Poll: Sandoval dominating Rory Reid

In the race for governor, Republican Brian Sandoval has increased his lead over Democrat Rory Reid to 19 percentage points, according to a new poll, despite being outspent and under attack by the Reid campaign.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal/8NewsNow poll says that 50 percent of respondents now support Sandoval, 31 percent favor Reid and 14 percent remain undecided, a widening of the 11-point margin of two weeks ago.

The polls shows Sandoval with a double-digit lead in every demographic group other than Democrats. And even among Democrats Reid has work to do: 18 percent of Reid's fellow party members chose Sandoval. In turn, Reid got support from just 3 percent of Republicans. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"The big picture is Sandoval is a huge favorite," said Brad Coker, managing director for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "Unless he makes a big mistake, I don't see how he loses this race."

One of Reid's obstacles appears to be his last name. Reid is the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

Statewide, 33 percent of respondents said Reid's family connection makes them less likely to pick him for governor, just 4 percent said it makes them more likely to support him, and 60 percent say it has no effect.

"A father-son team appearing on the ballot on the same time, that is a net negative for the two candidates," said Jim Ferrence, a political consultant to Democratic candidates. "That's been clear to everyone involved from Day One."

The Mason-Dixon poll shows a wider margin between Sandoval and Reid than other recent polls, including an automated phone survey by Rasmussen published Thursday that showed Sandoval with a 10 percentage point lead.

A poll compilation on the Web site RealClearPolitics.com aggregates results of numerous polls by four different companies dating back to August 2009. That compilation shows the average spread between Sandoval and Reid is 11.7 percentage points, but that average doesn't include the latest Mason-Dixon results.

Different polls have shown Sandoval's lead as large as 23 percentage points and as small as 10 points.

"A poll came out yesterday showing that Rory has gained 12 points," said Reid campaign spokesman Mike Trask, referencing the Rasmussen poll. "I think just shows the irrelevancy of early polling."

Trask described Reid's campaign as undeterred by poll results.

"We're going to continue to travel the state and talk to voters about improving our struggling education system and rebuilding our troubled economy," he said.

Sandoval spokeswoman Mary-Sarah Kinner said, "Brian is encouraged by the people he is meeting on the campaign trail and the support he is receiving. But there is work to be done before November."

The Mason-Dixon results show Republicans rallying behind Sandoval, support that was in doubt earlier in the campaign.

Sandoval, a former assemblyman, attorney general, gaming commission chairman and federal judge, had a reputation as a moderate before announcing in September he would challenge incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons in the Republican primary.

Guy Rocha, a historian who has extensively studied Nevada politics, said Reid, who is from Las Vegas, needs to improve his standing in Clark County against Sandoval, who is from Reno.

Rocha said a Southern Nevada Democrat such as Reid needs to win Clark County by 12 or more percentage points and be competitive in Washoe County to have a shot at winning.

He cited 2006 when Democrat Dina Titus of Las Vegas won Clark County by about 6.5 percentage points over Gibbons but still lost the election by 4 percentage points.

"Any poll that comes in that Rory Reid is losing Clark County, he is done," Rocha said. "He has got to win Clark County by more than 12 percent to win it all."

In Clark County, 45 percent of respondents chose Sandoval and 36 percent picked Reid, while 14 percent were undecided. Independent voters statewide favored Sandoval 56 percent to 21 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

Rory Reid has the campaign cash to run a sophisticated, statewide operation.

At the end of the most recent reporting period Reid, who started raising money nearly a year before Sandoval entered the race, had about a $2 million advantage.

He's used it to build a bigger campaign organization and Internet operation in order to take advantage of a statewide Democratic registration advantage.

Rocha said Reid hasn't done enough to distinguish himself from either Sandoval or his father, who is fighting a tough re-election battle with far-right conservative Sharron Angle.

The problem for Rory Reid, however, is that two ways he could gain ground, moving well left of Sandoval or highlighting differences with his father, carry risk. Both he and Sandoval have stated they will balance Nevada's 2011-13 general fund budget without raising taxes, despite a revenue shortfall that could be around $3 billion.

Reid has touted his education plan as superior to Sandoval's and claimed Sandoval would balance the budget in part by laying off teachers, which Sandoval denies.

But Reid hasn't explained how he would balance the budget; separating himself from Sandoval by acknowledging it might take a tax increase probably is a political loser.

Rocha said Reid highlighting differences with his father would not be as risky for his gubernatorial aspirations but would no doubt cause a national stir that could complicate the Senate majority leader's re-election chances.

"He's kind of in between a rock and a hard place," Rocha said.

Contact reporter Benjamin Spillman at bspillman@
reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3861.