Chevys look primed to win eighth straight Brickyard 400

No matter how hard you try, it’s tough to make a case for any manufacturer other than Chevy to win Sunday’s Brickyard 400 at the storied grounds of Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Not only does history point to a Chevy win, but the actual performance during Saturday’s qualifying and final practice sessions all lean to the guys with bow ties.

You can make a slight case for Kasey Kahne, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin or Kurt Busch, who represent the best their manufacturers have to offer, but it will be a tough hill to climb to get past all the great Chevys. It’s not just because a Chevy has won the last seven Brickyard 400s, or that nine of the top-10 qualifiers are Chevys; rather it has more to do with the sheer volume of quality performances during practice by those driving the Impalas.
 
Friday’s two practices and Saturday's qualifying session were dominated by Juan Pablo Montoya. He lit up the boards with fastest laps during each of the two practice sessions and then went out and laid down the fastest lap in qualifying for the pole. The 2000 Indy 500 winner not only has a fast car this week, but he has unfinished business at the Brickyard as well, making him a top candidate to win Sunday. It still burns Montoya that he was penalized late in last year's race while leading. He put on an awesome display while leading 116 laps, only to finish a disappointing 11th.
 
Montoya wasn’t as impressive during Saturday’s post-qualifying practice while running exclusively in race trim as opposed to Friday’s top laps while in qualifying trim, but it’s going to be tough for someone to take away Position 1 throughout the day just because it’s his kind of track. The flat, sweeping left turns of Indy suit Montoya well and in many ways make entering and exiting the turns similar to a road course. 
 
Montoya’s teammate, Jamie McMurray, will start fourth and is using the same car that finished runner-up in the Coca-Cola 600 in May. The duo will attempt to give car owner Chip Ganassi an unprecedented triple crown of sorts by winning the race. No car owner has ever won the Daytona 500 and Indy 500 in the same year as Ganassi did this year, and adding that third prestigious trophy to the case would be the ultimate gift any driver could give his owner.    
 
The most impressive group of cars during the final practice sessions came from the trio of Childress drivers led by Jeff Burton. Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick each had solid practices as well, giving all three drivers at least one session where they were no worse than third-fastest. For Burton, his practices were equally similar to Pocono, where he had a strong run despite finishing seventh. Burton was fastest during the first session and second-best during happy hour, and it’s not so coincidental that he’s using the exact same chassis he did at Pocono.
 
Two of the bigger underlying themes coming into the race involve Chevy drivers Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon and the all-time track records they could shatter. The Brickyard has been in existence for over 100 years and this week's race is only the 17th time NASCAR has had the honor of racing on it. But Gordon and Johnson could enter some hollowed territory should either of them win.
 
If Johnson wins Sunday, he would become the only driver — in Indy cars or stock cars — to win three straight races on the oval of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Michael Schumacher won the USGP four straight times on the infield road course and five overall. Jeff Gordon could tie Schumacher’s all-time facility mark with a win and pass A.J. Foyt, Al Unser and Rick Mears, whom he is currently tied with at four wins on the oval, a list Johnson is also attempting to join this week.
 
Johnson and Gordon also share a common bond with their past wins resulting in championships. Gordon has won the Sprint Cup title in two of the four years he’s won on the Bricks, while each of Johnson’s three wins have resulted in a title. Gordon and Johnson are part of an elite group in that area as well. Only two of the 16 Brickyard 400 races have been won by drivers who haven’t won a Championship — Kevin Harvick and Ricky Rudd, and in eight of the 16 instances, drivers that won the race also won the title the same year.
 
Based on the final practice sessions, neither Johnson or Gordon look to be top contenders, but they are a must for consideration just because of their history. Johnson’s final practice looked similar to what he did at Pocono, where he finished fifth, and he’s using the same chassis this week. Gordon’s practice didn’t raise any eyebrows, and was actually kind of mediocre, but it’s very reminiscent to his practices from 2004, the last time he won on the track.            
 
Mark Martin will use the same car this week that led 14 laps and finished runner-up in last year's Brickyard 400. He’s one of only four drivers to have competed in all 16 NASCAR races at Indy and has done very well compiling six top-five finishes, with a 13.4 average finish. He is one of the few, like Burton, who had terrific practices for both Friday and Saturday sessions. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book has Martin listed at 40 to 1, which is easily the best value on the board.   
 
Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman are both teammates who drive Chevys and hail from Indiana. Newman looked the stronger of the two in practice, but Stewart is never someone to gauge on mere practice times because he always seems to do better than what he practiced. And when it comes to the Brickyard, Stewart gets greedy. He’s a two-time winner on his home track and holds the track record for best average finish at 8.5. If using Pocono as a model comparison because of the similarities between the horsepower needed on the long straightaways and the proper balance needed on the flat turns -- a race where Stewart finished third -- then he should be OK for this race despite his practice times.
 
