The Democrats’ idea of budget ‘compromise’

At long last, we finally understand what the Legislature's majority Democrats consider a budget compromise.

Conventional wisdom had long held that Democrats, lacking the votes to raise taxes on their own, would have to pass significant government reforms -- for budgeting, education, public employee retirement benefits and collective bargaining, among other areas -- along with a fair redrawing of legislative and congressional districts to pick up Republican support for new spending money.

That was the path to the two-thirds supermajority needed to pass tax hikes and override GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval's promised veto. That was the quid pro quo.

Now we all know better. Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford and Assembly Speaker John Oceguera unveiled their alternative budget for 2011-13 on Thursday, and here's the takeaway:

The Democrats' $7 billion spending plan and $1.5 billion in tax increases -- each would be the largest in Nevada history by a significant margin -- are the compromise because they've long said Nevada needs to spend $8 billion in the coming biennium to avoid becoming a Third-World, post-apocalypse wasteland.

Thus, the $7 billion budget, which boosts current funding levels by roughly $700 million, actually represents a spending cut because Horsford and Oceguera would much rather raise taxes by $2.5 billion, but are showing great restraint.

So, with Horsford and Oceguera making these bold cuts, there will be no accompanying cost-saving, performance-improving government reforms. And the redistricting plan Democrats will send to Sandoval will, of course, be a gerrymandered abomination any judge would laugh out of court.

Can I get a few bars of "Kumbaya"?

Of all the Democrats' failed strategies in Carson City this year, Thursday's long-awaited response to Sandoval's no-new-taxes, $6.1 billion budget is the biggest flop of them all.

For more than three months, Horsford and Oceguera have ignored and intimidated the very Republican lawmakers they needed to pass their highest priority: preserving the jobs, salaries and benefits of state and local public employees. Even now, with less than three weeks to pass tax increases and guarantee themselves a chance to override a Sandoval veto, there has been no outreach to the GOP minority.

In calling for tax increases that dwarf the mass confiscations of the 2003 and 2009 sessions, Horsford and Oceguera now risk driving members of their own party into Sandoval's camp. For the handful of Senate and Assembly Democrats facing tough re-election campaigns in 2012, there's no running away from votes in consecutive sessions to sock it to Nevada taxpayers.

Maybe two Republican Assembly members and three GOP senators could have been persuaded to defect over $400 million in tax increases, $600 million tops, if they got something substantial in return. But $1.5 billion? With no reforms? When Nevada has the country's highest unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates? Horsford and Oceguera might as well have asked for the full $2.5 billion. The odds of either amount making it to Sandoval's desk are the same: zippo.

Now the entire GOP caucus is united behind Sandoval and his veto pen. And there's no going back for Horsford and Oceguera. They're all in for pile-driving the private sector.

So where does that leave the budget? If it isn't passed by adjournment, lawmakers will have to return to work in special session, where the rules change dramatically.

Last week, I laid out the accelerated time line Democrats face if they're serious about raising taxes: If they pass them after Memorial Day weekend, Sandoval can exercise his veto after adjournment on June 7 and thereby delay the override vote until the start of the 2013 session. That's why, if Democrats can't pass tax hikes by May 27, they probably don't do it at all.

Sandoval would control the agenda of a special session. His proclamation would order lawmakers to pass a balanced budget. If he limits their agenda to the budget, then panicked Democrats can't use all the GOP reform bills they've killed this session as carrots. With nothing to offer Republican lawmakers in exchange for their votes to raise taxes, the GOP caucus isn't going to bite. It's back to Sandoval's budget.

But, for the sake of argument, let's say Democrats complete a Hail Mary pass in special session and get the Republican votes they need to raise taxes. Sandoval would veto the bill. And Legislative Counsel Bureau Director Lorne Malkiewich said last week that he doesn't think there is a precedent for a governor vetoing a bill passed in special session.

It's not clear whether Sandoval would be obligated to return a vetoed bill to lawmakers in special session, Malkiewich said. He could simply order lawmakers into a new special session, under the same proclamation, and repeat the process until they pass a budget he'll sign.

Malkiewich said lawmakers, once called into special session, could simply refuse to go home and remain in session until the governor sends back the vetoed budget for an override vote.

Such a scenario would almost certainly have to be decided by the justices of the Nevada Supreme Court, who'll already have to spend part of their summer clearing up who can run in the 2nd Congressional District special election.

This speculation is meant only to highlight how bleak things will get for majority Democrats if they can't get their budget and tax increases passed. I don't see how they can outflank minority Republicans and Sandoval, absent the discovery of some very compromising photographs.

Unless, of course, they're willing to revisit their concept of "compromise."

Glenn Cook (gcook@reviewjournal.com) is a Review-Journal editorial writer.