State Democrats converge on Denver

Four years ago as Nevada Democrats prepared to attend their party's national convention in Boston, they had been hammered with the message that they lived in a battleground state.

The nominee and his vice presidential pick had been off touring the country for weeks. At every stage in the nomination process, Nevada Democrats turned out in record numbers and believed in their hearts that 2004 was their year.

It wasn't.

Today, as the Nevada delegation trickles into Denver, the effort to turn the state blue is becoming, slowly, a burden.

Democrats are trouncing Republicans in the ground game -- contacting voters and registering new ones. The state has been reliably blue all year in terms of voter registration and now the Democrats hold a 60,000-vote lead. Given that Republicans carried Nevada in the past two presidential elections by a total of just 21,000 votes, the conventional wisdom would have it that Democrats are the ones to beat here provided those new voters turn out.

Last week when asked to make a November prediction, Harry Reid said he was "confident" Nevada will "do the right thing."

Not exactly a "we're going to turn Nevada blue." And since the Senate majority leader was dead on in his zealous prediction of caucus turnout early this year, party faithful are looking to him for clues.

But Reid's being more practical, relying on polls and the realization that this year, 2008, is going to be a drag-out battle for the Battle Born state.

A poll published in today's Review-Journal shows Republican McCain leading Democrat Obama in Nevada, 46-39, exceeding the poll's 5-point margin of error. But a recent poll by the Reno Gazette-Journal put the race between Obama and Republican John McCain at a statistical tie.

Reno and surrounding Washoe County have gone blue.

But Obama still has trouble with the distaff part of his base, and independent voters have been getting a steady diet this month of claims that Obama is a celebrity who will raise your taxes.

They may like celebrities in Elko, but they sure don't dig taxes -- even if the vast majority of voters would not pay more under an Obama administration.

The Republican Party is so disorganized it couldn't even properly select its delegates to the national convention.

But the GOP typically gets its act together about 72 hours prior to Election Day, all the while hammering the Democratic nominee as an out-of-touch liberal who will raise your taxes.

This year, with their crotchety old nominee, Republicans are sure to also hit hard on Obama's limited experience.

It is against this backdrop that Democrats return to Denver, 100 years since the city first welcomed them.

And the Nevada delegation will come to Colorado split about 60-40 between Obama supporters and those who caucused for Hillary Clinton.

Clinton's most vocal reps during the caucus process are also elected leaders representing many of the older female and working-class, white Democrats who remain peeved about the primary process.

County Commissioners Chris Giunchigliani and Rory Reid will come to Denver pledged to Clinton, but after the symbolic roll call vote, they will certainly work to nominate Obama in another symbolic vote.

While the national conventions are all about symbolism, this year both nominees will attempt to actually make the meetings translate into real time campaign help.

In 2004, John Kerry's slight bump in the polls after Boston was eradicated by the time the GOP finished four nights of flip-flop talk in New York.

This year, the nation has a reason to really tune in to both conventions.

Obama's decision to announce his vice presidential pick just before the convention will lead many to tune in just to see what the prospective veep will say and do.

McCain, fearing another electric speech by Obama, will move to deaden any bounce the Democrats get out of Denver by announcing his vice presidential pick the day after Obama accepts the nomination.

He hopes to control the news cycle moving to St. Paul, and to keep it focused on his criticism of Obama.

For Nevadans, the conventions also hold the Yucca card. In Boston four years ago it was Republican Sen. John Ensign who dominated the news by trying to float a line that Kerry was soft on Yucca Mountain opposition.

Ensign and the Republicans waited for the second day of the convention to unveil an old letter Kerry had signed to keep the waste out of Massachusetts.

If past is prologue, you can bet the GOP will try to move news coverage from Denver to hit Obama as soft on Yucca.

Obama is already on the air here with his second Yucca specific ad. That may be enough to get his message out first. And after all, McCain not only has a record of supporting Yucca, he still advocates it.

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if the Yucca card gets twisted in Denver with Republicans trotting out Obama's past financial contributions from Yucca-proponents in the energy field.

The real key for Democrats in Denver is trying to get out front with Obama's economic message in a way that plays differently than the attacks from the right.

And the real magic will be if voters actually hear them.

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com