Romney faces challenges as Nevada caucus looms

At Mitt Romney headquarters in Las Vegas, men and women wearing phone headsets use computer software to dial up Nevada Republicans. One name at a time pops up on a screen.

The setup looks a bit like a boiler room operation, only the callers aren't selling carpet cleaning or cable TV. Campaign volunteers are selling the idea of attending the state's Feb. 4 Republican Party caucuses -- and standing up for Romney as GOP voters choose their presidential preferences.

Volunteers ring a shiny desk bell each time they score a new Romney supporter.

"Ding, ding, ding!" -- although they don't all know to sound the happy alarm.

"We had a lot of new people here tonight, and I forgot to tell them," Scott Scheid, deputy Nevada director for Romney, said last week as he wrapped up another phone bank evening.

A similar scene plays out most days and nights in the Nevada offices of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, the only other GOP candidate as organized as Romney eight weeks before the caucuses.

The two GOP hopefuls finished first and second in the 2008 GOP presidential caucuses in Nevada -- Romney at 51 percent and Paul at 14 percent.

The eventual GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain, took 13 percent, although he didn't campaign here and focused on other early states instead. This time around, Romney is counting on winning the Nevada GOP caucus again, picking up the first 2012 electoral prize in the West.

Paul is working hard for an upset in Nevada, however, while a rising Newt Gingrich is a potential spoiler who could capture some of Nevada's 28 GOP delegates.

"Romney's still the presumptive winner in Nevada," said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "But if Newt Gingrich comes in and does well, then Romney's in serious trouble. He's done well on Romney's home court. Nevada is very important to Romney."

January will set the stage for what happens in Nevada, which could become a key state to demonstrate the staying power of Romney, Paul or Gingrich, who now make up the top tier.

GINGRICH SURGE

When Herman Cain suspended his presidential campaign on Dec. 3, staunch conservatives in Nevada and nationwide began looking for a new standard bearer, helping Gingrich rise in the polls.

The big question is whether it's too late for Gingrich to take advantage of the surge by organizing costly ground campaigns in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida as well as Nevada.

Otherwise, the former House speaker could fall just like the other alternatives to Romney before him: Cain, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn.

Gingrich is beefing up his staff in the first four voting states, where he's leading Romney everywhere but New Hampshire, according to the latest polls.

Gingrich is doing well among evangelicals in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, a group Romney, a Mormon, has difficulty reaching.

In Nevada, Gingrich doesn't have a campaign office to tap likely GOP caucusgoers and supporters, although a couple of political operatives are starting to organize here.

"I've been working with the Newt campaign for about a month," said Tiffany Ruegner, who last year worked for the Tea Party Express and has experience organizing in Nevada.

For now, there are no plans to open a Gingrich office in Nevada, she said.

That could change based on how well he does in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus, the Jan. 10 New Hampshire primary, the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary and the Jan. 31 Florida primary.

If Gingrich wins some of those states, he could ride into Nevada with a political wind at his back, giving him momentum.

Gingrich also could recruit some of Cain's Nevada troops, who remain loyal to the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and would likely help any White House contender Cain endorses.

"I'm going to stay in Nevada," said Elicia Huffaker, who was state director of Cain's campaign here. "Right now I'm working with Cain Solutions. There's always going to be a candidate we like."

Asked who the alternative to Cain might be, Huffaker said, "Probably Newt, but I don't know."

ROMNEY COUNTS ON NEVADA

New Hampshire and Nevada are Romney firewalls. They're must-win states he has long counted on in what could be a strung-out primary that might not be decided until long after Super Tuesday on March 6 when a dozen states hold contests the same day.

"Nobody is willing to wager on which way this race is going," said former Nevada Gov. Bob List, who was in Washington last week for meetings of the Republican National Committee.

In Nevada, the all-important ground war is solely between Romney and Paul for now. This time, Nevada's 28 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis instead of winner take all, raising the stakes for viable candidates to compete here to pick up delegates to the party convention.

The two campaigns started with their own lists of GOP caucus supporters from 2008, when Romney won 22,649 compared to 6,087 for Paul. The Nevada Republican Party didn't keep a list of the total 44,000 caucus participants last time, making it tougher for other candidates to organize.

The Romney campaign has heard anywhere from 40,000 to 100,000 Republicans may participate in the Nevada caucuses. The Paul campaign puts the estimate at between 60,000 and 70,000.