Toyota's hopes lie within an unsuspecting source. Usually, it’s either Denny Hamlin or Kyle Busch who give the manufacturer the best chance to win. But this week it rests with Martin Truex Jr., who was the fastest during happy hour. Michael Waltrip Racing already gained an impressive win two weeks ago at Chicago, but a win at the Brickyard would be a little sweeter for the team making serious noise against all the mega-teams in NASCAR.     
 
As for Hamlin, he has been in a bit of a tailspin since winning at Michigan six weeks ago. After getting five wins in the first 15 races, Hamlin has experienced finishes of 34th, 14th and 24th over the last four races. It all started with an awful run at Sonoma, where Hamlin admittedly said the team didn’t do any type of testing and didn’t take the race seriously because the road courses represent only two races a year. While the logic may appear sound, the lackadaisical preparation for that race carried over into other places where he should have run well.
 
Hamlin should be in good shape this week because of Indy’s flat surface. On the similar track of Pocono, Hamlin has four career wins, including a victory there this season. During Saturday’s early practice session, Hamlin looked strong as he ran the most laps and had great average speeds. It was a little surprising to see that Hamlin didn’t bring his Pocono chassis this week because the tracks are so similar and because Hamlin has dominated every race with that car going, three-for-three in wins. His practice was good, but there would definitely be more comfort if he had his money car. 
 
The ugly duckling of NASCAR this year has been Ford, which has gone winless through the first 19 races — the longest such drought since 1977. A Ford also hasn’t won at the Brickyard since 1999, when Dale Jarrett turned the trick. Ford's hopes this week rest with Kasey Kahne who had the quickest average lap speeds during happy hour among all drivers that ran at least 20 laps. Kahne is using his Michigan chassis that finished second.
 
The trio of Penske Dodges didn’t stand out in any practice session. Dodge's hope for gaining a win is with Kurt Busch, who will be using his winning Coca-Cola 600 chassis. Even though Dodge is the last non-Chevy to win at Indy, it doesn’t look promising this week.
 
Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
 
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Brickyard 400
Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Sunday, July 25 — 10:16 a.m. PDT; ESPN (30)
Rating  Driver                  Odds       Practice 1    Practice 2    Qualifying   Practice 3    Practice 4
1. Jeff Burton                    18/1             6th               19th              10th               1st                2nd                                             
Using same chassis that had a strong run at Pocono. Most impressive during Saturday's practices.                   
2. Juan Pablo Montoya    5/1              1st                1st                 1st               14th              18th
The 2000 Indy 500 winner led 116 laps in last year's race. Debuting new chassis this week.                              
3. Jimmie Johnson           9/4              2nd                5th               2nd              13th               6th 
Won the last two Indy races; has three overall. Using fifth-place Pocono chassis this week.                                     
4. Kevin Harvick              15/1            33rd               6th                 9th                3rd              12th                        
Won 2003 Indy race; has career average finish of 10.8 in nine races. Using Dover chassis.
5. Tony Stewart                10/1           10th               26th              15th              19th              27th 
Two-time Indy winner; one of two drivers with a career average finish in top 10 (8.5).                                   
6. Mark Martin                   40/1           15th                3rd                3rd                 8th               5th                            
Using same chassis that led 14 laps en route to runner-up finish in last year's Indy race.
7. Clint Bowyer                 20/1           13th                4th                6th                2nd               3rd                          
Debuting new chassis this week. Best career Indy finish was fourth-place during rookie season.
8. Jeff Gordon                    9/1             17th              17th               8th                18th             15th 
Leads all driver with four Indy wins, the last coming in 2004. Has career average finish of 8.6.                                     
9. Kasey Kahne               15/1            16th              13th              24th                4th                8th                                    
Fastest average speeds during happy hou. Using chassis that finished runner-up at Michigan.
10. Denny Hamlin           10/1              9th               18th             18th                18th             10th                                   
Won at similar track of Pocono this year. Best career finish at Indy was third-place in 2008.
Note: The one track similar to Indy on the circuit is Pocono because of the long straightaways and flat, sweeping turns each possess.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for multiple publications covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@Gmail.com.
 
DRIVER QUOTES
 
MARK MARTIN ON RACING AT INDIANAPOLIS MOTOR SPEEDWAY: "When NASCAR first started coming to Indy, I thought it was a mistake. I knew what it would mean to the sport to have a race there, but I just didn't think it would happen. I didn't think this type of car, a stock car, would be good on that kind of track. I can honestly say now that I was wrong. I love going back to Indy to race. It's been a tremendous addition to the NASCAR schedule, and I think it's great for all of the stock car fans that NASCAR races on that track."
 
