Let’s hope Republicans have some fight left in them on Feb. 4

If you're like many Americans, in recent months you've been following a most entertaining reality television series.

The action has been set against an unlikely backdrop: not on a tropical island or inside a palatial mansion, but behind a line of lecterns under the intense glare of the GOP presidential candidates' debates. One part drama, one part comedy, for political junkies it has been irresistible viewing.

For simple minds like mine, at times it has been like gawking at those old-style professional wrestling matches from late-night TV, a genuine Battle Royal. The opponents start by promising to follow the rules, but before long, they can't resist landing low blows, gouging eyes and hitting enemies with a folding chair.

In the past few months we've watched Mitt Romney vs. Rick Perry and Perry vs. his own brain. It's been Ron Paul vs. Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann piling on in a crowd-pleasing free-for-all. Issues, what issues? Decorum, be damned.

I should have known the fun couldn't last forever. On Tuesday in the Iowa caucuses, America's big reality series started to narrow its contestants. The voting public began to shove the GOP presidential dreamers off the island and into the icy waters of reality.

My concern isn't who will be the last person standing, or even the best one for the job. It's much more selfish than that. I'm worried whether, at the rate they're falling, there will be much of a GOP presidential primary left on Feb. 4 when the reality show arrives in Nevada for our state's Republican presidential caucus. And I'm not the only one to express concern.

In late September, state GOP officials showed they were worried about Nevada being lost in the crowd when they voted to move the presidential caucus to Jan. 14. That generated threats of depriving the state of convention delegates and proved more trouble than it was worth. When the decision was made to move the caucus date to Feb. 4, placing us fifth, national Republican committeeman and former Nevada Gov. Bob List allowed, "We have to eat a little crow perhaps in some people's minds, but I think in the end it's a win-win."

Crow, they can handle. Republicans should be concerned with keeping their primary process relevant. A close primary contest would help energize the state party at a time it trails the Democrats in voter registration and has major races hanging in the balance.

While some national political pundits have expressed their belief that the race for the Republican presidential nomination could essentially be over after Tuesday's Iowa caucuses and the showdown in New Hampshire, Clark County GOP Chairman Dave Gibbs says he thinks there will still be plenty of excitement come Feb. 4.

After looking at polling data that show Romney leading in Iowa and New Hampshire but trailing Gingrich in South Carolina and Florida, Gibbs notes that the GOP horse race should be entering the backstretch by the time the derby reaches Nevada.

"The only way it's going to be over is if Mitt Romney sweeps four states before us. And I just don't think that's going to happen," Gibbs says. "I think of the seven current candidates, I'm willing to bet that at least four if not five of them will still be in the race."

I'm not so sure. As a longtime observer of "Survivor," "The Amazing Race" and "American Idol," not to mention the World Wrestling Federation, I know the plot lines and popularity can change quickly.

But from my seat in the political grandstands, Perry's kidding himself, Gingrich is fading like a $49 paint job, Santorum peaked in Dubuque, and Paul could disappear between the libertarian outposts of New Hampshire and Nevada.

That leaves Romney, who has been active for years in the Silver State.

Maybe Gibbs is right, but my fear factor is that by the time the GOP survivors reach Nevada, it will be all over but the shouting.

John L. Smith's column appears Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. Email him at Smith@reviewjournal.com or call 702-383-0295. He also blogs at lvrj.com/blogs/smith.