UFC 200 fight-by-fight breakdown

A breakdown of the fights at UFC 200 on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena:

Miesha Tate (18-5) vs. Amanda Nunes (12-4)

• Class: For Tate’s women’s bantamweight title

• Line: Tate minus-260

• Storyline: Tate, a Las Vegan, is one of the sport’s most resilient fighters. That could serve her well, as the key to her retaining the belt might be surviving the early onslaught. Nunes is powerful and aggressive, but she has trouble maintaining that pace. Tate needs to find a way to slow the fight and wear down Nunes. There’s probably value betting on Nunes as perhaps the more talented fighter overall, but Tate is as tough as they come and she’s not going to let that belt go easily.

• Pick: Tate by decision

Brock Lesnar (5-3) vs. Mark Hunt (12-10-1)

• Class: Heavyweight

• Line: Hunt minus-170

• Storyline: He’s back. Brock Lesnar hasn’t fought since 2011, but he has always itched to return because he thought he was robbed of his prime fighting years by a bout with diverticulitis that sapped him of his strength. The bigger problem was that he also was hindered by an inability to take a punch. That probably hasn’t changed. Lesnar is a physical freak, and when he was at his best, he could absolutely maul the best heavyweights. The belief is he might be in control of this fight until Hunt lands one big shot and then it all changes. At some point, Hunt will land that punch.

• Pick: Hunt by first-round knockout

Daniel Cormier (17-1) vs. Anderson Silva (33-7-0, 1 No Contest)

• Class: Light heavyweight

• Line: Cormier minus-400

• Storyline: What a turn of events. Cormier was supposed to put his belt on the line against his bitter rival and the best fighter in the world, Jon Jones. Instead, he finds himself against the man Jones surpassed for that hypothetical title. Silva got sick and had to have his gallbladder removed, forcing him out of a fight in May. He said he hasn’t been training much and took this fight Thursday. He also doesn’t have an official win since 2012. But it’s Anderson Silva. He obviously has a chance to confound Cormier with his speed and elusiveness. It’s just not likely. Even though Cormier has been preparing for a different style, he should be able to go back to his roots and overpower Silva with his exceptional wrestling and may be able to finish on the ground.

• Pick: Cormier by third-round knockout

Jose Aldo (25-2) vs. Frankie Edgar (19-4-1)

• Class: For interim featherweight title

• Line: Edgar minus-120

• Storyline: Aldo was a juggernaut in the division for so long, but his 13-second knockout loss to Conor McGregor in December has raised questions about his ability to mentally bounce back. That may be all the edge Edgar needs. Edgar utilizes great movement in the standup and has started to add more power to his repertoire. He wasn’t far behind Aldo during their first meeting in 2013, a competitive bout awarded to Aldo by the judges. Edgar has improved steadily since and is in prime position to take the interim belt.

• Pick: Edgar by third-round knockout

Cain Velasquez (13-2) vs. Travis Browne (18-3-1)

• Class: Heavyweight

• Line: Velasquez minus-290

• Storyline: This should be a true test of whether the phenomenon of “sea-level Cain” is a real thing. One of the best-conditioned heavyweights the UFC has seen, Velasquez lost his belt with an awful performance against Fabricio Werdum last year in which he looked exhausted minutes into the fight in Mexico City. He had famously said before the fight that he wasn’t going to arrive early to acclimate himself because it wasn’t necessary. He would live to regret that decision. There is a common theory that when altitude is not a factor, Velasquez is still the unquestioned best heavyweight in the UFC. While Las Vegas is at a bit of an elevation, the altitude generally doesn’t impact fights. Browne is extremely athletic and should be a good test.

• Pick: Velasquez by second-round knockout

Cat Zingano (9-1) vs. Julianna Pena (8-2)

• Class: Women’s bantamweight

• Line: Zingano minus-175

• Storyline: Two of the most aggressive fighters on the entire roster. This has all the potential to steal the show. Zingano has battled personal issues and a long layoff after a 14-second loss to Ronda Rousey. Pena is extremely talented but has missed a lot of time with injuries, and the lack of getting into a rhythm has limited her progression.

• Pick: Pena by decision

Johny Hendricks (17-4) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (12-2)

• Class: Welterweight

• Line: Hendricks minus-125

• Storyline: Hendricks again missed weight Friday. The former champion had trouble against Stephen Thompson, but should find himself more comfortable against a wrestler with boxing skills similar to himself instead of a flashy striker such as Thompson. Hendricks still has that big left hand that can change the fight in an instant, but he didn’t look good at the weigh-in.

• Pick: Gastelum by decision

T.J. Dillashaw (12-3) vs. Raphael Assuncao (23-4)

• Class: Bantamweight

• Line: Dillashaw minus-410

• Storyline: Assuncao has won seven straight fights, but has not competed since October 2014 because of a severe ankle injury. This is not an easy opponent to return against. While Dillashaw lost his belt in his last fight, his movement makes him difficult to figure out. It certainly will be a challenge to Assuncao’s surgically repaired ankle.

• Pick: Dillashaw by decision

Sage Northcutt (7-1) vs. Enrique Marin (9-3)

• Class: Lightweight

• Line: Northcutt minus-340

• Storyline: This feels like a way for UFC matchmakers to get Northcutt back on track. One of the most hyped fighters to emerge on the scene since Conor McGregor, the 20-year-old suffered a shocking loss when he fell into a submission in January. He blames the loss entirely on an illness and is ready to move on. While he may have been exposed, Marin might not be the one to exploit those weaknesses.

• Pick: Northcutt by first-round knockout

Diego Sanchez (28-8) vs. Joe Lauzon (25-12)

• Class: Lightweight

• Line: Lauzon minus-115

• Storyline: This matchup was made for the sole reason these are two of the most reliably exciting fighters in the organization. It’s a wildly unpredictable matchup as they are so willing to brawl. Lauzon would have an edge if they go to the ground.

• Pick: Lauzon by second-round submission

Gegard Mousasi (38-6-2) vs. Thiago Santos (13-3)

• Class: Middleweight

• Line: Mousasi minus-275

• Storyline: Mousasi is incredibly talented, even though he is often so casual in the cage that he almost looks bored. This might be an even stronger pick if Mousasi hadn’t spent so much of his time the past two days lobbying to replace Jones against Cormier.

• Pick: Mousasi by third-round submission

Jim Miller (25-8-0, 1 NC) vs. Takanori Gomi (35-11-0, 1 NC)

• Class: Lightweight

• Line: Miller minus-270

• Storyline: A good matchup more for their names and accomplishments than current form. Miller is a tough submission ace who has dropped four of his past five fights. Gomi has 13 knockout victories in his storied career, but has been knocked out in the first round of his past two fights.

• Pick: Miller by second-round submission

Contact reporter Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com or 702-224-5509. Follow him on Twitter: @adamhilllvrj