Four pols a-promising, three pollsters polling, two unions endorsing …

Most thoughts these days are on the 12 days of Christmas, but mine are on the 11 days of the caucus.

Once the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary are finished, presidential candidates will have 11 days leading up to the Nevada caucuses on Jan. 19, before they fully turn their attention to South Carolina.

Think of the possibilities. Las Vegas could begin to resemble Ames or Manchester, with candidate buses meeting in traffic en route to different events.

It's even possible a Democrat will leave Comma Coffee in Carson City as a Republican enters, or that, given the dearth of union-approved hotels in Reno, there could be competition for the presidential suites.

It may actually prove that the candidates who brave the Elko winter won't be guaranteed victory there. Just showing up when there are three other candidates nearby doesn't mean the good folks will necessarily think any better of you.

Political pundits like to watch polls and play what-if games. My current favorite parlor activity is the split scenario on both sides of the aisle.

Some polls indicate Sen. Barack Obama has a slight lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus in Iowa, but that Clinton has a lead in New Hampshire.

Let's say Obama wins Iowa and Clinton takes second. The two then flip positions in New Hampshire and, voila, it's anybody's race in Nevada.

On the Republican side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is apparently now leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Iowa, but Romney has a commanding lead in New Hampshire. What if Huckabee somehow rides his momentum over Romney's organization in Iowa and pulls a respectable second in New Hampshire?

Nevada could conceivably become make-or-break for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani or for Arizona Sen. John McCain.

After Nevada votes, there are still 17 days until the big states weigh in Feb. 5. So, the post-New Hampshire landscape could be more desert than coasts. There's still money to be raised here, and California is just a quick trip away for more campaign dough.

All of the campaigns are focused squarely on Iowa these days because it decides just after the holidays.

The biggest speculation here has been when the Culinary union will endorse a candidate. Clearly the union has lived up to its promise of "after Thanksgiving," but now it's taking it a bit further, into "after the New Year."

That's a clever way to hedge its bet. For months, the local has waited to see movement in the polls here. Now it can endorse after seeing the results in Iowa.

Clearly, the Culinary is not interested in taking a risk. It remains possible the Culinary's potential boots on the ground could help sway turnout for a candidate. For now, its silence says the union doesn't want to back a loser.

The lack of an endorsement from the local Service Employees International Union appears to be more about internecine squabbles than insightful wisdom. The SEIU endorsement, which is expected this month, will provide a two-way channel for a candidate between here and California.

California members will come here not just to help the chosen candidate, but to build organization skills leading up to the Feb. 5 vote there.

If Clinton loses Iowa and former Sen. John Edwards makes a strong play for second place, a union endorsement here could really help him catch up to the deeper pockets of the Clinton and Obama campaigns.

Those 11 days in January could see a split between SEIU and Culinary, with ramifications that extend beyond the caucus day.

No wonder the state AFL-CIO is sitting this one out.

The other fun thing to watch in those 11 days will be the last-chance campaigns for viability.

After consecutive losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada will be make-or-break for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. Sen. Joe Biden told the Reno Gazette-Journal he'd drop out after Iowa if he placed a distant fourth.

In fact, if neither candidate proves viable in the first two states, you will actually begin to see the top candidates try to peel away their voters.

We're already seeing campaigns dispatch their heavies to Nevada. This week, Clinton chairman Terry McAuliffe hit Winnemucca, Elko and Fernley. One of Romney's five sons was in Reno and Carson City. Dennis Kucinich's wife was in Pahrump, Caliente, Baker, Ely, Fallon and Reno. Richardson was expected back this weekend for his 20th trip, and Obama is expected here tomorrow.

Once Iowa and New Hampshire are done and we're the only immediate show in town, Richardson and Obama could each add 10 campaign days here.

Once we leave the 12 days of Christmas for the 11 days of caucus, Nevada's position could prove the most influential after all.

Contact Erin Neff at eneff@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2906.