Ward 4 business owners hear message of hope for economic recovery

There was a glimmer, just a glimmer, of hope that the Las Vegas economy is poised to climb out of the hole in which it has been hiding. So said Jeremy Aguero, principal analyst with Applied Analysis, a Nevada-based business advisory services firm.

He was the guest speaker at Las Vegas C ity C ouncilman Stavros Anthony's Ward 4 Business Networking meeting April 14 at the c ity of Las Vegas' Durango Hills Community Center YMCA, 3521 N. Durango Drive.

There were 15 attendees.

"If businesses succeed, they create jobs," Anthony said. "When people have jobs, they have more money to spend, and that's what this country was built on."

Aguero has been with Applied Analysis since its inception in 1997 and appears on news programs dealing with financial forecasting for Nevada. His areas of expertise include economic analysis, operational model development and fiscal impact analysis.

As baby boomers age, health industries are not as a ffected by recession, he noted.

That was good news for Sue Cook, whose business, Homewatch Caregivers, 8430 W. Lake Mead Blvd., Suite 146, targets that market. She is hiring 20 workers to add to her force of 18 between now and the end of the year and plans to have 150 employees in the future.

"That's the four-year plan, anyway," she said.

The b est bet for a new business is niche services for those 65 or older, which is the fastest-growing segment of the population, Aguero said.

"They spend money, and they don't take jobs," he said. "They're more active than their parents were ; they're wealthier than their parents were."

They also spend more on professional services -- housekeeping and pool maintenance -- than other segments of the population. Many are drawn to retiring in Las Vegas, which is attractive for its no-state-tax approach and the fact they rarely have to shovel snow from their driveways.

Applied Analysis' statistics show that roughly 34 percent of retirees have an income of $35,000 to $99,999.

While the upcoming closure of the Sahara was seen as "concerning, problematic … the equivalent of Strip folks walking away from their 'house,' " Aguero said business in Ward 4 is better than it was and is slowly stepping forward but is nowhere near the feel-good numbers of 2006.

Office vacancies now stand at 15 to 19 percent for much of the Summerlin area, figures show, with these three ZIP codes at 20 percent or higher: 89117, 89129 and 89144.

The v acancy rate city wide for commercial space is 24 percent and 10 percent for retail.

"I get asked, 'Are we there yet? Have we hit bottom?' " Aguero said. "It's not so much where the bottom is but how long we hang out there."

Ward 4, Aguero said, is seeing improvements in the economic outlook but is taking slow steps forward since last year's county wide unemployment rate was 15.2 percent. Don't expect to go back to a rate of 4.8 percent in Clark County, he said, last seen in 2006.

Thomas Kintonis, whose dental practice is at 8440 W. Lake Mead Blvd., Suite 211, said the best thing that could happen was for the economy to "continue rebounding -- or at least have no major downturns -- and the job situation look brighter."

Education levels are closely tied to jobs. For years, Las Vegas was seen as one of the few places to earn a decent living with nothing more than a high school education.

Aguero asked the audience to guess the No. 1 factor on whether a student would graduate high school. David Dwyer of Dwyer Engineering Inc. suggested it was class behavior -- lack of attention, disrespect and goofing off.

Aguero said the No. 1 variable for graduating high school was the education achievement level of the parents. Second was whether the family moved during the school year , and third was whether the child had learned to read by the third grade. It was critical, he said, as every test requires students to be able to read the questions.

How does Applied Analysis see education tying into the job market?

This year 40 percent of jobs require a college degree. In 2018, it's projected to jump to 55 percent.

The next Ward 4 Business N etworking meeting, and the last until after the summer, is slated for 6 p.m. Thursday at the Durango Hills YMCA. It is scheduled to cover how to market your business, with a representative of Faiss Foley Warren Public Relations & Government Affairs set to speak.

Contact Summerlin and Summerlin South View reporter Jan Hogan at jhogan@viewnews.com or 387-2949.