Goodman’s unstrategy continues to pay off

Oscar Goodman has ‘em right where he wants ‘em: watching Oscar Goodman. The popular Las Vegas mayor isn’t yet an announced candidate for governor, but he’s already emerging as a strong contender for the job currently held by hapless Jim Gibbons.

• R-J POLL: Goodman takes slight lead

While Rory Reid is paying for his campaign machine, and Brian Sandoval is taking a big risk by leaving a respected job for life as a U.S. District Judge, Goodman is being careful to not let out his plans for 2010. That costs nothing, drives some of his political critics to distraction, and is absolutely the right thing to do from a strategic standpoint.

You don’t need a poll to catch the voters’ drift in Nevada. You only have to listen to them. Right now, Reid is seen as too liberal and isn’t likely to get Independent voters. He has to make the case for need. That is, he has to show voters why they need him in Carson City. Without that, he’ll be perceived as a likable, thoughtful coach’s son: the kid who gets to play because of who he knows, not what he knows.

Conservatives are sniffing at Sandoval’s squishy answers to basic philosophy questions. If the hard-core right-wingers who are criticizing moderate Republicans don’t acknowledge that, they’ll once again expose themselves as game-playing hypocrites. Sandoval is far more middle-of-the road than the state’s new Republican Party would seem to want.

Goodman is Mr. Shoot-From-the-Lip, but he appeals to Independents, older Democrats, some Libertarians, and people tired of seeing the name Reid on political placards. How his new City Hall obsession fits into this remains unclear, but it sure will give critics a big target to shoot at.

Review-Journal pollster Mason-Dixon Polling & Research in a statewide survey published in Sunday’s newspaper shows Goodman with 35 percent of the likely vote, 32 percent for Sandoval, and 24 percent for Reid. That is, of course, bad news for Reid. Just 12 percent is undecided, but that doesn’t take into account the grind of the campaign season. It only guarantees that it will get filthy as the opponents try to drive voters.

Mason-Dixon’s health care question shows precisely what I tried to illustrate in last Sunday’s column: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid must return to Nevada to close the deal with this state’s voters. If health care passes in Washington but fails to impress Nevadans, the senior Reid is sunk. With 53 percent opposing the plan and 39 percent in favor, it means that every day Reid works in Washington on health care reform is a day he hurts himself in Nevada. (Note to the Majority Leader: Remember “Give ‘em health, Harry,” in plain English.)

The good news for almost all the declared and potential candidates is that this poll was taken slightly less than a year from Election Day. There’s plenty of time to libel your opponents and dig up juicy details of adulterous affairs, ethically shabby land deals, family favoritism, and drunken public behavior.

I say “almost all” candidates because, of course, no one is opining that Gov. Jim Gibbons has the slightest chance to win re-election.

But wouldn’t it be interesting if, after calling a special session of the Legislation to once again emerge as a strong budget-cutter, the Luv Guv blips on the radar screen some time in January?