Thompson still mystery to voters

A few months ago, a quarter of Nevada Republicans were ready to support him, sight unseen -- more than supported any other candidate. And he wasn't even a candidate.

Now, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is a candidate for president. But he is still an unknown quantity to Nevadans.

According to his campaign, Thompson has no plans to visit the state in the near future and doesn't have an organization in place yet.

A Thompson spokesman wouldn't say whether the campaign considers Nevada, which has planned a low-profile Republican caucus in January, an early contest state.

"Republican voters in Nevada, like voters across the country when introduced to Senator Thompson's message of consistent conservatism, will be open to Fred Thompson's candidacy," campaign spokesman Jeff Sadosky said.

"The polling we've seen has shown there was a clear desire, before his entrance into the race, for an alternative to the candidates who had previously announced," Sadosky said. "That's what drove his candidacy -- a clear desire for it. Now it's incumbent on our campaign to get out among voters and build on that bedrock of support."

The campaign says it is just getting started. So far, Thompson has campaigned in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida and Michigan.

However, last week the campaign announced it was gearing up in Wyoming with the support of two state political veterans who would serve as co-chairs, indicating organizing efforts are under way in other states.

"He just announced a few weeks ago, and there hasn't been any formal campaign organization for Nevada yet," said John Mason, an entertainment lawyer in Reno who is helping Thompson organize in Nevada.

Thompson's campaign has tentatively committed to a visit to Las Vegas and Reno in mid-November and is looking to hire a staffer in Nevada, said Mason, a three-term former chairman of the state Republican Party who has run unsuccessfully for statewide office.

"Senator Thompson expects to come out to Nevada, make public appearances, and be actively involved in a campaign to win the Nevada caucuses," Mason said.

The marathon 2008 presidential race was well under way by early 2007. Thompson didn't announce his candidacy until early September, after his name had been floated for several months and generated buzz among the Republican base.

Before his announcement, Nevada looked like fertile ground for Thompson. A June Review-Journal poll put him slightly in the lead, with 25 percent of Republican voters, compared to 20 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and 17 percent for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

In August, a Reno Gazette-Journal poll wasn't quite as rosy for Thompson, but he still made a remarkably good showing for a noncandidate. Romney was in the lead with 28 percent of Republican votes, while Thompson was tied with Giuliani for second with 18 percent.

Nevada Republicans, like Republicans nationally, are still looking for a candidate they can agree on, making for a highly unsettled, undecided field that creates opportunities for fresh faces, analysts say.

It doesn't hurt if they are also famous faces. Thompson's acting career, most notably as the gruff, commanding district attorney on television's "Law & Order," makes him instantly recognizable and creates an obvious comparison to Ronald Reagan.

"The Republican field is wide open, because there are very few Republicans who just love any given candidate," said Eric Herzik, a University of Nevada, Reno political scientist. "This is in stark contrast to the Democrats."

Herzik added, "That type of environment has allowed Thompson to sit back, not spend money, not campaign, and still rise in the polls despite jumping in late. So the field's open for him. He's got considerable upside in Nevada."

Thompson's potential in Nevada, however, will remain unfulfilled until he makes an effort to define himself, Herzik said.

"Nevada would be a great place for him to come, try out his message, and shoot up in the polls," Herzik said. "The Republican candidates are mostly ignoring Nevada. If Thompson puts an effort into this state, he probably could win it, but the longer he waits, the harder it will be."

Carson City conservative activist Chuck Muth, who left the Republican Party in frustration earlier this year, is among Nevadans eager to hear Thompson's pitch.

"I haven't heard that he's done anything in Nevada or that he intends to anytime soon," Muth said. "Absolutely, he should. Nevada is the essence of what conservatism is supposed to be: Live and let live, leave me alone, limited government. This is the place for him to come and put out that message."

Muth is a libertarian-leaning conservative, and from his research he believes Thompson is, too.

"I've read stuff he's written on Townhall.com," a conservative activist Web site. "He sounds like a state's-rights guy. That's appealing to a guy like me. But only people like me are going to hear that message unless he puts himself out there more."

Thompson's campaign has been criticized nationally for being slow out of the gate. He hasn't done a lot of campaigning and has stumbled when faced with questions.

Part of the problem is that people see what they want to see in Thompson, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Thompson's slogan of "consistent conservatism" is a pitch to social and religious conservatives who distrust attempts to steer rightward by Romney, Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain, all of whom have had careers as social moderates. But he has failed to captivate the religious right; still disenchanted, some influential religious conservatives recently convened to consider seeking a third-party candidate.

The party's other pillar, fiscal and state's-rights conservatives like Muth, also aren't sold on the leading candidates and want Thompson to be their man.

Both groups may be disappointed, Sabato said.

"The real, live candidates have been grubbing around down in the dirt for months. Then you have someone who's untouched and unsullied riding in on a white horse -- of course he looks good," Sabato said. "But eventually the guy on the white horse has to get down in the dirt, too."

So who is Thompson really?

"I don't know what he is," Sabato said. "He was a moderate-conservative Republican when he was in the Senate. I always associated him with McCain.

"Sooner or later, he's got to resolve the contradictions in his own image, because he can't be all things to all people. He has to define himself, and as he defines himself, he's inevitably going to alienate somebody."

One way Thompson could alienate Nevadans is on the issue of Yucca Mountain, the proposed nuclear waste repository 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas that most Nevadans oppose.

Thompson was in the Senate when the dump was last put to a vote, in 2002, and voted in favor of a procedural motion that allowed it to go forward, counter to Nevada's position.

Asked Thompson's position on Yucca, Sadosky, the campaign spokesman, said, "We'll discuss his energy plan, and Yucca Mountain, in due course."

Anti-Yucca activists are not encouraged by the fact that Spencer Abraham, who pushed the project forward as secretary of energy, is a senior adviser to Thompson's campaign.