At Romney headquarters, from one to several dozen volunteers each night call previous supporters and try to widen the net by reaching out to other Republicans who may attend the party meetings.

Ryan Erwin, a top Romney adviser in Nevada, said Romney would like 100 percent support but has set a more realistic goal -- a first-place finish, whether or not he matches his 51 percent from 2008.

"I'll take No. 1 by one vote," Erwin said. "Anybody can win the state, but it takes a lot of effort, a lot of people. You need to identify your people and get them to show up at the caucus."

This is where opinion polls don't count much, Erwin said, especially for political party caucuses where only the most devoted Republicans backing their particular candidate tend to show up.

Erwin dismissed the Gingrich threat, saying the race has long been a two-person race -- Romney versus a rotating cast of political "flavors of the month," such as Bachmann, Perry, Cain and now Gingrich.

"It's like fantasy sports," Erwin said, adding he believes Republicans will rally around Romney because he's the strongest candidate who could beat President Barack Obama. "He's competitive, trustworthy. You know what you're getting. He's been under the white-hot spotlight for a long time."

Volunteers for Romney range from first-time political participants and party switchers upset with Obama to longtime supporters and members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. They like the former Massachusetts governor's record and his business experience as well.

"The country is in dire need of strong leadership, someone who can create jobs, someone with strong moral values," said Vicky Miller, a new volunteer along with her daughter. "Gingrich, I like him, but I don't think he can win. He's got so much baggage, and I think he's a loose cannon."

Gingrich has been married three times and admitted having affairs. His successful 1994 Contract with America that helped Republicans take control of the House is his major achievement, but he often angered his colleagues and was the subject of ethics investigations that dragged him down.

Bill House, a Democrat turned Republican, said he voted for Obama in 2008 because he believed he would bring change to the country. But House has been disappointed with the economy.

"I think Romney's got the solutions. We need a businessman as president," House said.

Eric and Ann Christensen, a Mormon couple, said they volunteered for Romney in 2008, too. They praised Romney's morality and church work but said their support goes beyond religion.

"He's a guy who solves problems," Eric Christensen said.

PAUL SUPPORTERS CONFIDENT

At the Paul headquarters in Henderson, the atmosphere was lively last week with a few children running about and piles of food -- pizza, crumb cake, fried chicken -- laid out on a center table.

Carl Bunce, chairman of the Texan's Nevada campaign, smiled when asked about whether Gingrich might have staying power in the race and whether he might play here.

"I hope he lasts until our caucus," Bunce said. "I think he takes some of the people who don't want to vote for Romney and who don't understand Ron Paul. It's a vote that doesn't go to Romney."

Paul's strategy is to organize his troops to win caucus states and do well in New Hampshire as well.

Some Nevada volunteers for Paul plan to work in Iowa during the week after Christmas and before the Jan. 3 caucus there. In turn, a flood of volunteers from other states will stream into Nevada ahead of the Feb. 4 caucus here to drive Paul's support at the party meetings, Bunce said.

"We can win Iowa and we can win Nevada," Bunce said. "Nevada will set the tone for the West. We want limited government, limited spending. If Nevada chooses Ron Paul, that's a big statement."

While most GOP presidential contenders have proposed reducing the rate of federal spending and trimming government, Paul has suggested deep budget cuts, including eliminating foreign aid.

Leandro Gonzalez, who was manning a phone, wore a T-shirt that said, "Veterans for Ron Paul."

A former Marine and Iraq War veteran, Gonzalez said the United States "shouldn't be acting as the world's policeman. That's what I did in Iraq and at what cost? More than 4,000 American lives."

Gonzalez, like many volunteers, comes in to work the phones a couple of times a week and canvasses neighborhoods as well. For some loyal Paul backers, it's like a part-time job.

A teacher, Gonzalez plans to travel to Iowa during his Christmas break, paying his own airfare, to volunteer for Paul with about 500 others.

The campaign will pick up room and board.

"Some people think some of what Ron Paul says seems crazy, but he makes the most sense," Gonzalez said. "He's nonintervention, not isolation. He still wants to trade with other countries."

Steve Smith is among the former Obama supporters disappointed the president hasn't done more to turn around the economy, which was tanking as he came into office in early 2009.

"I grew up in Washington state. I was part of the crowd that loved Democrats and hated Republicans and didn't know why," said Smith, who changed his party registration to Republican to back Paul in the GOP caucus. "I'd given up politics until I saw Ron Paul."

Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919. Follow @lmyerslvrj on Twitter.