Handicapper: Nevada best hope for Dem pickup in 2012 Senate

Fourteen months away from Election Day 2012, political analyst Larry Sabato has issued his latest take on the electoral landscape for U.S. Senate.

Absent some big screwups,  "Republicans have plenty of chances to gain the four seats they need to guarantee them control of the Senate next year," he writes with colleague Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Except for "bad candidates decisions" that crippled GOP chances in a handful of races in 2010,  Republicans would be poised even prettier for a takeover,  the analysts say. Tea Party-backed candidates in Nevada (Sharron Angle), Colorado (Ken Buck) and Delaware (Christine O'Donnell) turned within-grasp victories into defeats in those states.

The analysis is here.

Of the 23 seats that Democrats are defending, 17 are at least potentially competitive, Sabato says.   Republicans are defending only 10 seats, and two of them -- Nevada and Massachusetts -- look to shape into close races.

Sabato rates Nevada as "leaning Republican" in favor of Sen. Dean Heller who is looking to keep the seat after being appointed to fill it in May.

But Heller "faces a tough challenge" from Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley.

With Democrat Byron Georgiou dropping out this summer, "Berkley should have a clear road to the nomination and the full support of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s political machine, which is formidable," Sabato writes.

"Heller, thanks to his incumbency, is a slight favorite in this race, but Nevada — not Massachusetts — may be the best opportunity for Democrats to win a Republican-held seat next year."

Meanwhile, David Catanese of Politico rates the Nevada Senate race the third most competitive, behind Virginia and Montana.

Georgiou's exit "removes a potential nagging distraction for Rep. Shelley Berkley, who spent the recess hammering a tightly honed message of job creation and began to lay out an economic contrast with Sen. Dean Heller,"  Catanese writes.  "It's clear Berkley still has work to do making inroads in the northern, more rural part of the state, but early polling also indicates that Heller's not getting a measurable bump from his promotion to the upper chamber."