Micah Roberts’ NASCAR Sprint Cup driver ratings — extra

Coming into Dover this week as the second race in NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship, the story lines all centered on last week's winner Clint Bowyer, and his team, being fined and having 150 points deducted for their car not making postrace specifications. Everyone had differing opinions on the matter, but most agreed that the penalty was harsh. The 150 points lost immediately dropped Bowyer from a contender to last in the Chase.

When the teams arrived at Dover on Friday, that was all everyone wanted to talk about. Bowyer and car owner Richard Childress pleaded their cases during the mandatory news conferences and announced that their appeal with NASCAR would be held Wednesday. Most of the drivers didn’t have anything to say and didn’t want to get involved, but one did, and he had a lot to say.
 
Denny Hamlin started talking on the matter. And he kept on talking. Just him alone, with dozens of reporters who just let him keep talking. They must have all been thinking, “Wow, this is some good stuff,” and it was.
 
By the time practice and qualifying was over, word had spread about Hamlin's comments. But nearly everyone was gone from the track, leaving the stage set for early Saturday morning when everyone would be back to respond. Childress bit his tongue when asked to respond, but Kevin Harvick responded an entirely different way by taking matters to the track.
 
Within the first five minutes of practice Harvick played the RCR team enforcer role — like a hockey goon defending his star player — and bumped the right rear of Hamlin's car a couple of times, and soon after, the right front fender as he sped away.
 
Both cars had minor damage and immediately came into the garage area for repairs where the fireworks continued. Hamlin didn’t have to go far to voice his displeasure, either, because his stall was right next to Harvick’s. Both crews did some yelling at each other and, when Hamlin got into the fray, Harvick quickly jumped out of his car and went straight for Hamlin with some choice words of his own.
 
What was turning out to be just another race in the Chase where we all kind of felt bad for Bowyer’s situation has now turned into a classic grudge match between two of the favorites to win the Chase. Harvick has led the season in points for almost the entire year, while Hamlin currently leads after the reseeding of the Chase format.
 
It couldn’t have gotten any better for NASCAR, its fans, sponsors and, most of all, TV. This is true reality TV with no scripts or built-in story lines. Even though NASCAR won’t publicly say so, this kind of drama is what they were hoping for when announcing before the season started that the series would loosen up on conduct policies, allowing drivers to show more personality.
 
We’ve seen NASCAR be true to its word this season in regard to the looser standards, but Brad Keselowski getting taken out by Carl Edwards or Kyle Busch doesn’t get anyone’s juices flowing. It’s exciting, but it’s definitely not of the Dale Earnhardt-Rusty Wallace magnitude. Harvick and Hamlin feuding — two of the top drivers in NASCAR — is about as interesting as anything that has happened in NASCAR this season.
 
From Harvick’s vantage point, this isn't about something that happened on the track, it’s worse. Insinuating that the entire RCR team has been shady all season, while Harvick has been leading the points all year, is an indirect slap at Harvick and his team. The manner in which Harvick handled his response may have been a bit over the top, but he definitely got his message across.
 
As for this week's race, it’ll be interesting to see how it unfolds on the track Sunday. Both Harvick and Hamlin had a rough early practice session as they scrambled to repair their cars, but rebounded during happy hour with some of the best speeds. Hamlin’s repaired car managed to have the eighth-best lap while Harvick had the fastest average speeds. Neither driver has had spectacular past runs at Dover, but each look to have top-10 cars.
 
Because of their history at Dover, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch stand out pretty broad among the other drivers. Johnson is a five-time winner on the track while Busch has won twice. The two drivers have combined to win four of the last five races there. Busch will try to accomplish the same feat Johnson did last year, and in 2002, when he swept the season. There have been nine drivers in track history who have swept the Dover season.
 
Busch’s best run of the day came when he finished second-fastest in the early session while all the drama was happening with his teammate and Harvick. Busch, incidentally, is much closer to Harvick on a personal level than Hamlin.
 
The driver to keep a close eye on this week who should give Busch and Johnson a tough battle for the win is Matt Kenseth, who was fourth-fastest during happy hour. Not only does Kenseth have a fast car this week, but he’s got history going for him as well with a streak of five straight top-four finishes at Dover.
 
The other Roush drivers should do almost as well because this has typically been a very good track for them. Johnson’s sweep last year ended a streak of five straight years that a Roush driver had won at Dover. Carl Edwards owns the track record of 8.7 for best average finish with a 2007 win while Greg Biffle is a two-time winner. Of the two, Biffle looked better in practice, but Edwards loves racing on concrete and should excel once again.
 
