Micah Roberts’ NASCAR Sprint Cup driver ratings

If asked how many wins a driver had on the season after 25 races by giving such clues as 1) having led 813 laps with 10 top-five finishes, 2) sitting second in points and 3) having 82 career wins, the easy answer would be three, or maybe even four wins. It would be a good guess based on the information given. But for Jeff Gordon, who boasts all those credentials, he still remains winless in 2010.

Gordon is in the midst of a 54-race winless streak, the longest of his career. His last win was at the spring Texas race last season, but by no means has that meant he hasn’t been competitive or close to snapping the streak. He was in prime position to win at Martinsville, Phoenix and Richmond earlier this year and got beat on two of those occasions in green-white-checker finishes, NASCAR’s equivalent to overtime.
 
At Las Vegas, Gordon led the most laps and was en route to victory until a gamble of taking only two tires in the final pit stop cost him, as Jimmie Johnson — with four new tires — passed Gordon with 16 laps remaining.
 
Despite the near misses this season, Gordon still has maintained his consistency throughout the year, compiling more top-fives than anyone except points leader Kevin Harvick. While he’ll be behind the likes of Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and Kurt and Kyle Busch once the Chase starts next week at New Hampshire due to them being seeded higher based on wins, the one thing his team shouldn't have to be concerned about is hitting that dry spell like each of those drivers have experienced.
 
The task at hand this week at Richmond is simple for Gordon: Just win, baby! As Gordon’s crew chief Steve Letarte explains, that is their goal this week and beyond. 
 
“Richmond is an interesting week. You kind of start the year off wanting to be in the Chase. That’s your No. 1 goal. And then as you get closer and closer and closer to making it, all of a sudden you start to realize you haven’t won a race and you need to run better. Fortunately for the No. 24 team, we made the Chase a few weeks ago and now we’re working on winning races, and Richmond is one that comes to mind that I feel we could have won in the spring.”
 
During that spring race, Gordon led 144 laps and was leading with five laps to go but couldn’t hold off Kyle Busch following a late restart that brought the field back to Gordon. It was the third time on the season that Gordon had been beaten in what was a drag race over the final laps.
 
“We had a great car that night," said Letarte, "and it just came down to a last restart and we weren’t quite good enough to beat the No. 18 car. So it was an exciting race for sure, but it didn’t end up quite how we had hoped."
 
This week Letarte and Gordon have brought their fourth-place chassis from the June New Hampshire race which immediately signifies, beyond all of his great stats this season, that Gordon is a driver who should contend for the win.
 
Richmond, New Hampshire and Phoenix all mirror each other, despite being different in configuration, because of the relatively flat banking. Many of the teams that do well at one will use that same chassis for the other two. This season, no one has been collectively better on all three than Gordon. In addition to his fourth-place run at New Hampshire, Gordon was runner-up at both Phoenix and Richmond races.
 
Oddly, Gordon hasn’t won at Richmond since the 2000 season and only has two of his 82 career wins at the track in 35 starts. However, he’s on a stretch of great runs at Richmond where he’s finished no worse than ninth in seven straight races. Look for Gordon’s trend of good finishes on these type of tracks to continue while also possibly snapping a trend of not winning on any type of track.
 
Gordon didn’t have his best practice Friday at Richmond, but the notes from all three similar tracks this season will weigh much heavier during the race than what they did during those two sessions.
 
The driver who looks to be knocking on the door seriously this week is Carl Edwards who had his best career run at Richmond in May with a fifth-place finish. Edwards was fourth-fastest during the first session and then came out with the fastest times while in qualifying trim, which led to him sitting on the pole. Edwards has finished in the top five in four of the last five races and no one is hotter coming in.
 
Kyle Busch has one of the most impressive Richmond resumes of anyone at any particular track. Two wins with nine top-five finishes in 11 starts is about as sweet as it gets for any driver. His practice sessions weren’t very good, but don’t discount him by any means. Just like Gordon, his team will have the proper notes for the start time of racing, which is under the lights and in a different climate from all practices run.
 
The Childress drivers will fare well, led by Clint Bowyer and Harvick. Bowyer still hasn’t clinched the final position in the Chase, but he only needs to finish 28th or better to seal the deal. Bowyer’s only two career wins have come at the similar tracks of New Hampshire and Richmond and, based on practice, he could add win No. 3 this week. Bowyer brought his fourth-place Bristol chassis and set the fastest speed in the first practice session.
 
Harvick is a former Richmond winner as well and has always done well the track. He finished third in the spring and is using the same car that raced at all three similar tracks this season. Look for his consistency to continue with his 12th top-five finish of the season.
 
Johnson got out of his slump last week with a third-place finish at Atlanta and will be looking to carry the momentum over to a track at which he won at three times. He was the fastest in 15 lap averages during the important first session and, as current reigning four-time Cup champion, Johnson and his team can be expected to be sound as ever starting this week and throughout the final races of the season.
 
