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Poll has Obama over McCain

It's still within the margin of error and thus a statistical tie, but the lead has changed hands in the latest Nevada presidential survey by a national pollster.

The monthly automated telephone survey by Rasmussen Reports has Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain 42 percent to 40 percent in the state, after three months in which McCain held slim leads. The poll of 500 likely voters, conducted last week, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

"While the presumptive Democratic nominee's lead in Nevada is statistically insignificant, it represents quite a change from the last three polls," the polling firm notes on its Web site.

McCain led Obama 45-42 in June, 46-40 in May and 48-43 in April, while Obama was ahead 45-41 in March.

Rasmussen, whose methodology is sometimes called into question because the firm doesn't conduct live interviews, notes that Obama appears to be shoring up support within his party.

In the July poll, Obama had the support of 79 percent of Democrats, up 5 points from June. McCain's 76 percent of Republicans was about the same as the 78 percent of party support he received in June.

Nevada is one of two states Rasmussen considers a pure "toss-up," not leaning in either party's direction. The other is Virginia.

In a column in the Roll Call political newspaper last week, national pundit Stu Rothenberg included Nevada on his list of five "states that will pick the president." The others were Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Michigan.

"If Obama wins Nevada, he's likely winning other red states, and he's likely to be the next president of the United States," Rothenberg wrote.

ALL BUNDLED UP

The Nevadans with the big money seem to be lining up behind McCain.

In an effort to appear committed to openness, both presidential campaigns have put lists on their Web sites of their top "bundlers," the big donors who are raising lots of money for the candidates. There are Nevadans on both lists.

While Obama lists only one bundler in Nevada, McCain lists eight. Obama's sole Nevada bundler is Elaine Wynn, listed as raising $50,000 to $100,000 for the Democrat.

McCain's Nevada bundlers include two Reno businessmen at the $50,000 to $100,000 level: homebuilder Perry Di Loreto, owner of Di Loreto Homes, and Steven Mihaylo, retired founder of the business telecommunications company Inter-Tel Inc.

At the $100,000 to $250,000 level, McCain lists Sands Corp. Chairman Sheldon Adelson and Sands Corp. President Bill Weidner. In for $250,000 to $500,000 are Reno businessman T.J. Day, chairman of the investment firm Dacole Co., Republican consultant Sig Rogich, and Elaine Wynn's husband, Wynn Resorts Chairman Steve Wynn -- but he's listed on the campaign Web site with his old company, Mirage Resorts, which has not existed as a standalone entity since 2000.

That's when Mirage merged with MGM Grand to form MGM Mirage, whose current chairman and CEO, Terry Lanni, is McCain's biggest bundler, according to the list. Lanni is in the top category: "$500,000 or More."

Despite this, Obama, whose campaign relies more on small donors, has outraised McCain in Nevada, raising $880,000 to McCain's $792,000 through the end of May.

NOT COMING TO DINNER

Is Obama scheduled to speak at the Clark County Democratic Party's annual dinner in September?

No, he is not. But that's not the impression you might get from a news release put out by the party last week.

The announcement states, "Barack Obama committed at last year's dinner to be the keynote speaker this year," and proceeds to inform readers how they can get tickets, which start at $125 per person.

A publicist for the party, Renee Roberts, acknowledged that Obama's campaign has not confirmed he will attend the Sept. 13 Jefferson-Jackson banquet, but said the party considered his commitment solid based on last year's event.

At that event, in November 2007, all the Democratic primary contenders spoke, including Obama.

Roberts said Obama's supposed commitment wasn't captured on a DVD of the event, because "the cameraman panned away" while he was saying it; but the proof was in Clark County Democratic Party Chairman John Hunt's remark at the end of the speeches: "And yes, as you have all heard, they have all agreed to come back if they are the Democratic candidate."

Hunt remains party chairman despite another instance of his salesmanship outpacing his ability to produce, the county convention in February, which was shut down after anticipated turnout overwhelmed the venue Hunt reserved.

The upcoming dinner is scheduled to be held at Paris Las Vegas, which is at 3655 Las Vegas Blvd. South, even though the news release lists the address as 500 S. Grand Central Parkway, the address of the Clark County Government Center.

A spokeswoman for the Obama campaign said Obama's schedule has not been set past his upcoming overseas trip.

"He certainly hopes to see as many people as possible, and we intend to make sure he is out and about in communities across the country," Nayyera Haq said.

CASHED OUT

Remember Robert Daskas?

The one-time Democratic candidate for Congress, who needed only six months of campaigning to figure out the political life wasn't for him, raised more than $600,000 before calling off his campaign in April, according to his campaign-finance report filed last week.

So what happened to all that cash? According to the report, of the $617,000 Daskas took in, $284,000 went to operating expenditures for the campaign. An additional $248,000 was refunded to donors.

Not everyone got a refund. One donor instead got a letter stating that there was no money left, with Daskas writing: "Campaigns, as you can imagine, are very expensive. ... Unfortunately, the campaign account was depleted as a result of those expenses and refunds, as well as a transfer of funds raised by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee."

A person familiar with the campaign said donations were returned to those who asked for their money back on a first-come, first-served basis.

Daskas' campaign gave $75,000 to the Nevada Democratic Party. The source said that covered the buy-in to the Democrats' coordinated campaign for Dina Titus, who took Daskas' place as the challenger to Rep. Jon Porter. Daskas' campaign also contributed $4,000 to Titus.

That leaves a little over $5,000 in the campaign account for mop-up of any ongoing expenses.

HATE MAIL

Republicans in the 2nd Assembly District are getting a lot of mail, notably a couple of eye-catching anonymous mailings slamming one of the candidates, former Clark County Republican Party Chairman John Hambrick.

One mailer features Hambrick's photo with a cartoon-style thought balloon reading, "The Republican party OWES me!" A caption states, "There are things John Hambrick thinks but won't tell voters."

The mailer, and a subsequent one calling him John "Do Nothing" Hambrick, criticize him for his support from the GOP establishment, including endorsements from Sen. John Ensign and Gov. Jim Gibbons, and blames him for the party falling behind Democrats in money, voter registration and Assembly seats during his chairmanship.

The mailers say they are "Paid for by Republican Donors" and give a Henderson address for "inquiries in writing."

Acting on a hunch, a reporter called Mark DeStefano, the former Republican state treasurer nominee. DeStefano previously filed to run in District 2 as an independent candidate, then dropped out and threw his support behind another Republican, Dr. "Jack" Surpure, saying he objected to what he saw as Hambrick's anointment by party insiders.

DeStefano didn't give a straight answer, but he didn't exactly deny being behind the mailer.

"It's an interesting question," he said. "I agree with what it says. I'm certainly a Republican donor."

DeStefano was clear about who was not behind the fliers: his former campaign consultant, Ryan Erwin, who is not involved in the race, and Surpure, both of whom he said had disowned him because "they didn't want to be associated with anything negative."

Hambrick said he found it unfortunate that someone felt the need to attack him anonymously. He called the mailer's accusations unfounded.

"I've been honored with these endorsements from people who have seen over the years that I work hard," he said. "No one should be anointed. You have to earn an election, and I'm working very hard to earn it."

Contact reporter Molly Ball at mball @reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.

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