When going over Dover notes from this week, the May race and seasons past, I always like to include a small sampling of what happened at the two Bristol races. Even though Bristol is a half-mile shorter than Dover, Bristol’s new progressive banking and the concrete surface make the two tracks similar.
 
A driver sitting outside the Chase could be in store for a good run Sunday following his efforts in practice. Martin Truex Jr. had the third-fastest average speeds during happy hour on what is considered his home track. The Mayetta, N.J., native won the only race of his career at Dover in 2007.      
 
 
Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
 
 
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
AAA 400
Dover International Speedway, Dover, Del.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 2010 — 10:16 a.m. (PDT)
Rating    Driver               Odds     Practice 1    Qualifying    Practice 2    Practice 3
1. Kyle Busch                    5/1            7th               11th               2nd               19th   
Two-time winner, including this spring; two of his three 2010 wins have come on concrete.                 
2. Jimmie Johnson           9/4           19th               1st                 5th                 7th
Swept 2009 season; has five Dover wins in 17 starts. Using 22nd-place Indy Chassis this week.            
3. Matt Kenseth                25/1           6th               14th              13th                4th            
2006 winner with a 12.7 average finish in 23 starts. Five straight top-four Dover finishes; third in spring.
4. Kurt Busch                    12/1         15th                8th                3rd                13th
Not one of his better tracks; average finish of 19.7 in 20 starts. Finished fifth in both 2009 races.
5. Martin Truex Jr.            30/1         14th                3rd               15th                5th
Site of his only career win in 2007; had the third-fastest average speeds during final practice.
6. Greg Biffle                     12/1           5th                6th                 6th               12th
Two-time winner with a 10.5 average finish in 16 starts; finished sixth in the spring. Using Texas chassis this week.
7. Carl Edwards                12/1          2nd              10th               21st              16th
2007 fall winner with track-best 7.9 average finish in 12 starts; finished eighth in the spring race.
8. Jeff Burton                     30/1          24th              27th               9th                 3rd
2006 fall winner with a 15.9 average finish in 33 starts; runner-up in the spring. Using Atlanta car that finished fourth.
9. Denny Hamlin                8/1          11th                4th               29th                8th
Tied best career finish of fourth in the spring. Using fifth-place Pocono chassis this week. 
10. Kevin Harvick             30/1         32nd             33rd              26th                15th      
Only three career top-fives in 19 starts, but had the fastest average speeds during happy hour.
Note: Though a half-mile smaller, Bristol can be used as a reference for Dover because of the similar banking and concrete surface.             
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for multiple publications covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.
 
DENNY HAMLIN'S WEEKEND OF QUOTES
 
DENNY HAMLIN ON FRIDAY, REGARDING CLINT BOWYER AND RCR BEING FINED AND STRIPPED OF POINTS: "They should be happy they're even in the Chase at this point. They were warned and they were warned before Richmond. Everyone in the garage knows that. They're the ones who wanted to press the issue and get all they could to make sure they got into the Chase. They got in it, and then they got busted when they kept going with it."

"I think they're just trying to salvage their season (with the excuse), basically, it was a 'crock' to think that wouldn't provide Bowyer a performance advantage. I understand that whole appeal process they're going to go through. There has to be a point where it's black and white; it's no longer gray. If they let them get away with this 60-thousandths of an inch, then where do you stop? There has to be a point where you say, 'This is the tolerance, if you go past it, you're in trouble.' If they let him go, they're going to open up the whole field to let them do what they want."

"Some teams choose to get closer to that line than others. There are things that happen out on the racetrack, there are variables that happen during the race that could make you be wrong. But that's your risk. If you're going to go out on the racetrack where it's like, 'One bump and my car is illegal,' that's a risk that ain't worth taking. That's why we don't do it with our organization."
 
DENNY HAMLIN REGARDING THE BUMPS HARVICK GAVE HIM DURING PRACTICE: "You know, he got into me on pit road before we even (went onto) the track, so I knew we were going to have to deal with some issues. It's unnecessary that the team guys have got to get involved in it, but we're just going to keep focused on winning a championship."
 
