Gauging motivation key in late-season matchups

The clock is ticking toward the end of the NFL season, and the dreaded challenge of handicapping Week 17, when some teams rest star players in preparation for the playoffs and other teams mostly are fired up to clean out their lockers.

That puzzle of reading between the lines already has been in play for a while regarding a number of teams.

We know winless Detroit stinks, but at least the Lions remain moderately motivated to avoid being branded as the first 0-16 team in NFL history.

Motivation, however, has not been evident for weeks in Jacksonville, St. Louis and Oakland. Dismal records tell the sordid tale. While the Jaguars, Rams and Raiders are running for the bus, they have sent bettors sprinting to the windows to play against them. Against the spread, Oakland is 5-8, St. Louis 4-9 and Jacksonville 3-10.

Despite the fact that Kansas City and Seattle have been able to celebrate victory only twice this year, there remains at least a hint of effort from the Chiefs and Seahawks.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants odds director Tony Sinisi said oddsmakers are wary of teams that have quit and look to identify them and react to the telltale signs in short order.

"We try and make the bettors, who are dead set on playing against these vulnerable teams, pay a premium price," Sinisi said. "In this parlay card world, we don't want to give them a free space on their bingo card."

It stands to reason with struggling teams that major issues have been at the top of the food chain.

The Jaguars, a hot preseason pick, have been in utter disarray under coach Jack Del Rio. He lost the team, but his job appears safe for now. The Rams replaced Scott Linehan with Jim Haslett, and the Al Davis circus in Oakland made Tom Cable the ringmaster.

San Francisco has had recent success with interim coach Mike Singletary. But in many, if not most instances, the head guy with an interim tag signals a Band-Aid has been placed on a gaping head wound.

"If there is vulnerability with the head coach, the players sense that and smell blood in the water," Sinisi said.

When on the prowl for teams that have packed it in, Sinisi focuses on a specific aspect of the game that produces a code red. "I usually see teams roll over on defense, especially when trying to stop the run," he said.

Rightly so, the best game this week gets top billing tonight, when the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants. The Cowboys are 3-point home favorites.

The defending Super Bowl champion Giants (11-2) have been on cruise control and seemed a mortal lock to possess home-field advantage in the NFC. Not so fast.

The Carolina Panthers (10-3) are breathing down the Giants' neck, with the teams set to square off next week at the Meadowlands.

Despite having the opportunity to drive a spike in the heart of the Cowboys' playoff chances, it can be argued this is a look-ahead spot, with everything for New York possibly riding on the outcome of next week's game with Carolina.

LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba said too many factors are involved in the heated Cowboys-Giants rivalry to think that anything other than a knock-down fight should be expected.

"Coming off the loss last week to the Eagles, and the fact that Dallas is the opposition, the Giants will be much more focused," Seba said. "They have to be given a mini-pass for last week with the Plaxico Burress distraction an obvious factor in their loss."

As for the Cowboys, their season might hang in the balance, and owner Jerry Jones was shooting off his mouth during the week about running back Marion Barber's absence in the lineup at Pittsburgh.

"Barber will be highly motivated tonight," Seba said. "As a team, this is basically a playoff game for the Cowboys, and they certainly have revenge on their minds from recent defeats at the hands of the Giants."

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Hear the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 4 p.m. on Fox Sports Radio (920 AM). Visit vegassportsconnect.com for more odds information.