JEFF GORDON ON WHERE HIS FOUR BRICKYARD 400 WINS RANK ON A PERSONAL LEVEL: "They're huge for me. I wasn't born there, but went to high school there, growing up there. Not just that, but being born in California, racing was everything to me. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the Indy 500, guys like Rick Mears and A.J. Foyt, Johnny Rutherford, Al Unser, all those guys were heroes of mine that I aspired to be. Living in Indiana, racing around Indiana, Indianapolis Raceway Park, the fairgrounds, Bloomington, all over the place, it was every short track, open-wheel, Sprint Cup driver's dream to race at Indianapolis one day. To be able to do that in the very first-ever stock car race there, NASCAR race in '94, win it, then go on to win it three more times is something that I probably put up as the highest accomplishments of my career."
 
BRICKYARD 400 ODDS & ENDS
 
History
· Indianapolis Motor Speedway has existed since 1909, and is the original "Speedway," the first racing facility to incorporate the word into its name.
· With a permanent seating capacity for more than 250,000-plus people and infield seating that raises capacity to an approximate 400,000, it is the largest and highest-capacity sporting facility in history.
 
Notebook
· There have been 16 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway since the first race in 1994.
· Four drivers have competed in all 16 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
· Rick Mast won the first pole in 1994.
· Jeff Gordon won the 1994 inaugural race.
· There have been 13 different pole winners.
· Jeff Gordon leads all pole winners with three.
· Nine drivers have won, led by Jeff Gordon with four victories.
· Jimmie Johnson (three), Dale Jarrett and Tony Stewart (two each) are the other multiple winners.
· Hendrick Motorsports has won seven races, more than any other organization.
· Eight races have been won from a top-five starting position.
· The furthest back a race winner has started at Indianapolis was 27th, by Jeff Gordon in 2001.
· Two of the past three races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
· Two drivers have won from the pole: Kevin Harvick in 2003 and Jimmie Johnson in 2008.
· Dale Jarrett (1996) and Jimmie Johnson (2006) are the only drivers to win both the Daytona 500 and the Allstate 400 at The Brickyard in the same season.
· Tony Stewart (8.5) and Jeff Gordon (8.6)are the only active drivers to average a top-10 finish.
· Three of the last four Indianapolis races ending under green had a margin of victory under one second.
· Fourteen of the 16 races have been won by a past, reigning or future NASCAR Sprint Cup champion. The only two that were not: Ricky Rudd in 1997 and current points leader Kevin Harvick in 2003.
· The winner of the Indianapolis race has won the championship in the same year eight times in the 16 years the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has raced there:
2009: Jimmie Johnson
2008: Jimmie Johnson
2006: Jimmie Johnson
2005: Tony Stewart
2001: Jeff Gordon
2000: Bobby Labonte
1999: Dale Jarrett
1998: Jeff Gordon
 
NASCAR in Indiana
· There have been 18 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races in Indiana.
· 75 NASCAR national series drivers (all-time) have their home state recorded as Indiana.
· There have been 10 race winners from Indiana in NASCAR’s three national series:

Indianapolis Motor Speedway Data
Race # 20 of 36 (7-25-10)
Track Size: 2.5 miles
Race Length: 400 miles (160 laps)
Banking/Corners: 9 degrees
Banking/Straights: 0 degrees
 
Driver Rating at Indianapolis
Tony Stewart                 111.8
Jimmie Johnson            104.9
Mark Martin                   104.8
Juan Pablo Montoya     102
Jeff Gordon                   96.2
Matt Kenseth                 93.6
Denny Hamlin                93.3
Jeff Burton                     93.1
Kyle Busch                    92.8
Kevin Harvick                91.9
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (5 total) at Indianapolis.
 
 
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Mark Martin (182.054 mph, 49.436 seconds)
2009 race winner: Jimmie Johnson, 145.882 mph, 7-26-09)
Track qualifying record: Casey Mears (186.293 mph, 48.311 secs., 8-7-04)
Track race record: Bobby Labonte (155.912 mph, 8-5-00)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 30-32 laps, based on fuel mileage
 
 
LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK ODDS TO WIN
BRICKYARD 400--Adjusted after Friday's Practices
INDIANAPOLIS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, JULY 25, 2010
JIMMIE JOHNSON 9-4
KYLE BUSCH 10
JEFF GORDON 9
DENNY HAMLIN 10
JEFF BURTON 18
KEVIN HARVICK 15
MATT KENSETH 35
CARL EDWARDS 35
GREG BIFFLE 35
KURT BUSCH 18
MARK MARTIN 40
TONY STEWART 10
CLINT BOWYER 20
JUAN MONTOYA 5
KASEY KAHNE 15
JOEY LOGANO 40
RYAN NEWMAN 40
MARTIN TRUEX JR 50
JAMIE McMURRAY 20
DALE EARNHARDT JR 50
BRAD KESELOWSKI 100
DAVID REUTIMANN 50
REED SORENSON 100
DAVID RAGAN 200
AJ ALLMENDINGER 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 200
SAM HORNISH JR 200
ELLIOTT SADLER 500
REGAN SMITH 1000
PAUL MENARD 300
SCOTT SPEED 500
BOBBY LABONTE 2000
TRAVIS KVAPIL 3000
FIELD 300