO KEEP FOCUS

Both candidates said they will continue to focus on job creation, economic development and downtown revitalization. They've promised to avoid negative campaigning as they try to woo the 45 percent of primary voters who didn't vote for one of them.

"To me, it's no change at all," said Goodman of the coming campaign. "I've been running to the voter. My whole thing is the same."

She emphasized her connections to many institutions and interest groups, including the Meadows School, which she founded; the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, where she studied; downtown businesses, which her husband has promoted; and the medical and legal worlds, where her family members are involved.

"I touch every facet of the city," she said. "They would like to see that focus continue. If the voters like what's happened so far, they're going to vote for us."

Giunchigliani, a Clark County commissioner and former state legislator, listed her public service and education background as assets, and said she'll continue her door-to-door and telephone campaign using scores of volunteers. City elections are usually low turnout affairs and campaigns target voters who have participated before, but Giunchigliani said her campaign is crunching numbers to see if efforts to also bring in new voters in the primary paid off.

As for the generally older voters who make up the core of the municipal voting pool, "I think they want someone with experience," Giunchigliani said. "They're smart enough to know that if you want to change politics, you have to know how it works in order to maneuver through it.

"We're going to talk about the energy that it takes to lead Las Vegas into a different era. It's not going to be about the jazz and flash of things. It's going to be about how you can fix things."

BATTLE FOR VOTES

Actually, it's going to be about what it's always about -- who's best at getting their voters to the polls, Peplowski said.

"Chris G. is going to have the ground game. Carolyn Goodman is going to have the money," he said.

Goodman has name recognition, but she doesn't have the electoral experience that Giunchigliani does.

"She's never had a ground game to fall back on," Peplowski said. "Do they have the volunteer base? You need an aggressive, door-to-door ground game in this election."

There's also a block of voters the candidates may seek out: Republicans and conservatives who voted for businessmen Victor Chaltiel and George Harris in the primary.

Neither came close to reaching the second place spot needed to continue to the June 7 general election, but Chaltiel came out of nowhere with a barrage of advertising that got him to 14 percent, and Harris got 5.2 percent. Combined, that's 19.2 percent, which is more than what Giunchigliani received.

"You can make a case for those votes going either of those ways," said Ryan Erwin, a GOP consultant who worked for Chaltiel. "And you can make a case that Republicans just don't vote because they don't have a viable conservative option."

Giunchigliani is a Democrat who is considered liberal and well-liked by organized labor.

Goodman is nonpartisan, although she's been both a Democrat and a Republican in the past.

For Giunchigliani, the test is whether she'll be a "thoughtful mayor" and not a "rubber stamp" for unions and tax hikes, Erwin said.

The city doesn't have the power to raise taxes, but most employees are represented by unions and the city is engaged in ongoing talks about employee pay, benefits and raises in an era of declining tax revenue and short budgets.

Goodman, meanwhile, must prove she's more than just Oscar's wife, he said.

"That question didn't have to be answered in the primary. It's going to have to be answered in the general," Erwin said. "If she can show some conservative bona fides, she'll have a chance to win those votes."

He also isn't buying the promises of a clean campaign.

"I would be stunned if there's no negative campaigning in this," he said. "It's part of the process."

Laura Myers contributed to this report. Contact Alan Choate at achoate@reviewjournal.com or 702-229-6435.