Ford’s new FR9 engine and Jimmie Johnson headline Sunday’s race at Michigan

So what's the deal with Jimmie Johnson at Michigan? There is no rhyme or reason to why he hasn't won on the 2-mile sister track of California. Even though Michigan is slightly steeper than California in the turns, the D-shaped tracks are almost identical. Yet Johnson has won five times in Fontana with no wins at the Brooklyn, Mich. facility.

Just the fact that Johnson hasn't won on a downforce track that runs on the circuit is somewhat shocking. There are only five tracks that Johnson hasn't won on and, of those, Michigan is the only track that is run twice a year. We wouldn't expect wins on the road courses yet; Miami and Chicago will eventually come. But he's had 16 cracks at Michigan and we're in the midst of his 10th season on tour and the winner's circle keeps eluding him.

In those 16 starts, Johnson has managed an average finish of 16th, but his past performance on paper doesn't tell the whole story. Even though he's only had two top-five finishes at the track over his career, he's still been one of the best there -- especially in recent history. Last season, he dominated at Michigan only to run into fuel problems late in both races -- a common theme with Michigan races. Overall, Johnson has completed 96% of his competition laps at Michigan and has led 510 of them -- many of which came in last season's races.

Since NASCAR started keeping NASCAR loop data in 2004, Carl Edwards has the cumulative best rating in a system that factors in everything such as laps led and quality passes. Edwards' Michigan rating of 112.5 is just barely ahead of Johnson's 111.0 even though Edwards has won twice over that span and has an all-time best career average finish of 6.1. Over the 10 races that the loop data covers, Johnson has managed only one top-five finish, which shows just how good, but unfortunate, he's been at Michigan.

Based on Johnson's practice and qualifying efforts in preparation for this Sunday's Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400, he looks to have perhaps his best run ever at Michigan this week. Beyond all the hype surrounding the coincidence that he hasn't won a race since the new spoiler has been put in place by NASCAR, Johnson should have his best run ever. The chassis he's using this week was runner-up at Texas with the new spoiler and won in its debut at Las Vegas with the older winged spoiler. He's already checked Bristol off his "things to do the list" this season and now it's time for Michigan.

Fuel mileage always plays a big part in the late stages at Michigan and it looks to be the only way to keep Johnson from having his best career run, much to the dismay of the Ford group which was kept winless at Michigan last year for the first time since 2001.

Ford has always dominated Michigan which has kept its executives in Motor City beaming with pride over the years. Last year, a Chevy won this race with, of all dreaded things, a Toyota winning in the fall for the first time ever. Motor City wasn't too excited about the foreigners winning on their playground, but the reality of the deal is that there are more Toyota Camry's manufactured in the United States than all three other models combined that race in the Sprint Cup series.

If the Ford, Dodge, and Chevy executives didn't like what they saw last year with Brian Vickers winning, they may really be in for a treat this week with Joe Gibbs Racing running at peak capacity, coming in with NASCAR's hottest drivers -- Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. They finished 1-2 last week at Pocono and they each have the look of a champion as it appears only a matter of time before they topple points leader and sitting duck, Kevin Harvick, for the lead heading into the Chase for the Championship.

While Hamlin is sizzling hot with four wins in his last nine starts, Kyle Busch has had eight straight races top-10 finishes, taking him near the top of the leader board, only 19 points from Harvick.

The best chance that Ford has this week lies with its new FR9 engine which will be in each of its cars Sunday. The engine has been used sparingly even though it‘s been ready since last fall at Talladega, but based on practice, the FR9 looks to be just the ticket Ford needs to get back into the winner's circle.

Roush-Fenway Racing has tied for a track-record 11 Sprint Cup wins, but comes in this week without a victory on the season. Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle haven't won since 2008 and Matt Kenseth hasn't won since winning at California last February. Based on practice and the horsepower the new engine is producing, this could be their best chance at winning since Kenseth's wins.

Two other Fords looked strong Saturday in practice as well using the new engine. Kasey Kahne and Paul Menard each put in impressive times with Menard leading the way on single-lap speeds while Kahne was strong in average lap times.

