Clinton running against a movement

Back when the early primary calendar was established, most political observers believed the Democratic nominee would be chosen by the end of January.

The theory then was that Hillary Clinton was the inevitable nominee. After all, she's the most recognized woman in the world and still has the most formidable party machine ever established for a national campaign.

But here we are, approaching mid-February with talk that Pennsylvania's April primary may actually help decide the nomination.

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Democrats were supposed to anoint, raise money and heave attacks on presumptive GOP nominee Rudy Giuliani.

Super Tuesday has triggered the opposite. Now it's the Republicans who get to hold their nose, anoint, raise money and wait excitedly for Clinton to win the nomination.

"There is no doubt," former Bush White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said Tuesday night on CNN. "We hope and pray every night to run against Hillary Clinton."

The early calendar has actually worked against Clinton, containing as it did states outside the northeast and left coast. Sure, she drubbed Obama in her home state of New York as expected, and handily won California thanks largely to Latino voters.

But Clinton is no longer running against Obama. Tuesday's results solidified that she is running against a movement.

Obama said Tuesday: "It's a chorus that cannot be ignored."

And as returns were coming in showing Obama trouncing Clinton in the intermountain West and America's heartland, Clinton was off thanking the good people of American Samoa for supporting her.

Obama won more states Tuesday and practically split the delegates awarded. What's more, his performance in states such as Idaho, Alaska and Kansas, not to mention his victory in Missouri, sent a message to all those superdelegates (members of Congress and party leaders from the various states) who have yet to sign on with the Clinton machine.

Obama had those superdelegates in mind Tuesday night when he gave a speech from campaign headquarters in Chicago.

Obama argued to voters in upcoming states -- Louisiana, Virginia, Maryland, even Ohio and Texas -- that Clinton will not change Washington because she can't get there.

"It's a choice between going into this election with Republicans and independents already united against us or going against their nominee with a campaign that has united Americans of all parties, from all backgrounds, from all races, from all religions, around a common purpose," Obama said.

He turned her "experience over change" argument on its head. He then went for the jugular. "If I'm your nominee, my opponent will not be able to say that I voted for the war in Iraq, because I didn't, or that I gave George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran, because I haven't," Obama said.

Then he switched targets, and made the case for why McCain will find him a tough opponent. "He will not be able to say that I wavered on something so fundamental about whether it's OK for America to use torture, because it's never OK," Obama said.

Hey, if the Republicans could swiftboat John Kerry's military service, McCain's fair game for caving to Bush on torture.

Obama and Clinton could battle on into spring, and there's now talk about an actual battle for delegates at the national convention in Denver. Clinton has amassed more of the party muckety-mucks, while Obama's campaign claims it has won more delegates through the actual voting.

In Nevada, there's eight, maybe seven of these super types. Embattled former County Commissioner Yvonne Atkinson Gates is practically a Democratic National Committee delegate for life, however rumors of her current marital status and whereabouts place her in Colorado. She may end up in the Centennial State's delegation.

Nevada superdelegates Rep. Shelley Berkley and state Sen. Dina Titus have committed to Clinton and state Sen. Steven Horsford has committed to Obama. The others, Harry Reid, Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and party chairs Jill Derby and Sam Lieberman, are uncommitted.

So, there are four, maybe five superdelegates here who will have to commit at some point.

It would seem Obama's overpowering fundraising may help him in the upcoming contests, and maybe even help push some of those undecided supers into his camp.

If I had to bet, I'd say Cortez Masto will end up with Clinton and Gates with Obama.

The telling thing really is that nothing has been determined, and Nevada's early role may actually play right into the doom scenario of a Denver delegate fight. Clinton won the Silver State after all, but only half the delegates.

Contact Erin Neff at eneff@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2906.