Nevada’s jobless rate rises to 13.4 percent

Nevada's jobless rate set a record in March, as nearly 200,000 Nevadans continued the hunt for work.

Observers said they see signs that the state's brutal job market is stabilizing, with several key indicators pointing upward.

First, the bleak statistics: Unemployment statewide rose to a record 13.4 percent in March, up from 13.2 percent in February. Joblessness in Las Vegas declined slightly, dipping to 13.8 percent. That's down from a high of 13.9 percent in February.

In all, 186,900 Nevadans, including 136,000 Las Vegans, were unemployed and seeking work in March.

Economists seasonally adjust the state's unemployment rate, but they don't have enough data to seasonally tweak local numbers. Unadjusted, the state's jobless rate dropped from 13.7 percent to 13.6 percent.

Spring usually brings improvements in labor markets, as the weather warms and construction projects pick up. This year's seasonal bump was weaker than normal, said Bill Anderson, the employment department's chief economist.

"That's a reflection of the overall weakness in the economy," Anderson said. "Nationally, there's growing sentiment that the recession may be over, but here in Nevada, we're not feeling the impact of that yet. The recession still has a strong hold on Nevada, and as a result, that's going to prohibit any significant improvements in our numbers."

Economists have said unemployment in Nevada is considerably higher if you include part-timers who'd prefer full-time work and discouraged workers who've quit looking for jobs. Factor in those demographics, and statewide joblessness probably is closer to 25 percent.

For most states, the jobs picture improved in March.

Thirty-three states posted job gains in the month, while 17 states lost jobs, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. That's an improvement from February, when 23 states saw job increases and 27 experienced declines.

Maryland led the country in job growth, with the addition of 35,800 jobs in March. Virginia and Pennsylvania saw more than 20,000 new jobs.

Michigan posted the most job losses, with 9,500 cuts in the month.

Michigan has the country's worst unemployment rate, at 14.1 percent. Nevada ranks second. California and Rhode Island tie for third, at 12.6 percent. That number is a record for the Golden State.

Nationally, joblessness is 9.7 percent.

State officials recorded 4,300 job losses in Nevada in March.

The construction industry shed 4,000 jobs statewide, while professional and business services such as accounting, architecture and law cut 3,700 jobs. Offsetting those losses were increases of 1,800 jobs in hospitality and leisure and 1,100 jobs in trade, transportation and utilities. The federal government also hired 400 Nevadans as temporary workers to help count the nation's population. The U.S. Census Bureau plans to hire about 4,800 workers in Nevada through the summer.

Blame Nevada's poorer-than-average fortunes on its reliance on construction and hospitality, the state's two leading employment sectors before the recession. Construction employment crumbled when the housing bubble burst and resort-building stopped. Hospitality markets fell apart when locals and tourists alike saw big losses in discretionary dollars for traveling, eating out and shopping.

Anderson said Nevada's revival relies on sustained growth in the national economy and improved consumer confidence. Until those factors materialize, Nevada's economy "will continue to bounce along the bottom without any real direction," he said.

But some indicators hint that Nevada's economy could be emerging from its toughest times.

Jeremy Aguero, principal in local consulting and research firm Applied Analysis, said the state's tourism sector has flashed "encouraging signs" lately. Visitor volume, gaming revenue and traffic along Interstate 15 have all trended upward in recent months.

"Hotels are fuller than they were six months ago, and gaming tables are busier than they were six months ago," Aguero said. "More often than we should, we (the market) are asking one person to do the jobs of two or three people. Something has to give there. I think businesses, including the gaming industry, have somewhat of a short memory. As the economy starts to improve, we should start to see that reflected in employment numbers."

What's more, even as employment trends remain negative year over year, job losses have moderated recently. Year-over-year losses peaked in August at 133,200 jobs. Year-over-year in March, the state lost 50,100 jobs.

Twelve-month unemployment comparisons also have improved. The change in joblessness peaked at 5.7 percentage points in June, when unemployment jumped from 6.4 percent to 12.1 percent year over year. March's jobless level was just 2.9 percentage points higher than the unemployment rate in the same month a year earlier. If the year-over-year gap continues to shrink at that pace, then annualized employment growth will emerge in late 2010, the employment department said. That would bring with it a decline in year-over-year joblessness.

"I'm quite confident in saying the worst of the deterioration is behind us," Anderson said.

That doesn't mean Nevadans can expect overnight improvements in their job prospects.

Anderson said he expects unemployment in Nevada to bump along at the bottom for a while.

Added Aguero: "I don't know how we can have any serious conversation about recovery until the nation starts to recover some of the 8 million jobs it lost, and we start getting the 180,000 unemployed Nevadans back to work."

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said in a statement that news of the latest jump in Nevada's unemployment rate was "disappointing."

But he added that investments in clean energy and tourism would help the state's employment outlook. Projects including a power-transmission line linking electric grids statewide, a wind-turbine factory and a solar plant in the Eldorado Valley will boost prospects for job hunters, Reid said.

Reid also pointed to March's federal Travel Promotion Act as a boon to the state's hospitality and leisure sector.

"There is a lot happening for Nevada and more that we need to do, but by working together we can weather this storm," he said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. Contact reporter Jennifer Robison at jrobison@review journal.com or 702-380-4512.