When will Las Vegas hit bottom? Kelly comments on housing market

Q: I'm wondering when you think we might hit the bottom of the housing market. Are we there yet? If not, when will we know? -- Tiffany P., Las Vegas

A: You're not the only one wondering about such things, so I'm glad you asked.

Of course, the answer is open to debate and depends on who you ask.

In a recent real estate panel discussion held here in Las Vegas, several local housing analysts offered their opinions on this subject. The consensus seemed to be that we may not have reached the bottom yet.

That's assuming, of course, that you define the elusive bottom of the market that everyone seems to be searching for as the time when local housing prices reach their lowest point.

Local experts Steve Bottfeld, Richard Lee, Larry Murphy and Tim Sullivan discussed this and related issues as part of a Fact or Fiction panel discussion at the Oct. 17 meeting of the Las Vegas High-Rise and Condominium Association. All seemed to agree that we really won't know when we've reached the bottom of the market until it's already happened.

These local experts also seemed to agree that we have two of three elements in place to begin having this debate -- increasing home sales and prices and decreasing inventory of homes on the market.

Let's look at the current state of affairs.

First, the number of homes being sold here in Southern Nevada has been increasing, especially in recent months. For instance, according to the latest statistics from the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, the number of single-family homes sold here in Southern Nevada soared by an amazing 181 percent in September, compared to September of 2007.

Second, you can also argue that we meet the criteria for having a stable inventory. GLVAR's statistics show that the number of local homes listed for sale through September decreased by 0.3 percent, with 22,784 homes listed for sale in September compared to 22,710 listed in August. That inventory of homes is down 5.9 percent from last September, which is a good sign.

As for the third and final criteria of seeing local home prices stabilize, or even start to go back up, our GLVAR statistics show that the median price of a single-family home sold in the Las Vegas area decreased by 7.1 percent in September, from $210,000 in August to $195,000 in September. That's down 31.8 percent from a year ago.

I would have to agree with these and other local analysts who are saying that we have to see all three of these factors fall into place before we can safely say we've hit or passed the lowest point of this recent downturn.

If you're asking me to get my crystal ball out and make a prediction, I'd say we may not have hit the absolute bottom. But I think we can at least see if from here.

I'm more confident about the "time to buy" message we at the GLVAR have been talking about for many months.

Instead of trying to guess when we've hit the bottom of the housing market, I encourage people to make their move now -- especially in the market for homes priced under $300,000.

This segment will be the first to see upward pressure since it is most in line with the median income of valley residents. If you're looking for a home in this price range, I'd begin looking sooner rather than later.

If you take the long-term view, prices are unlikely to go much lower. Why risk missing out on a golden opportunity to buy property in this unprecedented buyer's market? If you're ready and qualified and really need to buy a home here in Southern Nevada, you should buy now and take advantage of these bargain prices.

If you wait much longer, you may be looking back on this time someday soon, kicking yourself for letting the bottom pass you by.

For more information on such topics, visit lasvegasrealtor.com or contact an experienced local Realtor.

Patty Kelley is the president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors and has worked in the real estate industry for more than 30 years. GLVAR has nearly 15,000 members. To ask Kelley a question, e-mail her at ask@glvar.org. For more information, visit www.lasvegasrealtor.com.