Pollsters got it right this time

For the most part, the pollsters got it right when it came to predicting the outcome of Nevada's caucuses.

Unlike New Hampshire primary polls that had the survey-takers questioning themselves when they got it wrong, recent polls by the Review-Journal, Zogby International and American Research Group all pointed to a win by Hillary Clinton, with Barack Obama in second and John Edwards in third.

The Review-Journal and American Research Group polls also predicted Mitt Romney's caucus victory in Nevada.

None of those polls, however, came close to matching the actual percentages reported for each candidate following the caucus, especially on the Democratic side.

The Review-Journal poll, conducted last week by Virginia-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., showed Clinton with 41 percent, Obama with 32 percent, John Edwards with 14 percent and Dennis Kucinich with 3 percent.

Unofficial caucus results Saturday showed Clinton with nearly 51 percent, followed by Obama with 45 percent, Edwards with less than 4 percent, and Kucinich with less than 1 percent.

There's a good reason for the discrepancy, according to Mason-Dixon Managing Director Brad Coker.

"You can't compare our poll to the (caucus) results as they are being reported, because it's an apples-to-oranges situation," he said. "We were polling for the raw vote."

In other words, the caucus results as reported on the Democratic side reflect the percentages each candidate wound up with after the second and final count -- that is, after supporters who couldn't get enough support to earn a delegate for their favorite candidate realigned behind their second choice. As a result, Edwards' numbers are much lower and the two top finishers are higher, Coker said.

"Edwards at 4 percent is a reflection of him not getting 15 (percent of participants in the first round) in a number of precincts. It's really more a reflection of the system than of the votes he got."

Of the major polls conducted this month, only the Reno Gazette-Journal predicted winners other than Clinton and Romney.

A poll conducted for the newspaper a week ago by Maryland-based Research 2000 showed Obama with 32 percent, Clinton with 30 percent and Edwards with 27 percent. On the Republican side, the poll showed John McCain with 22 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani with 18 percent, Mike Huckabee with 16 percent, and Romney with 15 percent.

Interestingly, Clinton's own national pollster apparently also got it wrong. Campaign officials said Saturday morning that internal polling conducted Friday night showed Obama with a 5-point lead.