School officials see past dip

Clark County School District officials hope timing isn't everything.

They're out to persuade voters to approve a $7 billion bond measure in November when the nation's economic downturn is expected to hit rock bottom, Superintendent Walt Rulffes acknowledged Monday.

"There have been reservations over the size of the bond given these economic conditions," Rulffes said. The current bonds are about to expire this year. They provided about two-thirds of funding for new school construction.

The school district's plan to build 73 new schools over the next 10 years comes at a time when this year's enrollment growth is expected to be 1.5 percent, which would represent a four-year low.

Sales tax collections are down across the state, as are casino profits and real estate transactions. Foreclosures have roiled the housing market.

Jeremy Aguero, a principal in the economic research firm Applied Analysis, outlined the need for the bonds during a workshop meeting Monday. He urged the School Board and the public to think long-term. Dips in the economy are normal. The good news is that downturns in Las Vegas usually yield to periods of even greater expansion, Aguero said.

Aguero said he expects the historical trend to continue again because there is so much investment in building new casinos on the Strip. "It seems to me that tomorrow will look much more like yesterday than today," he said.

Pointing to projects such as the CityCenter development under construction on the Strip, he said, "We're not going to have all the employees to fill all the jobs we're going to create in the next 10 years."

Aguero expects Southern Nevada's population by 2020 will grow to 3 million, from 2 million.

"The message I got from Jeremy is that the growth is not going to be slow for long," said Joyce Haldeman, the school district's associate superintendent for community and government relations.

The Clark County School District is the fifth-largest school system in the country with 308,783 students, and district officials predict enrollment will grow to 473,000 students by 2018.

If a bond program isn't approved, officials have said, consequences would include double sessions and more elementary schools converting to year-round schedules.

School officials said the public has historically supported money for new schools if transparency and accountability exist.

Haldeman said the new bond measure would not represent a tax increase because it would continue the same tax rate, $0.5534 per $100 of assessed value, of the bonds that are expiring this year.

"It's simply a rollover of existing revenue," Haldeman said.

The $7 billion that would be supported through property taxes makes up most of the district's overall $9.5 billion proposal. The additional $2.5 billion will come from a hotel room tax and the real estate transfer tax.

The district plans to spend $5.1 billion on 53 new elementary school, 16 middle schools and four high schools.

Another $4.4 billion is earmarked for site acquisition, replacement schools, renovations and other capital projects.

When the final schools are constructed in August 2010 from the program launched in 1998, 101 new schools and 11 replacement schools will have been built, officials say. The district had expected to build 88 new schools under that program.

School Board member Ruth Johnson said people are understandably concerned about the economic downturn. But she said she can see people physically relax when she explains the details of the new bond measure.

"I know there's going to be questions," Johnson said. "I think that's legitimate. The board would welcome it."

The district is starting to put together brochures and informational materials about the bond measure, district spokeswoman Leah Marchione said. Committees are being formed, but the major publicity campaign will not start in earnest until August.

District funds are not being used for the campaign, Marchione said. Public relations firm R&R Partners does the work pro bono, she said.

Aguero said the public should think of the bonds as an investment.

School construction, he said, is "not going to get any easier or less expensive."

Contact reporter James Haug at jhaug@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4686.