Patriots-Colts figures to post big wagering interest

With the finish line of the NFL regular season still distant, two games today in the AFC could have a dramatic impact on which team makes the trip to Miami for the Super Bowl in February.

The New England Patriots visit the Indianapolis Colts. A loss, while not a devastating blow, could send someone packing for a road trip in the playoffs.

When Tom Brady and Peyton Manning butt heads, the games are compelling and generally come down to the fourth quarter. Brady leads the series 7-3, but the tables have started to turn in Manning's favor.

The Patriots won the first six games, beginning in 2001 and culminating with a win in the playoffs in 2005. The Colts responded by rattling off a three-game winning streak, including a 38-34 victory in the AFC Championship Game in 2007.

For the oddsmakers, this is an easy number to make. Throw it out to the betting market and see where it goes. The Colts opened as 3-point favorites, and it has not budged off that key number in most instances. There has been some New England money this week at the M Resort and Station Casinos, where Indy is a 21/2-point favorite.

MGM Mirage sports book director Jay Rood reported a definite betting trend that's been in play throughout the week.

"There's no doubt that the pulse of the general public and the ticket count has been supporting the Patriots," Rood said. "Knowing the Colts secondary is so banged up, if sharp money doesn't surface, I can see this game going off below the key number.

"The (bettors) have been taking the 3 off the board and the parlay cards. So despite the fact he personally drives me crazy with his antics at the line of scrimmage, I'm going to be a big Peyton Manning fan (tonight)."

Art Manteris, Stations Casinos vice president of race and sports book operations, expects the game to generate huge numbers. Manteris said the handle might surpass the Green Bay-Minnesota game, in which Brett Favre beat the Packers on a Monday night.

"Initially, I thought Indy minus-3 was the number, but we opened 21/2, and it's proven to be a good move," Manteris said. "We've had solid two-way action all week long."

The other AFC contest that could affect the playoff picture is in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers are 7-point favorites over the surging Cincinnati Bengals.

If the Bengals record the upset win, they will have swept Pittsburgh and Baltimore and can put a stranglehold on the AFC North. The Bengals would take a two-game lead in the division by virtue of tiebreakers.

Driving home the point of how the public is infatuated with the Steelers is the fact that in seven of their eight games, the line has moved in their favor. But Pittsburgh is 3-5 against the spread. The only time this season that money surfaced against the Steelers was on their visit to Cincinnati.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Dan O'Brien marvels at the Steelers' popularity.

"Especially when the Steelers are playing at home, we expect the money to go their way," O'Brien said. "It's remarkable, though, that even as the defending Super Bowl champions, the money has flowed so significantly their way. It has been the norm that the bettors go against the reigning champ, but not in this case."

LVSC odds director Tony Sinisi is wary of the Bengals and still a big believer in Pittsburgh's approach.

"The Steelers are the quiet champion that goes about their business," Sinisi said. "So far, so good for the Bengals, but there is an underlying immaturity, a loud mouth-showboat mentality -- i.e. Chad Ochocinco -- that can rear its ugly head at any time."

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Listen to the LVSC oddsmakers on "Sportsbook Radio," weekdays at 3 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM) and Sirius 98.