VICTOR JOECKS: Trump wins again on illegal immigration

Solving America’s illegal immigration crisis didn’t require amnesty — just better leadership.

On Tuesday, the Center for Immigration Studies released a study showing America’s foreign-born population dropped by 2.2 million from January to July. While the number of naturalized U.S. citizens increased, there was a staggering 1.6 million drop in the illegal immigrant population. The center estimated that this was a 10 percent decline.

The reduction is supported by anecdotal evidence.

“Nurse in U.S. for 40 years self-deports,” a recent Newsweek headline reads.

“Lansing man self deporting to Kenya after 16 years in America,” a Michigan TV station, reported.

In April, the L.A. Times wrote, “More immigrants opt to self-deport rather than risk being marched out like criminals.”

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem says that some foreign leaders have also told her this is happening. “Over and over again, I’m hearing that hundreds of thousands of their citizens are coming home, voluntarily,” she said.

For decades, many Democrats and some Republicans have presented amnesty as the only way to solve the country’s broken immigration system. The Trump administration has taken a lot of flak for trying a different approach. It’s offering $1,000 to illegal immigrants who leave voluntarily. It’s fining illegal immigrants who stay, ramping up arrests and sending some illegals to third countries or Alligator Alcatraz. Like everyone else, illegal immigrants respond to incentives. This mix of carrots and sticks is working. The Trump administration has also closed the southern border.

A decrease in illegal immigration is great news for most Americans. It will increase wages for low-skilled Americans, put downward pressure on housing prices, reduce crime and lower the amount of money Americans spend supporting illegal immigrants.

But it’s terrible news for Democrat. The reduction will likely mean less political power for the party.

That is not a reference to illegal immigrants voting in elections, although that does happen. It’s about the census. Every 10 years, the federal government counts how many people live in the country. Congressional seats are divvied out to states based on those population numbers, which includes both legal and illegal immigrants.

In other words, states with large numbers of illegal immigrants receive extra congressional seats — and Electoral College votes. That list includes blue states such as California and New York, but also red states such as Florida and Texas. Evidence suggests blue states benefit more from this than red states.

Another advantage comes in the drawing of congressional and legislative districts, which are supposed to have a similar number of people. Note: That’s a similar number of residents, not citizens. Illegal immigrants tend to congregate in blue cities. This allows the creation of more districts in deep blue areas. This is one reason GOP districts in Nevada tend to have more registered voters.

It’s unlikely that Trump’s new census excluding illegals will happen anytime soon, but if it did, Democrats would be in significant trouble.

Democrats’ desperate fight against Trump’s deportation efforts has a downside. The New York Times recently interviewed swing voters, including Desmond Smith, a young Black man from Mississippi. He backed Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. Asked how Democrats could appeal to him, he said, “Fight for Americans instead of fighting for everybody else.”

That should be a no-brainer, but for the reasons described above, it’s a tough option for Democrats.

Trump keeps winning on immigration policy and immigration politics.

Contact Victor Joecks at vjoecks@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4698. Follow @victorjoecks on X.