Poll shows Titus padding lead over incumbent Porter

Democratic congressional challenger Dina Titus has gained ground and taken a healthy lead in her matchup with Republican Jon Porter, according to a poll conducted by Titus' campaign.

Titus, a state senator hoping to unseat incumbent Rep. Porter in November, leads by 9 percentage points, 46 percent to 37 percent, in the poll of 500 likely voters conducted by telephone this week.

"I think this is a good sign that Dina Titus' campaign is picking up momentum and her message of change is resonating with voters," Titus spokesman Andrew Stoddard said.

The poll by Anzalone Liszt Research carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Six percent of poll respondents chose a third-party candidate -- Independent American Floyd Fitzgibbons, Green Bob Giaquinta, independent Jeffrey Reeves or Libertarian Joseph Silvestri -- while 10 percent were undecided.

A July poll conducted for Titus' campaign put her ahead 43 percent to 39 percent. Since then, Porter and Titus have won their primaries, and both have started airing TV ads.

"After weeks of television communication from both sides ... Titus appears to be getting the better of the exchange," the pollster wrote in a memo with the survey. "Her personal popularity is stronger than Porter's, and the district is trending Democratic. She is in a strong position to win."

A Porter spokesman disputed that notion, saying any poll taken now is preliminary.

"House races are won in October," Matt Leffingwell said. "As the economy continues to struggle, the prospect of having another tax-and-spend liberal in Washington voting with the Democrats will not sit well with Nevadans on Nov. 4."

Porter has always anticipated a tough race, Leffingwell said. "We're in this race to win it, and we're confident that our message will bring us across the finish line."

The poll found Porter viewed favorably by 44 percent in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes mostly suburban and rural areas of Clark County; 41 percent viewed Porter unfavorably. Since July, Porter's favorable rating has dropped 4 points, while his unfavorable rating rose 7 points.

Titus was viewed favorably by 50 percent, up 4 points from the July survey; 37 percent viewed her unfavorably.

Nevertheless, a recent Porter poll by Glen Bolger put Porter ahead of Titus 41 percent to 39 percent, with 7 percent choosing third party candidates and 11 percent undecided. The poll of 400 likely voters carried a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

Porter's poll found the congressman was viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent. Titus was viewed favorably by 36 percent and unfavorably by 39 percent.

Pollster Jeff Liszt said most challengers face difficulty introducing themselves to voters familiar with the incumbent. Titus, who ran for governor in 2006, is different. Although she lost that race to Gov. Jim Gibbons, Titus got more votes in Southern Nevada.

Meanwhile, Liszt noted, commercials attacking Titus aired by Porter and by Freedom's Watch, a conservative group, have largely centered on the idea that she is a tax-hiker, a familiar line from the gubernatorial campaign.

Although a poll conducted by a campaign might seem suspect, he said pollsters give candidates a realistic idea of how they're doing.

University of Nevada, Reno, political scientist Eric Herzik said he's not surprised to see the results of the Titus poll. "This is not a good year to be running as a Republican, particularly in Southern Nevada, given the economy, the housing market, the job outlook. He's (Porter) been in trouble from Day 1."

Three factors are working against Porter, said Herzik, a registered Republican.

First, Democrats had huge numbers of voters sign up. The 3rd District now has more than 29,000 more Democrats than Republicans registered, according to the Clark County Election Department. Second, he said, Democrats have a base that is well organized and engaged this year, while Republicans do not. Plus, Titus is a strong candidate.

In the past, Herzik said, Porter faced neophyte candidates who could be counted on to "crumble."

"Dina is an experienced candidate who has run well in that area. A lot of Republicans are going to find this year that the same old message isn't going to work."

Contact reporter Molly Ball at mball @reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.