Risk makes few outfielders worthy of first round

A couple of outfielders are worth considering as first-round picks in your fantasy baseball draft. After them, you'll be gambling.

Because so many outfielders are available, you might think there isn't a shortage of talent. But after analyzing the risk versus reward for each, plenty of concerns surface, beginning with the consensus No. 3-rated outfielder.

After getting past the Milwaukee Brewers' Ryan Braun and the Tampa Bay Rays' Carl Crawford in the first two rounds, a few high-risk candidates could warrant selections in the second and third rounds. But opting for one of the top three catchers or a valued middle infielder looks like the more conservative and logical approach.

The Arizona Diamondbacks' Justin Upton has many fantasy owners drooling, thinking he'll materialize into a superstar, after hitting .300 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases last season. It is possible he could take the next step, but is the risk worth a pick in the first two rounds, or even the third?

Most fantasy baseball publications have Upton listed as the second- or third-best outfielder in the draft, but until he consistently posts elite numbers, he's a risky pick.

Not so risky a pick is the Boston Red Sox's Jacoby Ellsbury. It's not hard to project what Ellsbury will do this season because he has thrived for two straight seasons and is getting better.

We know he jump-starts one of the American League's best offenses, he's going to be near the league lead in stolen bases, and he has proven he can sustain consistency hitting against the pitchers in his division. The big question with Ellsbury is whether his power numbers will increase -- and there's a good chance they will.

Maybe we're wary of Upton simply because of what happened to his brother, B.J. Upton, in the 2008 season.

After his 2007 season, when he hit .300 with 24 home runs and 82 RBIs, B.J. Upton was being touted as someone worthy of an early-round draft choice. But his numbers fell off precipitously the next two seasons.

Another mystery on draft day will be the Los Angeles Dodgers' outfield. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier busted out with career years for the second straight season, and Manny Ramirez slumped to numbers fantasy owners had never seen from him.

Kemp has the potential to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases. Ethier has established himself as the Dodgers' game breaker who struggles early in the season before getting hot.

Ramirez finished last season with his worst numbers since his rookie year of 1994. In fairness to him, he was suspended for 50 games last season.

It's possible Ramirez could return to form and is a top-15 outfielder, but a safer pick would be someone such as the Houston Astros' Carlos Lee. You can pretty much count on a 26-homer, 100-RBI season from him.

You're always looking for late-round bargains, so keep an eye on the Oakland Athletics' Rajai Davis, the San Diego Padres' Kyle Blanks and the Chicago White Sox's Juan Pierre.

Davis, ranked 48th among outfielders, could hit for a high average, steal bases and play every day. Blanks, 74th among outfielders, has tremendous power.

Pierre, 40th among outfielders, will be starting every day and hitting leadoff. When he has gotten 600 at-bats in a season, he has been good for around 190 hits and 45 stolen bases.

Micah Roberts, a Las Vegas-based writer, can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.