DENNY HAMLIN FOLLOWING SATURDAY'S PRACTICES AND STANDING BY HIS FRIDAY COMMENTS: "It's something I've always done — speak my mind — and it's not always in my best interest to do that," he said. "But if someone asks me a question, I'm always going to give my 100 percent honest answer, and that's the best I can do. I think I had the right to give my opinion. When you look at the two teams and you look at the history of wrongdoing and penalties, our integrity speaks for itself. Everyone at our team knows we're trying to do things the right way."
 
 
DOVER AAA 400 ODDS & ENDS
Compiled by Mike Forde
NASCAR Media Services
History
·         The official opening of the track, then called Dover Downs International Speedway, was in 1969.
·         The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held July 6, 1969.
·         The first two races at Dover were 300 miles. The race length was changed to 500 miles in 1971.
·         The track surface was changed to concrete in 1995.
·         The race length was changed to 400 miles beginning with the second race in 1997.
·         The track name was changed to Dover International Speedway in 2002.
Notebook
·         There have been 81 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Dover International Speedway since the track opened in 1969.
·         There was one race in 1969 and 1970. There have been two a year since 1971.
·         Richard Petty won the track’s first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
·         There have been 35 different pole winners, led by David Pearson (six).
·         David Pearson won the first pole in July 1969.
·         Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers, each with four poles.
·         32 different drivers have posted victories led by Bobby Allison and Richard Petty, each with seven.
·         Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers, with five victories. He swept last season, scoring a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 in the spring event.
·         Hendrick Motorsports has a series-high 12 wins.
·         49 races at Dover have been won from a top-five starting position; 17 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
·         12 drivers have won from the pole. The last to do so was Jimmie Johnson, in last season’s September race.
·         The furthest back in the field a race winner started was 37th, by Kyle Petty in 1995.
·         Several active drivers had their first start at Dover, including three past champions: Kurt Busch (finished 18th in 2000), Matt Kenseth (sixth in 1998) and Bobby Labonte (34th in 1991).
·         In addition, Matt Kenseth (2002) and Michael Waltrip (1991) earned their first pole at Dover. Martin Truex Jr. won his first race there (2007).
 
NASCAR in Delaware
·            There have been 81 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Delaware, all at Dover International Speedway.
·            Eight drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Delaware, though none have posted victories.
 
Dover International Speedway Data
Race #: 28 of 36 (9-26-10)
Track Size: 1 mile
·     Banking/Corners: 24 degrees
·     Banking/Straights: 9 degrees
·     Frontstretch: 1,076 feet
·     Backstretch: 1,076 feet

Driver Rating at Dover
Jimmie Johnson            113.8
Greg Biffle                    112.2
Matt Kenseth                111.8
Carl Edwards                102.2
Kyle Busch                   101.6
Mark Martin                  100.0
Ryan Newman               96.8
Kurt Busch                    95.4
Jeff Gordon                    90.0
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at Dover.
 
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Jimmie Johnson (157.356 mph, 22.878 seconds)
2009 race winner: Jimmie Johnson (118.704 mph, 9-27-09)
Track qualifying record: Jeremy Mayfield (161.522 mph, 22.288 seconds,
6-4-04)
Track race record: Mark Martin (132.719 mph, 9-21-97)
 
Estimated Pit Window: Every 72-78 laps, based on fuel mileage.

 
LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK NASCAR ODDS TO WIN
 
AAA 400 - ODDS ADJUSTED AFTER FRIDAY'S QUALIFYING 
DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2010

JIMMIE JOHNSON 9-4
KYLE BUSCH 5
JEFF GORDON 15
DENNY HAMLIN 8
JEFF BURTON 30
KEVIN HARVICK 30
MATT KENSETH 25
CARL EDWARDS 12
GREG BIFFLE 12
KURT BUSCH 12
MARK MARTIN 25
TONY STEWART 18
CLINT BOWYER 30
JUAN MONTOYA 25
KASEY KAHNE 35
JOEY LOGANO 40
RYAN NEWMAN 40
MARTIN TRUEX JR 18
JAMIE McMURRAY 25
DALE EARNHARDT JR 100
BRAD KESELOWSKI 200
DAVID REUTIMANN 35
REED SORENSON 100
DAVID RAGAN 200
AJ ALLMENDINGER 20
MARCOS AMBROSE 300
SAM HORNISH JR 200
ELLIOTT SADLER 500
REGAN SMITH 1000
PAUL MENARD 100
SCOTT SPEED 500
BOBBY LABONTE 5000
TRAVIS KVAPIL 5000
FIELD 300