First Hispanic governor, Brian Sandoval, is the rising hope of GOP
Is Gov. Brian Sandoval the white knight Nevada Republicans have been waiting for?
Fractured by the 2010 elections, the GOP certainly seems in need of rescue. And leaders on the national and state levels point to the popular and telegenic Sandoval as a promising standard-bearer.
As Nevada's first Hispanic governor, he's the rising hope of Republicans organizing to better compete in the 2012 election. A U.S. Senate seat, four House districts and the White House will be at stake as well as control of the Nevada Legislature, where the GOP's goal is to retake the Senate majority.
"He has a real opportunity to lead. He's in the state full time and he has the ability to lead," Republican Rep. Dean Heller said. "His plate is full, but he has expressed a commitment to help with the party."
The two men worked together from 2003 through 2005, when Sandoval was attorney general and Heller was secretary of state. Then the GOP ruled the Capitol, inhabiting all top state offices as well as the Governor's Mansion. Now, Sandoval and his GOP Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki are surrounded by Democrats, who have been making gains for much of the past decade.
After taking office Jan. 3, Sandoval said his first priorities will be to bring Nevada back from a deep recession and to reach out to Democratic legislative leaders during the 2011 session to balance a state budget -- not an easy task when there's a deficit of at least $1 billion projected.
As a result, Sandoval is expected to avoid public partisan fights like those that marked the administration of Gov. Jim Gibbons, who vetoed dozens of bills and lost the GOP primary. Instead, Sandoval will likely play a more behind-the-scenes role in protecting GOP interests. At the same time, the handsome family man will serve as a fresh public face of a party in need of crossover appeal -- to minorities and moderates as well as independents and conservatives.
"Brian Sandoval is the closest thing the Republicans have to a white knight, so he could very well be a good rider on the horse," said Mark Peplowski, political science professor at the College of Southern Nevada. "But he can't be the horses, too."
Sandoval will need a following. "The biggest problem is there are several disjointed parts of the Republican Party in Nevada, and trying to please all these parts is going to be difficult," Peplowski said.
Leadership vacuum
For now, Sandoval is benefitting from comparisons to Gibbons -- a disengaged governor who divorced while in office -- and another scandal-plagued Republican, U.S. Sen. John Ensign. The senator was a GOP star with White House aspirations until his downfall in the summer of 2009. He confessed to an extramarital affair and became the target of multiple ethics investigations.
The Department of Justice has said Ensign no longer is a target of its investigation related to whether he helped get lobbying work for an ex-top aide, the husband of his former mistress. The Senate Ethics Committee is still reviewing the matter.
Although Ensign said he plans to run for re-election in 2012, GOP leaders privately are pushing Heller to get into the race, figuring this is their best chance of holding the seat. One early poll shows Ensign losing and Heller winning against several possible Democratic foes. In two years, the GOP hopes to regain control of the U.S. Senate, where Democrats control 53 seats -- including two held by independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut -- after losing six in 2010.
Like Sandoval, the popular Heller also is seen as a potential GOP leader. He, too, could help whip the party into shape and find common ground between Tea Party conservatives and moderates. By tradition, however, more powerful governors or U.S. senators often take the lead in fundraising, picking candidates and enforcing party discipline to avoid divisive primaries.
In Nevada, the best Republican example is Paul Laxalt, a former governor and U.S. senator who retired from public office in 1987. Sandoval, in his inaugural address last Monday, cited the 88-year-old Laxalt as his first political mentor. As party boss, Laxalt would pick and choose GOP leaders and candidates at every level, from county seats to Congress.
"The last person to really build the party was Paul Laxalt," Heller said. "But we haven't seen much party-building since. I see some opportunity now with myself, Sandoval and Joe Heck working together."
In 2010, Heck, a conservative former state senator, narrowly beat freshman Rep. Dina Titus, D-Nev., in the 3rd Congressional District. He'll need to focus most on getting re-elected, Heller said, explaining, "The first re-elect is the toughest."
Heller refused to discuss whether he would jump into the U.S. Senate race. If he does, it would be in his interest to become heavily involved in rebuilding the GOP to ensure its fundraising and campaign organizing are fully behind him.
As for Sandoval, the governor will be expected to make sure Heller's and Heck's seats remain in GOP hands as legislators redraw congressional district lines after the U.S. census awarded Nevada a fourth House seat. The state's two other congressional districts, including the new one, will likely be drawn to favor Democrats, who dominate voter-rich Clark County.
Redistricting, which happens once a decade, is an especially partisan battle. Each party tries to draw lines at the federal, state and local levels to its benefit, hoping to guarantee electoral gains far into the future. Sandoval has the power to veto any legislative plan he thinks is unfair to Republicans.
Sandoval said he understands he must play a dual role as both the state and party leader. He said he's working closely with fellow Republicans, specifically naming Ensign, Heller and Heck, as well as state Senate Minority Leader Mike McGinness of Fallon and Assembly Minority Leader Pete Goicoechea of Eureka.
"I recognize that as governor, in addition to my duties on behalf of all Nevadans, I have responsibilities to help lead the Nevada Republican Party," Sandoval said in a statement. His GOP job, he added, is "to ensure that the Republican Party in Nevada provides leadership on state spending, taxes, education reform, reapportionment, and a host of other issues."
Sandoval said he also has spoken with former Gov. Bob List, a national Republican committeeman, about preparing for the GOP presidential caucus in February of 2012. Nevada and its new governor will get heavy national attention as the third early voting state after Iowa and New Hampshire, contests that will help decide the GOP nominee.