Juan Pablo Montoya made a strong impression during practice, finishing within the top four of each practice session, including qualifying. He had a career best sixth-place finish at Richmond in the spring and, based on practice, he fare better than that Saturday night.
 
 
 Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
 Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
 
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Air Guard 400
Richmond International Raceway, Richmond, Va.
Saturday, Sept. 11, 2010 — 4:46 p.m. (PDT)
 
Rating   Driver                     Odds   Practice 1  Practice 2  Qualifying  Spring Results*
1. Jeff Gordon                       12/1        19th            16th           22nd                 2nd
Finished in top four on similar tracks of Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire this year. 
2. Carl Edwards                   15/1          4th              1st              1st                   5th
Terrific practices using same fifth-place chassis from spring; Roush team hard-charging.
3. Jimmie Johnson                6/1           1st             21st            11th                 10th
Three-time Richmond winner; using same car from May 1 race, broke slump last week.
4. Kyle Busch                         7/2          15th           36th            32nd                1st
Won two of last three at Richmond; nine top-five finishes in 11 career starts.
5. Kevin Harvick                   12/1         10th             8th             20th                 3rd 
2006 winner; using same chassis that had top-five finishes at New Hampshire and Richmond.   
6. Clint Bowyer                     25/1          1st             12th              4th                 12th
Using fourth-place Bristol car; only two career wins have come on the similar tracks of New Hampshire and Richmond.
7. Ryan Newman                 30/1          2nd            14th            23rd                  8th
2003 winner with an average finish of 11.4 in 17 starts; won on similar Phoenix track in April.
8. Tony Stewart                    12/1          25th            6th             15th                 23rd
Three-time winner at Richmond with four runner-up finishes; using same car from May race.
9. Denny Hamlin                   5/1           21st           22nd           14th                 11th
Home town driver won this race last year; has career average finish of 8.8 in nine Richmond starts.
10. Juan Pablo Montoya     25/1          3rd              4th             2nd                   6th
One of the most outstanding drivers during Friday’s practice; using Martinsville chassis this week.
                   
* Race results from May 1 Richmond race
Note: There were only two scheduled practices Friday followed by qualifying. The first practice in race trim was the more important of the two.             
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for multiple publications covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@Gmail.com.
 
 
DRIVER QUOTES
 
JIMMIE JOHNSON ON WHAT HE THINKS HIS CHANCES ARE AT RICHMOND: "I'm hoping we will be a little better this time around. We didn’t have the greatest run there in the spring even though we finished 10th. The first couple of pit stops are always real important so you can get the car adjusted right. Track position is so important — it’s not like you can come in and work on it if it’s not where you want it. We’ve won there before but it just seems like we are up and down there. We just need to stay on top of it and try to get things going the right way as we start the Chase. It was a big relief to lock ourselves in (to the Chase) at Atlanta. It takes a little bit of the pressure off this weekend but that doesn’t mean that we aren’t looking for the win.”
 
DENNY HAMLIN ON RACING AT HIS HOME TRACK OF RICHMOND: "I love coming back here, I love the racing and the racetrack and seeing friends and family. I don’t think that will ever wear off. Winning here was something I’ll never forget but I enjoy just being at that track, it means a lot to see so many people wearing your number on their shirt and hats — that support from the fans in Richmond and all around Virginia is something I never take for granted.”
 
JEFF BURTON ON WHY RICHMOND IS ONE OF HIS FAVORITE TRACKS: “I just think for the teams, for the fans and for everybody that it takes to make this sport work, it’s the best all-around track. Richmond has good racing action. It’s big enough where it’s not wreck after wreck, but small enough where it’s close side-by-side action since you have multiple grooves. To me, it’s a really hard race track to beat, competition-wise. I take a lot of pride in running well at Richmond. Being from Virginia, Richmond is where I went as a kid to watch Cup Series racing and it’s a special place for me to come back to.”
 
HARVICK ON POSSIBLY MOVING ASIDE DURING THE RACE TO LET BOWYER PASS IF NEEDED IN ORDER TO MAKE THE CHASE: “Absolutely, I think you have to. It’s important for our company, it’s important for all of our sponsors to see that. Whatever we have to do, we’ll do.”
 
DALE EARNHARDT JR. ON RACING AT RICHMOND: “Richmond fits my driving style. I grew up racing at Myrtle Beach (S.C.), and it’s got the same characteristics of that track. It’s got multiple grooves and multiple ways of racing around there. The car changes quite a bit over the night, and you’ve got to be able to move around and find different grooves. We’ve struggled there the past couple of times but we’ve been doing a lot of testing to get ready for this weekend.”
 
