Sippl says to take Jags, lay 10

A two-faced running attack with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew was supposed to carry the Jacksonville Jaguars a long way this season. That still might happen, but they both came up lame in the first game.

Neither Taylor nor Jones-Drew suffered an injury in a season-opening loss to the Tennessee Titans. They just never got the ball rolling.

The Gold Sheet handicapper Chuck Sippl expects that to change today, when the Jaguars host the Atlanta Falcons.

Sippl is supporting Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite mainly because it is at home off an embarrassing loss.

"I don't love the point spread. In the NFL, nobody likes to normally lay more than three points, and certainly no more than 61/2," Sippl said. "But it happens every year where one or two teams come up short on opening day and just don't have it for some reason. Now, you're guaranteed they will be ready."

The Falcons came up way short in their opener, falling to Minnesota 24-3 as Joey Harrington was sacked six times and had two interceptions returned for touchdowns.

With a new coach in Bobby Petrino, and a new quarterback operating a new offense, Atlanta will develop slowly, Sippl said.

The Jaguars' defense was pounded for 282 yards rushing in the 13-10 defeat to the Titans. The offense was just as flat, with Jones-Drew and Taylor combining for only 48 yards on the ground.

Jacksonville is 7-3 against the spread in its past 10 home games. Another trend points to a low-scoring game. The Falcons have gone under the total in 14 of their past 17 on the road.

Sippl cautioned bettors not to draw too many conclusions from the first week's results.

"It's just really tough the first two weeks. My philosophy is, take it easy and don't unload your whole bankroll," he said. "I never get surprised because I'm expecting unusual things in the first two weeks."

Sippl (goldsheet.com) analyzes the rest of today's Week 2 schedule:

• Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-91/2): The Bills are hurting in too many areas. They lost two starters in the secondary last week and they're short on defensive end and linebacker depth. It might take a month for their reshuffled offensive line to get going. Buffalo is also coming off a devastating 15-14 loss to Denver. Take Pittsburgh and coach Mike Tomlin in his home debut.

• Cincinnati (-7) at Cleveland: The Bengals have won and covered seven straight in September. Quarterback Carson Palmer is cooking and healthier than he was at this time last year. The Browns' QB, Derek Anderson, still has a lot to prove, and in my mind, they made a mistake by getting Jamal Lewis and putting him in as their premier running back. Lay the points with Cincinnati, which outscored Cleveland 64-17 last year. The Bengals have a 15-4-1 spread mark in their last 20 games on the road.

• Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee: We'll take the Titans and the points. They have been coming along well with Vince Young at quarterback, even though he's still erratic. Tennessee gave the Colts all they could handle last year, with Indianapolis winning by one and the Titans winning by three. Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher really loves his offensive line, and that line showed why last week by chopping up Jacksonville's defensive front. Young's running gives the Titans an extra dimension.

• Houston at Carolina (-61/2): All the personnel moves the Texans made are coming through. Matt Schaub played well at quarterback and didn't self-destruct, running back Ahman Green is a plus and the young defensive linemen are playing well. Carolina has not been a great home favorite, 5-12 laying seven or fewer points since 2004. We think Houston has got a new attitude and we'll take the underdog.

• San Francisco at St. Louis (-3): The Rams lost left tackle Orlando Pace for the season, and (former Eldorado High School) running back Steven Jackson was not sharp last week, when he fumbled twice and was held to 58 yards on 18 carries. With the shuffling on St. Louis' offensive line, it might be harder for Jackson all year. The 49ers' additions on defense have steadied things, and running back Frank Gore looks good. It's a very even game and we'll take San Francisco and the points.

• Green Bay at N.Y. Giants (-2): Even if Giants quarterback Eli Manning doesn't start, he might play. Jared Lorenzen was getting all the snaps with the first team in practice, but we don't consider Manning out. The Packers did not score a touchdown on offense last week in a fortuitous win over the Eagles. When things don't go well for Green Bay, Brett Favre gets a little antsy. Take the Giants off a loss.

• New Orleans (-31/2) at Tampa Bay: The 31/2 points are enough to suck us in with the Buccaneers. This is a tough spot with the Saints coming off a loss in which they didn't play well. But the New Orleans defense is not at a playoff level yet. It's Tampa Bay's home opener and it looks like banged-up running back Cadillac Williams will play.

• Minnesota at Detroit (-3): It's unbelievable, but the Vikings have won the last 10 in the series. Minnesota's Tarvaris Jackson is making just the second road start of his career, and there is such a tremendous difference in quarterback experience that we'll take veteran Jon Kitna and the Lions.

• Dallas (-4) at Miami: The Cowboys got a lot of breaks in their victory over the Giants. The Dolphins play tougher defense at home, and quarterback Trent Green will improve in his second game. Miami is not an incompetent team, so the 31/2 points will get us interested in the underdog.

• Seattle (-3) at Arizona: The Seahawks were plagued by injuries and went 0-4 as road favorites last year. Running back Shaun Alexander has something wrong with his left hand and was wearing a cast in practice this week. The Cardinals have got a chance to win straight up.

• N.Y. Jets at Baltimore (-10): There is a big X-factor here because we don't know for sure who the quarterbacks will be. It could be the backups for each team, Kyle Boller for the Ravens and Kellen Clemens for the Jets. We'll take Baltimore and its defense. The Ravens have been good home favorites, 17-8-1 in their last 26 under coach Brian Billick.

• Oakland at Denver (-10): The Raiders also have an iffy quarterback situation. In coach Lane Kiffin's offense, Josh McCown is completing quick throws; he hit 30 of 40 last week. I think McCown will play and Daunte Culpepper will be the backup. These teams played two close games last year, with the Broncos winning by 10 and four, so we'll take Oakland getting the 10 points. The Raiders have a better attitude. It doesn't look like they will give up like they did in some games last year.

• Kansas City at Chicago (-12): It's Bears all the way. The Chiefs are really going to struggle for victories. Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman is going to self-destruct more on the road than at home. With defensive tackle Tommie Harris back to 100 percent, look for an outstanding performance from the Bears' defense. A good defense tends not to let teams in the back door.

• San Diego at New England (-31/2): We're taking the Chargers, who want revenge for their fourth-quarter collapse in the playoffs. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson will have an easier time against the New England defense than he did against the Bears last week. San Diego is 12-1-2 in its last 15 as an underdog.

COMPILED BY REVIEW-JOURNAL SPORTS WRITER MATT YOUMANS