Late pickups can bolster playoff hopes
This is it, folks.
Crunch time.
We're in the final few weeks of the regular season, and what happens in the coming weeks is crucial.
Here are a few rules to live by as the going gets tough, and the tough gets the top seed in the playoffs.
• Rule No. 1 -- Comb the waiver wire like a balding man trying to save face. This late in the year, running backs are wearing down. Don't be a fool and miss out on a late-season gem because you weren't paying attention.
Heck, last week's Adrian Peterson injury -- yes, guys, I know it hurts -- opened the door for Chester Taylor. Taylor could perform as a top-15 back during the next few weeks.
• Rule No. 2 -- It does no good to have a backup for a superstar quarterback late in the season. If you have Tom Brady, why in the world would you keep a Ben Roethlisberger on your roster? Big Ben has been great, but he's not supplanting Brady. Try to package a good backup with a secondary wideout or running back to upgrade at your skill positions.
For lower-tier backups to stars such as Brady, Tony Romo and Carson Palmer -- maybe someone like a Philip Rivers or a Jay Cutler -- toss them to the waiver wire and pick up either a fourth or fifth wideout or a good backup running back.
• Rule No. 3 -- Do your best to get into the playoffs -- anything can happen. Last year, one of my buddies entered the playoffs as the sixth seed with a 7-6 record. Then Reggie Bush and Chad Johnson carried him to the title. Never lose hope, unless you're absolutely out of contention.
On to the locks of the week.
MONEYMAKERS
Top-tier players who should perform to their value:
• Terrell Owens, Dallas wide receiver vs. Washington: Owens has three straight 100-yard games, and it seems as if his case of the early season drops might be fading. Owens has scored five touchdowns in his last four games, and if not for Randy Moss' out-of-his-mind season for New England, the Dallas great would be the best receiver in the league. No reason to expect Romo to stop throwing to him this week against a struggling Redskins defense.
• Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis wide receiver vs. Kansas City: For as much as I love Marvin Harrison -- but hate the fact that I drafted him this year -- Wayne has taken the torch from the Colts' longtime leader. Wayne has been almost automatic this season. Even when Peyton Manning fails to target him, Wayne still gets around six or seven points. Double that this week.
• Willie Parker, Pittsburgh running back vs. New York Jets: A couple of weeks back I described the "Belichick Effect," whereby coaches tend to mix it up in the red zone rather than give the ball to their stud running back. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin might be the worst offender this season, and Parker has suffered, as his 97 yards-per-game average is coupled with only two touchdowns. That figures to change against the Jets.
WINGMEN
Midround picks who should feast on favorable matchups:
• Taylor, Minnesota running back vs. Oakland: Oh, how I wish Peterson was healthy. Against the Raiders, he might have rushed for 300 yards. Taylor could do half that and still would be a tremendous steal off the waiver wire. Don't forget -- Taylor had 1,200-plus yards last year and was picked in the sixth round in most leagues.
• LenDale White, Tennessee running back vs. Denver: I met White at the Reggie Bush Camp 619 event in San Diego earlier this year. Put it this way: When my gut is about the same size as a starting NFL running back's, I'm skeptical. But White has laid off the Krispy Kremes and had a fantastic three-game streak of 100-plus yards ended last week against a stout Jacksonville run defense. Now he gets the shaky Broncos. Change is expected.
• Hines Ward, Pittsburgh wide receiver vs. New York Jets: Despite missing two games and being injured in a third, Ward has put up somewhat respectable numbers. Roethlisberger has rekindled his connection with Ward, who has three touchdowns in the last three weeks, but zero 100-yard games this season.
BANK-BREAKERS
Top-tier guys who won't perform up to their value:
• Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati running back vs. Arizona: The surprisingly good Cardinals rush defense is the least of Johnson's worries. The Bengals' offensive line still is banged up, and Kenny Watson keeps creeping into his carries.
• Lee Evans, Buffalo wide receiver vs. New England: For all the Patriots' offensive success this season, the most striking change on the squad is the pass defense, bolstered by the free-agent acquisition of linebacker Adalius Thomas. Evans won't find any room this week.
QUICK PICK SIX
The best bets for the week, based on value:
Taylor, White, WR Chris Henry (vs. Arizona), WR Greg Jennings (vs. Carolina), RB Earnest Graham (vs. Atlanta), WR Andre Johnson (vs. New Orleans).
Jon Gold is a Review-Journal sportswriter with 10 fantasy football teams. His column is published Friday. He can be reached at jgold@reviewjournal.com.
