Poll shows caucus apathy

RENO -- Thirty-three percent of Nevada's voters said they definitely or probably would attend their party's Jan. 19 presidential caucuses, according to a statewide poll published Sunday.

In a survey of 600 likely voters conducted for the Reno Gazette-Journal, 39 percent said they might not or will not participate.

Democrats are more likely to take part than Republicans by a 40 percent to 31 percent margin.

The poll was conducted Nov. 16-19 by Maryland-based Research 2000. The margin of error was 4 percent.

Nevada might play a more important role in determining the nominees after its caucuses were moved up to Jan. 19, following Iowa on Jan. 3 and the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8.

Despite Nevadans' reluctance to attend a caucus, the number of Nevada voters paying close attention to the presidential race has increased since August.

Of those surveyed, 66 percent said they were following the campaign, compared with 47 percent who were paying attention in August.

Political analysts attributed the lack of interest in the caucuses to several factors, including the complexity of the caucus process and a distaste for the presidential campaign.

"The caucus is a demanding form of political participation," said Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics at Drake University in Iowa. "You don't have huge numbers of people from either party turning out."

A respectable showing in the Nevada caucus would be 20 percent of registered voters, Goldford said. That equals about 84,000 Democrats and 82,000 Republicans.

Other political experts said they expect closer to 10 percent participation.

In 2004, fewer than 10,000 Nevada Democrats, a record number, attended precinct caucuses. No Republican primary took place that year because President Bush faced no challenge within his party.

Nevada Republicans and Democrats will gather the morning of Jan. 19 in neighborhood caucus meetings to elect delegates to their party's county convention.

For Democrats, the candidate who wins the most delegates will be declared the caucus winner. For Republicans, the results of a straw ballot will determine the winner.