Mayoral poll: Is race over before the first ballot is cast?

It’s all over but the shouting. If you read today’s Review-Journal story on our latest poll in the Las Vegas Mayor’s race, that’s the only conclusion you can reach. Carolyn Goodman, with 36.5 percent of like voters’ support, has an enormous lead over her nearest competition (Larry Brown with 17.5 percent and Chris Giunchigliani with 11.7 percent, according to the Magellan Research survey.)

I don’t doubt Marvin Longabaugh’s methodology. He’s a pro and has a keen insight into Nevada voter trends. But it’s also true that “likely voters” haven’t had much to do in the past two mayor’s races, in which Oscar Goodman has toyed with the challengers to his throne.   That’s a big margin in this nonpartisan race, but I have to wonder how much party politics and union activity will matter down the stretch. Brown and Giunchigliani, for instance, have spent years building loyalties and constituencies within the Democratic Party. Will those contacts pay off?

And “V for Victor” Chaltiel and long-shot George Harris, who don’t blip on the R-J’s polling radar, have a network of Republican allies. Will a few email blasts bring their GOP friends off the couch?  

You have to wonder whether candidate Steve Ross, another nonstarter according to the poll, will continue his assault on Brown. Given the numbers, a continued pummeling will look like an effort to boost the chances of the labor-friendly Giunchigliani. (Giunchigliani’s husband Gary Gray is Ross’ former campaign manager.) That would enable Chris G. to stick to the high road while Ross was busy mugging Brown.

Such a strategy might help Giunchigliani reach the runoff, but the numbers don’t appear to show anyone mounting a serious challenge to Goodman.

It's hard to imagine that it might be just that easy for Goodman to take over her husband's office.