Jeff Gordon has the look of being someone to crash the party this week while searching for his first win since Texas last season. He had a stellar practice Friday and Saturday and has been one of the better drivers on all downforce tracks since last season. On the combined efforts at Michigan and California last season, Gordon finished runner-up in all four races.

Kurt Busch is a two-time Michigan winner, having the distinction of being able to say he's won in both a Dodge and Ford. He'll be starting from the pole and has fared very well on the downforce track this year, which includes wins at Texas and Atlanta.

Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings

Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:

• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend's Sprint Cup race

• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad

• Driver tendencies at certain tracks

• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track

• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car -- or bad luck? These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or matchup and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.

Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400
Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, Mich.
Sunday, June 13 -- 10:16 a.m. PDT

Rating	Driver	Odds	Practice 1	Qualifying	Practice 2	Practice 3
1.	Jimmie Johnson	13/5	2nd	2nd	4th	1st

Using chassis that won at Las Vegas and was runner-up at Texas. One of five tracks with no wins.

Carl Edwards

30/1

19th

2nd

9th

Two career Michigan wins with an average finish of 6.1. Last career win came at Homestead in 2008.

Jeff Gordon

8/1

5th

6th

5th

4th

Finished runner-up in both 2009 Michigan races. Outstanding on all downforce tracks last two seasons.

Matt Kenseth

30/1

36th

39th

6th

Two-time Michigan winner. Using chassis that nearly won at Michigan (bumped late by Gordon).

Kurt Busch

7/1

3rd

1st

8th

7th

Two-time Michigan winner, one each in a Ford and Dodge. Using third-place Darlington chassis.

Greg Biffle

30/1

4th

16th

15th

11th

Two-time Michigan winner; led 42 laps and finished fifth in this race last year.

Kyle Busch

6/1

42nd

15th*

10th

32nd

Best career Michigan finish was runner-up in fall of 2008. Top-10 finish in last eight 2010 starts.

Kevin Harvick

20/1

29th

31st

9th

5th

Using chassis that was runner-up in Las Vegas. Career average finish of 15.2 at Michigan.

Denny Hamlin

8/1

23rd

7th

11th

3rd

Four wins in last nine 2010 starts. Average finish of 13.3 in eight Michigan starts.

10.

Paul Menard

500/1

33rd

21st

1st

2nd

*Kyle Busch engine change following qualifying forces start position from the rear.

Note: Michigan 2-mile layout is similar to Fontana, Calif.

Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Micah Roberts, a former race and sports director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for multiple publications covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@Gmail.com.

Driver Quotes

Kurt Busch on Racing at Michigan International Speedway:

“It's just a fun place to race. Its wide-open racing and you can run from top to bottom. The biggest thing is just trying to get grip there. Some guys are able to get it, other guys can't. You can get it for maybe five laps and then you're just out to lunch. The biggest thing is, just trying to make your car comfortable and make it last throughout a whole tire run and, of course, make it fast, too. And the wide racetrack is good. That's what makes Michigan so exciting and so fun. That's the biggest deal about it. For me, coming to Michigan, I tend to run well there. For whatever reason, I haven't had too many great finishes to show for it, but the biggest deal is trying to finish and finish up front.”

Joey Logano on task at hand this week:

"From my perspective, last week was last week. My focus is Michigan and Kentucky. We finished seventh at Michigan last August and feel like we can at least do that well here this weekend and hope to even improve on that. Michigan was one of the tracks where I felt like we made huge gains the second time around and so far this year we've continued to get better when we go back to tracks for the third time. We're 100 (or so) points out of the Chase and every race is going to be important to make up ground and be in contention when Richmond comes around."

Kurt Busch of the importance of racing at Michigan:

"When we race at Michigan, we're right there in the backyard of all the ‘Big Three' auto manufacturers and everyone wants to win for the brand they represent. When we get out there on Sunday for the race, it's like all the manufacturers have moved their temporary headquarters to Brooklyn, Mich., for the day. We'll be doing everything we possibly can to put our Dodge Charger into the winner's circle and party down with all our great friends at Dodge."

Michigan Odds and Ends: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400

History

• Michigan International Speedway sits on more than 1,400 acres in the Irish Hills of Southeastern Michigan. Groundbreaking took place on Sept. 28, 1967.

•The first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Michigan was held June 15, 1969.

