Big decisions in five Senate races

If your team was protecting a small lead, how would you try to close out the game? Would you play it safe or take a risk?

Such decisions make or break political careers. Such decisions could decide which political party wins Nevada's most important legislative races and controls the state Senate in 2013.

By now, regular readers of this column already know what's at stake for the state in November's election. Beyond the presidential race, five state Senate campaigns will have the greatest impact on Nevada's immediate future and the lives of its residents.

Democrats currently control the upper chamber, 11-10. Just five of the fall's Senate campaigns will be competitive races, based on the way the courts redrew district boundaries. If Republicans, led by current caucus leader Michael Roberson of Las Vegas, win four of those five races, they'll retake control of the Senate by the same 11-10 margin. The Democrats, led by Mo Denis of Las Vegas, need to win just two of those five campaigns to keep the majority.

However, if Democrats take all five races, they'll have a two-thirds supermajority, enough to raise taxes and override any veto by Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval. Democratic control of the Assembly is all but assured, so the Senate campaigns will decide whether the 2013 legislative agenda has political balance or leans hard to the left.

These five races will attract the most money among the more than 50 legislative races. Fellow candidates, especially those in favorable districts, will collect contributions for themselves then shift the donations to the most competitive campaigns. Three of the state Senate races have the potential to top $1 million in total expenditures, a figure normally reserved for statewide campaigns.

It's no secret how Roberson and his slate of candidates will approach the next four months - every one of them will run hard. They have no choice. They have to try to win every seat.

Denis and the Democrats, however, have options. Do they try to match the GOP candidates, dollar for dollar, move for move, in all five races? Or do they overload in the two or three races they feel they have the best chance of winning and concede that trying to win more than that is a long shot?

Here's how the five races break down:

- Senate District 5 (Henderson area): Republican Steve Kirk, a former Henderson councilman, faces Democrat Joyce Woodhouse, a one-time state senator bounced from office in 2010 by Roberson. According to the secretary of state's final active voter registration statistics before this month's primary election, the district is 40 percent Democratic, 37 percent Republican and 23 percent nonpartisan or other. The seat is being vacated by Democrat Shirley Breeden.

- Senate District 6 (northwest Las Vegas): Republican Mark Hutchison faces Democrat Benny Yerushalmi, who lost a Senate campaign in 2010. The district is 41 percent Democratic, 38 percent Republican and 21 percent other. The seat is being vacated by Democrat Allison Copening.

- Senate District 9 (southwest Las Vegas): Republican Mari Nakashima St. Martin faces Democrat Justin Jones. The district is 40 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican and 25 percent other. The seat was vacated by Republican Elizabeth Halseth, who resigned less than two years into her first four-year term.

- Senate District 15 (Washoe County): Incumbent Republican Greg Brower faces Democrat Sheila Leslie, who resigned from a different, safer Senate district to try to flip this seat. The district is 40 percent Republican, 38 percent Democratic and 22 percent other.

- Senate District 18 (northwest Las Vegas): Republican Assemblyman Scott Hammond faces Democrat Kelli Lynn Ross. The district is 41 percent Republican, 38 percent Democratic and 21 percent other. This is a new district.

The campaigns have a lot in common. In four of the five races, registered Republican and Democratic voters are separated by 3 percentage points or less. Four of the five races are open seats. In all five races, more than 20 percent of the voters aren't registered with a major party - they'll swing every race. And in all five campaigns, there are no minor-party or independent candidates to divert support.

The wild cards: Does the state Democratic Party run another lie-filled smear campaign against the GOP slate, as it did in 2008 (with success) and 2010 (with failures)? And if there's no significant economic rebound by November, how do independents vent their frustration when four races lack an incumbent?

If I were Denis and the Democrats, I'd load up against St. Martin simply because Jones has the most favorable district demographics. Leslie will command resources because she's the caucus's best and most proven candidate, and she'll be relied upon to help deliver Washoe County votes for President Obama and Rep. Shelley Berkley in her challenge to Sen. Dean Heller.

On the Republican side, Hammond is favored in his race. Hutchison and Kirk should be able to outraise their opponents. Brower is in for a brawl.

So do Democrats play it safe or take chances? Their path to a Senate majority is easier than the one Republicans must travel. The wrong call could blow the game. Decisions, decisions.

Glenn Cook (gcook@reviewjournal.com) is a Review-Journal editorial writer. Follow him on Twitter: @Glenn_CookNV.