Prince, UCLA live home ‘dogs
After a miserable performance in a season-opening loss at Boise State, Oregon seemingly has turned the corner under first-year coach Chip Kelly.
At the top of the Ducks' resume is a 42-3 thrashing of California two weeks ago at Autzen Stadium.
The Ducks travel to Los Angeles today to face a UCLA team that lacks Oregon's offensive firepower but has made moderate gains under second-year coach Rick Neuheisel.
On the surface, the Ducks might appear to have momentum on their side, but a number of factors favor the Bruins in this Pacific-10 Conference showdown.
First of all, freshman quarterback Kevin Prince is expected to return after missing several weeks with a fractured jaw. Behind veteran backup Kevin Craft, a limited Bruins offense had become even more hamstrung.
From a technical standpoint, UCLA is 14-5 against the spread (ATS) the past 10 years as a home underdog and 12-2 ATS versus ranked opponents during the same span. Additionally, the Bruins are 20-5 ATS off a straight-up loss since 2004.
On top of that, the injury bug recently has hit Oregon hard, with cornerback Willie Glasper the latest to be put on the shelf. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, meanwhile, is battling a bad right knee but could be under center for the Ducks.
In any event, take UCLA as a 31/2-point home underdog.
Four more plays for today (home team in CAPS):
• WASHINGTON (+31/2) over Arizona -- The Huskies return home after a hard-luck overtime loss at Notre Dame. With one of the nation's more underappreciated quarterbacks in Jake Locker, Washington is energized under new coach Steve Sarkisian and should get the win. Arizona still is searching for an offensive identity.
• TEXAS A&M (+51/2) over Oklahoma State -- After opening the season with national championship aspirations -- at least in their minds -- the Cowboys have lost at home to Houston and now will be without suspended All-America wide receiver Dez Bryant.
Kyle Field is a tough environment for opposing teams, and the Aggies appear to pack enough offensive firepower to keep this Big 12 game close.
• OKLAHOMA (-28) over Baylor -- Any hopes of the Sooners sneaking in the back door and gaining a spot in the Bowl Championship Series title game were all but extinguished last week at Miami.
But coach Bob Stoops' teams historically play well off a loss (12-6 ATS in their past 18 in the role), and Baylor's offense lost its heart and soul when quarterback Robert Griffin went down for the season two weeks ago with a knee injury. After it was announced Oklahoma star QB Sam Bradford is returning from a right shoulder injury, this line moved up three points.
• LOUISIANA STATE (+71/2) over Florida -- The No. 4 Tigers are the most overrated team in college football to date.
And while it hasn't always been pretty, LSU has done what it takes to win and is getting more than a touchdown in this mammoth matchup against the top-ranked Gators.
Florida quarterback Tim Tebow probably is a 50/50 proposition to play, so take the points in any scenario.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 8-16-1
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone of Vegassportsauthority.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal this season.
