Nothing against move to Nevada

The Silver State's reputation as a haven of nonstop economic progress began sporting some tarnish in 2007.

Annual job growth in Nevada plunged from 6 percent in 2006 to 1 percent by late 2007. Unemployment jumped from 4 percent in late 2006 to 5.2 percent at the end of 2007 -- half a percent beyond the national average. Headlines in national publications trumpeted Nevada's nation-leading level of foreclosures and asked whether Las Vegas faces a serious bust on the Strip.

But those facts don't appear to have substantially suppressed relocation to Nevada last year.

First, a migration study from United Van Lines found that Nevada ranked No. 2 in the nation for its share of inbound moves in 2007. The moving company said 59.4 percent of the Nevada-related trips it made in 2007 were for clients moving to the state. Only North Carolina, with 61.6 percent inbound, fared better.

And though Las Vegas no longer sits at or near the top of U-Haul's roster of top destinations among people moving more than 50 miles, the city still managed a respectable No. 13 on the 2007 list. Las Vegas finished ahead of New York City; San Francisco; Phoenix; Sacramento, Calif.; and Austin, Texas, among other big cities.

Census statistics support the companies' findings that Nevada remained popular among transplanting Americans in 2007.

After 19 years claiming No. 1 for population growth, Nevada dropped to No. 2 as Arizona surged in 2005, U.S. Census data revealed. By the 2006-07 measuring period, though, Nevada was back on top, with 2.9 percent population expansion. Arizona fell back to No. 2, with 2.8 percent growth.

So why, despite its relatively sluggish economy, does Nevada continue to attract legions of migrants?

United Van Lines and U-Haul didn't offer demographic details on clients by press time, but local economists cited several population segments likely to express continued interest in Nevada.

Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said people move long distances for two key reasons: economic opportunities and amenities.

Economic opportunities could entail more jobs, higher-paying work or cheaper housing.

Those moving for amenities include retirees seeking warmer weather, or people wanting to live closer to relatives.

Schwer's research has found that new Las Vegans are largely younger and well-educated, which would indicate they're coming to the area mostly for career possibilities, he said. While parts of Nevada's economy struggle today, the state's sustained population increases suggest many new locals are considering economic prospects well into the future.

"Someone might say, 'I'm better off moving, because things over the long run are likely to be better in Las Vegas than they are where I am,'" Schwer said.

Brian Gordon, a principal in local research firm Applied Analysis, said another type of economic advantage could be buoying Nevada's population growth.

The Silver State maintains a distinct edge over California, its top feeder market for residents, in cost of living, with lower taxes and more affordable housing.

Also, job growth in the construction and gaming sectors might be flat, but other parts of Nevada's economy are humming, Gordon added -- for example, health care and education are thriving here. That leaves pockets of opportunity for thousands of prospective residents.

In addition, though Clark County has fallen from its record levels of population expansion three years ago, it continues to collect a substantial set of new citizens, Gordon said. Three years ago, the Department of Motor Vehicles posted more than 90,000 drivers' license turn-ins in the county annually. Today, 70,000 to 75,000 residents hand in out-of-state licenses, still a major chunk of population.

Both Schwer and Gordon said the megaresort boom poised to hit the Strip in 2009 with the opening of CityCenter could push population growth in Las Vegas back to its historic levels.

"The outlook remains positive," Gordon said. "New hotel-casinos will continue to demand employees, and Las Vegas in general remains one of the fastest-growing economies in terms of population. Certainly, the employment sector is going through a period of correction, but the overall base of population continues to expand."

Contact reporter Jennifer Robison at jrobison@reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4512.