Belichick cranky, prepared

Even when the New England Patriots are winning, Bill Belichick appears to be in a bad mood. The grumpy, tight-lipped coach barely seems to enjoy being on the right side of a blowout.

Now that things are starting to go wrong for the Patriots, who lost quarterback Tom Brady to a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 and absorbed an embarrassing 25-point beating by the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago, imagine Belichick's disgust.

New England is a 3-point favorite at San Francisco today. Doug Kezirian, the sports director for KTNV (Channel 13), said he expects the defending AFC champions to bounce back.

"Off a bye week, the Patriots approach a major fork in the road. This game will define whether they can make the playoffs or Brady's injury has proved too catastrophic," Kezirian said

"Many regard Belichick as a defensive genius. The bye afforded him two weeks to prepare for San Francisco, and it is time for him to display the abilities that helped him win three Super Bowls."

The 49ers, 2-2 straight up and against the spread, are tied for first in the NFC West. Journeyman quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan is playing well under the guidance of offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

"San Francisco is showing significant improvement," Kezirian said. "But subpar defenses in Arizona and New Orleans limited the Niners in their two losses. The Patriots have aging linebackers but should still be able to perform similarly, terrorizing an offensive line that has surrendered 19 sacks."

New England is 2-12 against the spread in its past 14 games but was a heavy favorite in most of those games. The Patriots are 2-1 straight up and 1-2 against the spread this season.

"They have a new identity, rallying around inexperienced quarterback Matt Cassel," said Kezirian, noting Belichick has covered 13 straight times against NFC West opponents and nine straight times on the road after a loss.

Kezirian (ktnv.com) analyzes the rest of today's Week 5 schedule:

• Indianapolis (-3) at Houston: The Colts (1-2) typically run the table in September, but injuries hit them hard. They used the bye to get healthy, especially on the offensive line. The Colts' defense is much less effective without injured safety Bob Sanders, especially against the run. The Texans (0-3) will exploit that advantage, and this should go over the total (48).

• Tennessee (-3) at Baltimore: These teams' defenses hit hard and force offenses to string together multiple first downs to score. The major difference is at quarterback. Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco has minimal offensive weapons and should struggle with Tennessee's complex schemes. Titans veteran Kerry Collins will avoid mistakes and allow a strong rushing game to score enough points to cover.

• San Diego (-61/2) at Miami: The Dolphins shocked everyone with a resounding victory at New England to match last year's win total. But Bill Parcells sets the bar higher and will stymie the celebration, especially after a bye week. San Diego coach Norv Turner reminded fans of his inept play-calling last weekend, narrowly avoiding an upset loss. But the offense also reminded fans of its potential, scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter. The Chargers have far superior talent but figure to struggle with their second consecutive road game, a cross-country flight and an early start time.

• Kansas City at Carolina (-91/2): The Chiefs restored order last week and defended Arrowhead Stadium with an emotional win over division rival Denver. But Carolina figures to protect the ball better and play much tougher defense. The conservative Panthers typically are poor favorites, but Kansas City's offense might not find the end zone. Expect Carolina to control a low-scoring game.

• Washington at Philadelphia (-6): Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb is not the same without running back Brian Westbrook. Washington looked pathetic in the season opener but has rebounded with three impressive wins. This might be a prime spot for a Redskins letdown, and Philadelphia desperately needs this game. It all hinges on whether Westbrook returns from injury and McNabb can exploit a banged-up Washington secondary.

• Chicago (-31/2) at Detroit: Despite a stumbling economy and soaring gas prices, the Motor City is rejoicing because the Lions finally fired president Matt Millen. While optimism exists for the future, the current players and coaches rank among the NFL's worst. The 2-2 Bears easily could be undefeated, if not for a few plays. The winless Lions are 4-13-1 against the spread in their past 18 division games, and Millen's departure does not solve their inability to stop the run.

• Atlanta at Green Bay (-4): This line has been adjusted because of the status of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (sprained throwing shoulder). Green Bay has lost two in a row and faces rookie quarterback Matt Ryan at Lambeau Field. If young QB Matt Flynn starts for the Packers, expect field goals instead of touchdowns. Both coaches will rely on their talented running backs.

• Seattle at New York Giants (-7): Most experts wrote off last year's Super Bowl victory as a fluke, but the Giants have embraced the underdog label and emerged as arguably the league's best team. Seattle has battled serious injuries, but the offense receives a huge boost with the return of wide receivers Deion Branch and Bobby Engram. New York is without suspended receiver Plaxico Burress and has a knack of playing down to its opponent. But the Giants still have reasonable firepower against this historically awful road team. I like the over (431/2).

• Tampa Bay at Denver (-3): The Broncos rank among the league's highest-scoring teams, but their defense was exposed by a pedestrian Kansas City offense. The Buccaneers' calling card is defense, but quarterback Brian Griese might have a field day against Denver. Look for the tougher Bucs to win a shootout.

• Buffalo at Arizona (-11/2): Buffalo's defense deserves most of the credit for the team's unbeaten start, yielding just 15.8 points per game, but that is a bit deflated by weak opponents. Arizona's potent offense will miss injured wide receiver Anquan Boldin, but quarterback Kurt Warner thrives at home. Look over the total (44).

• Cincinnati at Dallas (-16): Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is expected to start instead of backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, and that makes a huge difference. The Cowboys, smarting from a home loss, should bounce back. It just seems too many points to lay against a Cincinnati team that took the Giants to overtime, assuming Palmer plays.

• Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-5): The Steelers were manhandled Monday, though a few odd plays saved them. But the overtime win against Baltimore cost them more injuries. Pittsburgh is relegated to a third-string running back and has huge holes on the offensive line. The Jaguars will cover behind a strong defense and quarterback David Garrard.

Compiled by Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans.