Early turnout favors Democrats

Whenever East Coast friends ask whether Nevada will turn blue, they seem assured of that prospect based on reports showing the state to have many more registered Democrats than Republicans.

A Republican family member from Pennsylvania said she figured her own state offered better prospects for John McCain than Nevada because of the 111,000 extra Democrats out here.

A Democratic friend from Massachusetts was thrilled at Saturday's early vote numbers in Nevada showing a 3-to-1 margin in Democratic turnout.

But it's hard to explain the party labels here to those from older states with more established political terrain. A Clark County Democrat is nothing like one from the coasts -- and nothing, really, like the ones up north in Washoe County.

In Las Vegas, and particularly in Henderson, the Democratic voters who might call themselves "moderates" are as liberal as you get. Here are two examples I found over the weekend.

Marty Smith is a retired union steelworker, registered Democrat and proud gun owner. Smith said, "I held my nose and voted for John McCain. I almost didn't vote because he's as bad on immigration as Barack Obama."

Smith said he was drawn to the polls more to cast down-ticket votes. He lives in state Senate District 5, where Republican Joe Heck is battling against an upsurge in Democratic voter registration and a well-funded opposition.

"Heck doesn't seem like the other Republicans," Smith said. "I stuck with him because the other campaign is so ugly, and as Republicans go, he's pretty liberal."

With rare exception, labels are hard to pin on Nevada voters.

A self-described lifelong Democrat, Gloria Jimenez strode into the Meadows mall and voted for McCain. Jimenez, 59, had supported Hillary Clinton in the caucuses and said she felt McCain had more experience than Obama. I asked her if it made any difference that the Clintons are campaigning for Obama.

"I don't think the caucus process was fair," Jimenez said. "I don't think the media was fair. So now, it's my turn to be unfair."

Ah, the power of the vote.

Two Democrats hardly represent a statistically valid sample. But it shows how small Obama's margin for error here is. Days before the 2004 election, a poll conducted by the Review-Journal showed George W. Bush with a 6-point edge in Nevada. He won the state by 2.5 percentage points, within the poll's margin of error.

Recent polls give Obama a 4- or 5-point edge over McCain here. The best scenario for the Obama campaign with those numbers would be about a 1-point victory.

Every vote will matter in this race. On some national Electoral College maps, particularly those managed by Republican consultants, Nevada is one of just five states left without a true blue or red designation. Today, with two weeks left until Election Day, you could still classify Nevada as a coin toss.

Obama's strategy to widen the campaign map and work hard in Republican territory such as Elko County likely won't result in him winning that area. But he has to pick up votes somewhere, when you consider Democratic voters such as Smith and Jimenez. News reports over the weekend had plenty more examples of Democrats voting for McCain.

There are also Republicans out there voting for Obama, Republicans who don't think they fit in very well with the current direction of the party. "I was finally glad to see someone I consider a social moderate with good fiscal sense win the nomination," said Las Vegas Republican Lee Martino. "Then he went and picked Sarah Palin just to appease the evangelicals, and he lost me."

Martino said he supports "realistic" Republicans. In Nevada, Kenny Guinn and Bill Raggio would fit that bill. But to many, Guinn and Raggio are RINOs -- Republicans In Name Only.

Martino voted Sunday shortly after Colin Powell endorsed Obama on "Meet the Press." "That just sealed it for me," Martino said. "What Powell did and said was more maverick than anything McCain is doing."

After the first two days of voting in Clark County, Democrats far outpaced Republicans at the polls, 27,526 to 11,090.

The Democratic edge in contested districts was roughly 2-to-1.

In the 3rd Congressional District, the increased registration by Democrats has been obvious during the first two days of early voting turnout. A total of 15,967 Democrats voted over the weekend, compared with 7,392 Republicans.

The margins were similar in Assembly Districts 5 and 29, and in state Senate Districts 5 and 6. If Democrats pick up Assembly 5 and hold District 29, they would have a veto-proof majority. Democrats take control of the Senate with wins in either 5 or 6.

Republicans have a slight edge (45 to 42 percent) in the 12,000 absentee ballots received over the weekend. But the Democratic turnout edge is widespread.

There is not a single legislative, County Commission or education race in which Republicans turned out in greater numbers than Democrats. Any Republican incumbent could be in danger.

Then again, who knows how many voters like Smith, Jimenez and Martino are among the statistics?

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.