Desperate Saints capable of turnaround

A feel-good story gone bad, the New Orleans Saints are a mess. Quarterback Drew Brees looks dazed, coach Sean Payton is confused, and running back Deuce McAllister is injured.

It's also obvious that Reggie Bush is overhyped and nowhere near the impact player in the NFL that he was in college.

The Saints ranked No. 1 in the league in total offense last season and rank No. 25 now. An inept offense has overworked the defense.

New Orleans, which lost its first three games by 17, 17 and 31 points, had a bye week to solve some of its problems.

But one of the biggest misconceptions in handicapping is that a bye is a magic elixir. A week off sometimes means a team comes out rusty rather than rested.

Despite all that, the Saints seem to be a solid bet as 3-point home favorites over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

The second-best team in the NFC last season, New Orleans is still a talented team capable of a turnaround. It's also a desperate team, ready to do anything to avoid going 0-4.

Brees, second in Most Valuable Player voting last season, has thrown only one touchdown pass and seven interceptions. He's much better than that, and he's the wild card in this game.

All Brees must do is outplay Panthers quarterback David Carr, who is likely to start with Jake Delhomme bothered by a right elbow injury. A Brees-Carr showdown should be a big advantage for the Saints.

In Carolina's 20-7 home loss to Tampa Bay a week ago, Carr and the Panthers did not cross the Buccaneers' 45-yard line until late in the fourth quarter. That is pathetic.

Carr's presence is enough for me to ignore two ugly trends: The road team is 12-1 against the spread in the series, and Carolina is 18-6-2 as a road underdog.

If Brees, Bush and Payton are worth the hype they received last season, it's time to show it, and the Saints know it.

Four more prayers for Week 5 (home team in CAPS):

• GIANTS (-31/2) over Jets -- Eli Manning is showing a lot of positive signs, but it's the Giants' defensive line that has been most impressive. The Giants sacked Donovan McNabb 12 times last week in a 16-3 victory over Philadelphia. The Jets' defense has produced three sacks in four games.

• Buccaneers (+10) over COLTS -- Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the league in defense and is capable of containing Peyton Manning, especially if the Colts are without injured wide receiver Marvin Harrison, as expected. Bucs quarterback Jeff Garcia, who has not thrown an interception in 90 pass attempts, will cause enough problems for the Indianapolis defense to keep it close.

• PACKERS (-3) over Bears -- Expect a better performance from Chicago quarterback Brian Griese, who was intercepted three times in his first start last week. But injuries riddle the Bears' defense, and Brett Favre has led Green Bay to eight straight wins with a lot of help from an underrated defense.

• BILLS (+101/2) over Cowboys -- A lot of evidence suggests Buffalo can hang with Tony Romo and undefeated Dallas. The Bills are better off with rookie Trent Edwards at quarterback, and on Monday nights, home underdogs of seven or more points are 6-2 against the spread. This also might be a look-ahead situation for the Cowboys, who next host New England in a probable Super Bowl preview.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Season: 8-9-3

Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans can be reached at 387-2907 or myoumans at reviewjournal.com.