Ten races will decide everything

It will all come down to 10 races.

Of the Legislature's 63 seats, 53 are up for election this year. And of those 53 campaigns, about 40 were decided the moment polls closed in Tuesday's primaries.

Nevada's Senate and Assembly districts are so badly gerrymandered, so overloaded with one party's voters, that most are no contest at all.

So each election, the money and the party resources flow to the few districts where both parties have a shot -- where challengers can take out incumbents, where party majorities can be reduced or reversed.

Those scarce competitive districts take on added significance this year. Plummeting revenues and the expiring tax increases of 2009 will force lawmakers to raise taxes or slash spending -- or find a funding solution that combines both -- to balance the state's general fund in 2011. Will there be a tax code restructuring, and will there be public employee retirement reform to go along with it?

Democrats currently hold a two-thirds majority in the Assembly (28-14), the margin needed to pass tax increases and override vetoes. Their Senate majority is 12-9, two seats shy of the threshold that will allow them to completely ignore Republican lawmakers and carry out their agenda regardless of who's elected governor.

And then there's the other little matter of redistricting, where the party in power gets to redraw its own district boundaries and provide itself with as much re-election protection as possible for the next 10 years.

Can the Democrats steal two GOP Senate seats, as they did in 2008? Can Republicans pick up just one seat in the Assembly and hold their line in the lower chamber?

It will all come down to 10 races. Races where registered Republicans and Democrats are about even, and a larger-than-average share of nonpartisan and minor-party voters will decide who goes to Carson City -- and which course the Legislature will follow.

10. Assembly District 29: Incumbent Democrat April Mastroluca vs. Republican Dan Hill. Registered voters: 42 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican, 22 percent other.

Republicans consider the first-term Mastroluca vulnerable in this southeastern Henderson district. Newcomer Hill is one of the GOP's best new, young candidates this cycle.

9. Assembly District 23: Incumbent Republican Melissa Woodbury vs. Democrat Monica Leija Bean. Registered voters: 44 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican, 21 percent other.

Woodbury's name recognition -- she's the daughter of former Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury -- won over a lot of Henderson Democrats two years ago. But Democratic Assembly leaders John Oceguera and Marcus Conklin believe Bean can get those voters back this year. Each gave her $5,000 from their own coffers.

8. Senate District 12: Republican Assemblyman Joe Hardy vs. Democrat Aaron Ford. Registered voters: 39 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican, 21 percent other.

Republican Warren Hardy vacated this seat after voting for the 2009 tax increases. Dr. Joe Hardy (no relation) is a Boulder City institution who fought off a primary challenge from the right, even though he voted against tax hikes. Ford, a lawyer and former schoolteacher, had no primary, allowing him to amass a sizable war chest.

7. Assembly District 22: Incumbent Republican Lynn Stewart vs. Democrat Kevinn Donovan. Registered voters: 39 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican, 21 percent other.

Libertarian spoiler alert: Nathan Santucci, who ran against Stewart in 2008 -- when no Democrat was in the race -- could hurt Stewart's chances of winning a third term in this massive district, which stretches from the southwest valley into Henderson.

6. Senate District 9: Democrat Benny Yerushalmi vs. Republican Elizabeth Halseth. Registered voters: 41 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 22 percent other.

Halseth took out incumbent Republican Sen. Dennis Nolan in the primary by mercilessly attacking his character and his votes to raises taxes. The young secretary will have to run on her own merits against the well-funded Yerushalmi, a small business owner.

5. Assembly District 13: Democrat Louis Desalvio vs. Republican Scott Hammond. Registered voters: 40 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 22 percent other.

Republican Chad Christensen vacated this local seat to make a weak run at Harry Reid. Hammond, a schoolteacher, faces the challenge of running as a political newcomer in the state's largest Assembly district -- one no longer dominated by registered Republicans.

4. Assembly District 40: Republican Pete Livermore vs. Democrat Robin Williamson. Registered voters: 37 percent Democrat, 44 percent Republican, 19 percent other.

This Northern Nevada seat is being vacated by retiring Democrat Bonnie Parnell. Livermore, a longtime Carson City supervisor, has the numbers and the name recognition on his side.

3. Assembly District 21: Incumbent Democrat Ellen Spiegel vs. Republican Mark Sherwood. Registered voters: 39 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican, 21 percent other.

Spiegel is another first-term Democrat made vulnerable by her votes to raise taxes -- after coming out against them during the 2008 campaign. Sherwood, a family magazine publisher, will appeal to this conservative Henderson district.

2. Senate District 5: Incumbent Democrat Joyce Woodhouse vs. Republican Michael Roberson. Registered voters: 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 21 percent other.

Woodhouse is an inviting target. The retired educator voted for record tax hikes last year, then landed a $10,500 consulting contract with the Clark County School District. Roberson, a local attorney, will hit her hard on that issue. Woodhouse currently has a huge fundraising advantage.

1. Senate District 8: Incumbent Republican Barbara Cegavske vs. Democrat Tammy Peterson. Registered voters: 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 20 percent other.

This race will end up being the biggest and most expensive legislative campaign. Cegavske, one of the few champions of small business in Carson City, is being challenged by Peterson, a former prosecutor and current partner with Jones Vargas. Democrats now outnumber Republicans in this Summerlin-area district, but do they really want to get rid of a solid vote against tax increases?

Glenn Cook (gcook@reviewjournal.com) is a Review-Journal editorial writer.