•The track was known as Michigan Speedway during the time Roger Penske was the primary owner (1996-99).

Notebook

• There have been 81 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Michigan International Speedway since the first race there in 1969. Other than 1973, which had just one race, there have been two races each season since 1969.

• The first race was 500 miles in length; the second was scheduled for 600. The track was remeasured to 2.04 miles for the last race in 1970 and both races in 1971 – with the race distance being 402 miles. All other races have been scheduled for 400 miles.

• Donnie Allison won the first pole.

• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was won by Cale Yarborough.

• There have been 39 different pole winners.

• Brian Vickers has won the last three poles.

• Thirty-one different drivers have won races, led by David Pearson (nine); 18 drivers have more than one victory there.

• The race winner has started from the pole 16 times, the most productive starting position. Brian Vickers (last August)was the last driver to win from the pole.

• Sixty-three of 81 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 45 from the first four spots. However, four of the last five winners have started outside the top 10.

• The deepest in the field a race winner has started was 32nd, by Mark Martin in last season's June race.

• The Wood Brothers and Roush Fenway Racing both have 11 wins, more than any other car owners.

• Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth are the only drivers to average a top-10 finish. Edwards, who has two Michigan wins, has an average finish of 6.1. Coincidentally, Edwards' first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start came at Michigan. Kenseth, who also has two victories, has an average finish of 9.9.

NASCAR in Michigan

• There have been 86 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Michigan.

• Ninety-five drivers in NASCAR's three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Michigan.

• There have been eight race winners from Michigan in NASCAR's three national series:

Driver	NSCS	NNS	NCWTS
Paul Goldsmith	9	0	0
Brad Keselowski	1	9	0
Johnny Benson	1	3	14
Tim Fedewa	0	4	0
Butch Miller	0	2	1
Jack Sprague	0	1	28
Tracy Leslie	0	1	0
Bob Keselowski	0	0	1

Michigan International Speedway Data

Race # 15 of 36 (6-13-10)

Track Size: 2 miles

• Race Length: 400 miles

• Banking/Corners: 18 degrees

• Banking/Frontstretch: 12 degrees

• Banking/Backstretch: 5 degrees

Driver Rating at Michigan
Carl Edwards	112.5
Jimmie Johnson	111.0
Greg Biffle	103.5
Matt Kenseth	103.1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	99.1
Kurt Busch	96.5
Jeff Gordon	96.3
Tony Stewart	95.0
Brian Vickers	93.6
Kyle Busch	93.1

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (10 total) at Michigan.

Qualifying/Race Data

2009 pole winner: Brian Vickers, 189.110 mph, 38.073 seconds

2009 race winner: Mark Martin, 155.491 mph, 6-14-09)

Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (194.232 mph, 37.069 seconds, (6-18-05)

Track race record: Dale Jarrett (173.997 mph, 6-13-99)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 40-44 laps, based on fuel mileage.

NASCAR Odds to Win From The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book

HELUVA GOOD! SOUR CREAMS DIPS 400 -- Adjusted after Qualifying

MICHIGAN INT'L SPEEDWAY

SUNDAY, JUNE 13, 2010

JIMMIE JOHNSON	13-5
KYLE BUSCH	6
JEFF GORDON	8
DENNY HAMLIN	8
JEFF BURTON	12
KEVIN HARVICK	20
MATT KENSETH	30
CARL EDWARDS	30
GREG BIFFLE	30
KURT BUSCH	7
MARK MARTIN	30
TONY STEWART	20
CLINT BOWYER	20
JUAN MONTOYA	25
KASEY KAHNE	25
JOEY LOGANO	25
RYAN NEWMAN	40
MARTIN TRUEX JR	30
JAMIE McMURRAY	20
DALE EARNHARDT JR	50
BRAD KESELOWSKI	75
DAVID REUTIMANN	40
CASEY MEARS	200
DAVID RAGAN	100
AJ ALLMENDINGER	100
MARCOS AMBROSE	200
SAM HORNISH JR	100
ELLIOTT SADLER	500
REGAN SMITH	500
PAUL MENARD	500
SCOTT SPEED	500
DAVID GILLILAND	2000
TRAVIS KVAPIL	2000
FIELD	300