Already, Sandoval, 47, has been in the media spotlight as a rising Hispanic figure in the Republican Party. He started his political career in the Assembly in the 1990s then served on the Nevada Gaming Commission, rising to chairman from 1999 to 2001. After he served as attorney general, he won a lifetime appointment as a federal judge. He quit to run for governor.
Sandoval, who moved to Nevada as a boy, comes to office with good will and political capital. A survey last week by Public Policy Polling showed he is one of the most popular new governors, with a favorability rating of 57 percent. His high profile has led to speculation he's heading toward higher office, either a U.S. Senate seat or a vice presidential spot on the GOP ticket.
"I am absolutely committing to four years" as governor, Sandoval said recently, dismissing the rumors but clearly pleased by the buzz. "It is a privilege and an honor to serve as governor of the state of Nevada."
The Democratic model
Two years ago, all the attention fell on the well-organized Democratic Party in Nevada and its 2008 presidential caucus as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hotly competed for the electoral prize.
In preparation, U.S. Sen. Harry Reid led Democrats' effort to register 100,000 new voters. It gave his party the edge over the GOP in the state, handed Obama a November victory here and set the stage for Reid's own re-election in 2010.
Reid beat Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle in a race that sharply divided Republicans between her conservative supporters and moderates. Some GOP leaders even backed Reid. Deep GOP divisions began years earlier, however, when the late Gov. Kenny Guinn upset conservatives by pushing for a record $833 million tax hike in 2003 all the way to the Nevada Supreme Court. (Sandoval, as attorney general, handled the case, a point his critics brought up during his gubernatorial campaign.)
Reid's 2010 victory topped a decade of rebuilding the state Democratic Party. He attracted millions of dollars in political contributions, recruited candidates, organized from the precinct up and avoided competitive primaries by anointing contenders. It's a model the Republicans want to replicate.
"We've got lots of work to do," former Gov. List said. "But I think we're on a path toward greater strength. We want Sandoval to step in and take ownership. We're not expecting that the day after tomorrow he's going to be spending a lot of time on party affairs, but the governor generally drives the party's direction and policy."
Heidi Smith, the national Republican committeewoman, said she, List and state party chairman Mark Amodei have been making battle plans. They plan to travel to Washington, D.C., Monday to meet with the Republican National Committee.
"We have to come together in 2012," Smith said. "No more fractured groups trying to take over control. We have people we voted in. And we have to listen to each other."
Frank Ricotta, head of the Clark County Republican Party, said he's optimistic Sandoval will carry through with his pledge not to raise taxes, including by using his veto pen if needed. Ricotta led members of the Tea Party movement in taking over the county party in 2010 with the goal of pressing Republicans to trim government and spending.
Sandoval already has reached out to Ricotta, and the two plan to meet soon.
"It looks like he's going to be a man of his word and he's going to try and make the government smaller and require some accountability," Ricotta said. "I look forward to him providing party leadership in this state, leadership that we haven't had in the past."
Before the real legislative and party battles have begun, Sandoval has managed to please conservatives and moderates with his no-tax pledge on the one hand and his early appointments on the other. He made former Assembly Minority Leader Heidi Gansert his chief of staff and appointed several people with strong backgrounds in education and health and human services.
During his campaign, Sandoval kept both moderate and conservative GOP factions at arm's length, running as his own man after he was recruited by business lobbyists and political operatives outside the party structure. He stayed away from most Tea Party events and held a separate election night victory party away from the main GOP gathering with Heck and Angle.
Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, said Sandoval is like an empty slate for many Republicans and Nevadans who may be projecting their own hopes onto him.
"Right now, anybody watching Brian Sandoval can define Brian Sandoval to meet their wishes," Herzik said. "Moderate Republicans think he's going to be moderate Brian. Conservatives, I think, are still suspicious, but have to like his increasingly hard line on taxes."
Herzik, however, thinks neither Sandoval nor Heller has demonstrated the hardball politics and tough decision-making of Reid and Laxalt, two masters of the game.
"I think the party's more fractured than they were before 2010," he said.
As an example, Herzik pointed to the surprise retirement last week of state Sen. Bill Raggio of Reno. Citing health reasons, the 84-year-old announced he was leaving after 38 years in the state Senate and after he was ousted from GOP leadership by conservatives. His detractors criticized him for backing big tax hikes in 2003 and 2009 and for endorsing Reid over Angle.
"I would guess that many of these folks who backed Angle and the Tea Party are cheering that Bill Raggio has left the stage," Herzik said. "And moderates are hoping that somebody steps up who isn't some self-proclaimed conservative that throws some people out of the party and keeps others in."
Sandoval worked at the same law firm as Raggio last year and held him in high regard. "If the state of Nevada had a Mount Rushmore for public servants, Bill Raggio's image would be etched on its face," Sandoval said in a statement, calling Raggio "a friend and a mentor."
"The Nevada Legislature will never be the same," Sandoval added.
Neither will the Republican Party, and most observers see a still-rocky road ahead.
Steve Wark, a former state and Clark County party chairman, said it will be tough for anybody -- whether Sandoval or another strong GOP hand -- to bring factions of the Republican Party together and to raise money at a time of tight budgets with the business community's loyalties divided.
"It takes a lot of patience and a lot of determination," Wark said. "Half of the party is with you and the other half is throwing marbles at your feet trying to trip you up."
Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.
