Southern Nevada economic index up

An index of Southern Nevada's economy shows a slight upward trend this year, suggesting the outlook for Las Vegas employment may finally be improving, even as the national economy weakened, a UNLV research analyst said Tuesday.

The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators edged up to 123.63 in July, a 0.53 percent increase from the previous month, but down from 125.47 a year ago, the Center for Business and Economic Research reported.

Seven of the 10 data series contributed positively to the index, including a strong 0.5 percent push from gaming revenue. McCarran International Airport's passenger count was next, with a 0.08 percent contribution.

The improvement in gaming revenue was largely due to strong baccarat play, slot machine wagering and sports book performance, said Bob Potts, assistant director of the research center at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

The biggest concern is the possibility of further reduction in consumers' discretionary spending, which has already taken a bite out of Las Vegas' tourism-based economy, Potts said. On the same day he was writing his report on the index the Dow dropped 634 points.

"If there's uncertainty out there, they're going to cocoon," Potts said Tuesday. "The truth is, we know from the past people still spend on entertainment, and all the preliminary indicators show strong numbers for June."

The economic index, compiled by the Center for Business and Economic Research, is a six-month forecast from the month of data, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjustment for seasonal variation. July's index is based on May data.

Gaming revenue grew 19.4 percent from the previous year to $853.5 million in May; visitor volume rose 3.3 percent, to 3.37 million; and the airport passenger count increased 5.1 percent to 3.65 million.

On the decline were gallons of gasoline used, down 3.1 percent to 62.2 million; residential building permits, down 0.2 percent to 450; and convention attendance, down 0.2 percent to 352,303.

Potts noted that the index has been up and down this year, gaining back ground in July that was lost in June.

"So it's up and down, up and down, but at the end of the day, you can see it slightly heading up and that's a positive sign, but nothing consistent month to month to draw conclusions," the analyst said. "I'd like to see three positive months before I feel comfortable that we'll see job creation."

While a separate Clark County Tourism Index rose 10.2 percent from a year ago, the Clark County Construction Index fell 8.2 percent.

Since May 2010, construction employment fell by 15.8 percent, residential permits fell by 0.2 percent and commercial permits grew by 11.5 percent.

For May, there were 450 residential permits and 29 commercial permits, not a lot of activity for Clark County's size, Potts said. Most of the workers still employed in the construction industry are not working on new projects, but doing repairs and remodels of existing structures, he said.

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.