 
RICHMOND AIR GUARD 400 ODDS & ENDS
Compiled Mike Forde
NASCAR Media Services

History
·         Originally known as the Atlantic Rural Exposition Fairgrounds, Richmond International Raceway held its first race in 1946 as a half-mile dirt track.
·         The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was April 19, 1953.
·         The spring 1964 race was run on a Tuesday night under temporary lighting.
·         The track name changed to Virginia State Fairgrounds in 1967.
·         The track surface was changed from dirt to asphalt between races in 1968.
·         The track name changed to Richmond Fairgrounds Raceway in 1969.
·         The track was re-measured to .542-mile for 1970.
·         The track was rebuilt as a three-quarters-mile D-shaped oval following the Feb. 21, 1988 race.
·         The first race under permanent lights was Sept. 7, 1991.
·         The first season with both races as night races was 1999.
Notebook
·         There have been 108 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Richmond since the track opened in 1953.
·         The current 400-lap race length was established on the .542-mile measurement in March 1976.
·         Buck Baker won the pole in 1953.
·         Lee Petty won the first race in April 1953.
·         There have been 47 different pole winners, led by Bobby Allison and Richard Petty (eight).
·         Jeff Gordon (five) leads active drivers with five poles.
·         47 different drivers have posted victories at Richmond, led by Richard Petty (13).
·         Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson (three) lead active race winners.
·         Petty Enterprises has won 15 races at Richmond, more than any other team.
·         63 of 108 races have been won from the top five starting positions, including 22 from the pole.
·         The last driver to win from the pole was Kyle Busch, earlier this season.
·         13 of the past 15 races have been won from the top 10.
·         The furthest back in the field a race winner has started was 31st, by Clint Bowyer in the 2008 spring race.
·         Kyle Petty became the first third-generation NASCAR race winner when he won his first race at Richmond, on Feb. 23, 1986.Richard Petty posted his first Richmond victory in 1961 and Leewon the very first Richmond race in 1953.
·         Two active drivers have an average finish inside the top 10: Kyle Busch (5.5) and Denny Hamlin (8.8). Tony Stewart averages a finish just outside the top 10 (10.9).
·         Four of the last five races have had a margin of victory less than one second.
·         Four drivers have come from outside the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint cut-off to make the Chase at Richmond:
o    Jeremy Mayfield in 2004 made up a 55-point deficit
o    Ryan Newman in 2005 made up a one-point deficit
o    Kasey Kahne in 2006 made up a 30-point deficit
o    Brian Vickers in 2009 made up a 20-point deficit

NASCAR in Virginia
·         There have been 268 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Virginia.
·         159 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Virginia.
·         There have been 18 race winners from Virginia in NASCAR’s three national series:

Richmond International Raceway Data
Race # 26 of 36 (9-11-10)
Track Size: .75 miles
·     Banking/Corners: 14 degrees
·     Banking/Frontstretch: 8 degrees
·     Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
·     Frontstretch: 1,290 feet
·     Backstretch: 860 feet

Driver Rating at Richmond
Denny Hamlin                117.4
Kyle Busch                   114.1
Kevin Harvick                114.0
Jeff Gordon                  99.5
Tony Stewart                 98.2
Kurt Busch                    95.4
Mark Martin                   93.9
Ryan Newman               93.8
Clint Bowyer                  93.7
Dale Earnhardt Jr.         88.8
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at Richmond.

Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Mark Martin (126.808 mph, 21.292 secs.)
2009 race winner: Denny Hamlin (96.601 mph, 9-12-09)
Track qualifying record: Brian Vickers (129.983, 20.772 seconds, 5-14-04)
Track race record: Dale Jarrett (109.047 mph, 9-6-97)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 85-95 laps, based on fuel mileage
 
LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK NASCAR ODDS TO WIN
 
AIR GUARD 400
RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2010

JIMMIE JOHNSON 6
KYLE BUSCH 7-2
JEFF GORDON 12
DENNY HAMLIN 5
JEFF BURTON 15
KEVIN HARVICK 12
MATT KENSETH 30
CARL EDWARDS 15
GREG BIFFLE 20
KURT BUSCH 15
MARK MARTIN 30
TONY STEWART 12
CLINT BOWYER 25
JUAN MONTOYA 25
KASEY KAHNE 20
JOEY LOGANO 40
RYAN NEWMAN 30
MARTIN TRUEX JR 35
JAMIE McMURRAY 35
DALE EARNHARDT JR 35
BRAD KESELOWSKI 100
DAVID REUTIMANN 30
REED SORENSON 200
DAVID RAGAN 100
AJ ALLMENDINGER 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 200
SAM HORNISH JR 100
ELLIOTT SADLER 300
REGAN SMITH 500
PAUL MENARD 100
SCOTT SPEED 500
BOBBY LABONTE 3000
TRAVIS KVAPIL 3000
FIELD 100