Obama ahead, Romney gains independents in Nevada poll
President Barack Obama recovered lost ground among older Nevada voters since his dismal first-debate performance against Mitt Romney, according to a new poll that shows the Democratic incumbent holding a precarious three-point edge over his GOP challenger, 48 percent to 45 percent.
Romney expanded his lead over Obama among independents in the battleground state, so the White House race remains close, according to the survey commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and 8NewsNow.
The findings of the SurveyUSA poll suggest Obama survived Romney's bump in popularity after his Oct. 3 debate victory. Tuesday night's second debate could set the direction for the last three weeks of the campaign, with one final face-off left before the Nov. 6 election, the pollster said.
"Obama's bleeding has been stopped and things have been stabilized just in time for Obama and Romney to go at it again," said Jay Leve of SurveyUSA. "Obama definitely lost blood, but it wasn't fatal."
The first debate revived Romney's campaign in Nevada and other swing states as well as in national polls. In Nevada, Romney's stock ticked up, putting him within one point of Obama (47-46) in the first post-debate SurveyUSA poll.
After the Oct. 3 face-off, Romney's lead among Nevada voters age 50 and older grew, giving him a nine-point advantage over Obama among that group. But the president closed the gap in the latest poll, which was taken after the Oct. 11 debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.
Now, Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent among Nevada voters 50 and older, according to the new poll.
Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, attributed the Obama comeback among older Nevadans to Biden's debate attack on Ryan's Medicare proposal, which the vice president said would "eliminate the guarantee of Medicare." Ryan countered that he wants to "honor" the promise of Medicare and keep it from going bankrupt by offering future retirees younger than 55 government reimbursement for private insurance.
"Ryan is painted with a bad Medicare message, and Biden was effective," Herzik said.
Presidential debates don't often swing elections, but Herzik said Romney's sharply delivered message that Obama hasn't done enough to revive the economy hit home, especially in Nevada with the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 12.1 percent. Romney also noted that economic growth had slowed year by year under Obama.
"Romney got back to the economy with a couple of key lines that were like body blows to the Democrats," Herzik said. Tuesday's debate "will be very important" in determining who gains momentum in the race.
Romney has made the most of his recent gains, according to a series of three SurveyUSA polls, among independents, who could swing the Nevada election with nearly one in five voters registered as nonpartisan.
Romney was edging out Obama among independents by five points in August before the two parties' nominating conventions. He expanded his lead to eight points (47-39) after the first debate. The new poll shows Romney with an 18-point lead over Obama among independent voters, or 52 percent to 34 percent.
Romney also ticked up among moderates, narrowing the gap with Obama, who now leads 53-41 among that group in the latest poll compared with 57-36 in the first poll taken after the debate, Leve noted.
"Romney made inroads among independents and among moderates, and that counts for something," Leve said. "But it's not enough to overcome a drift back toward" Obama in Nevada, a state he won easily four years ago.
In the new poll, Nevada voters remained equally split on whether they like or dislike the two candidates. Obama was seen favorably by 44 percent of those polled and unfavorably by 45 percent. Romney's measure was 43-43.
Democrats have a voter registration advantage over Republicans in Nevada of about 90,000 statewide and more than 127,000 in Clark County, where 70 percent of the population lives. If Obama turns out his voters, Romney would have a hard time overcoming the tide unless he makes greater gains among nonpartisans, Leve said.
The new poll shows Obama edging Romney in Las Vegas, 49-48, and the president leading in the rest of Clark County, 51-40. In Washoe County, Romney was edging Obama, 48-46. Across GOP-leaning rural Nevada, Romney was stomping Obama, 58-36.
Robert Gibbs, a senior Obama campaign adviser, said in an interview that the president always knew the race would tighten as Nov. 6 drew near, but that he believes the president is well positioned to win re-election.
"I think we're in a good spot, not just in Nevada, but in all the battleground states," Gibbs said Tuesday from New York, where he was helping Obama prepare for the second debate. "Tonight's debate is an important one for the president to forcefully lay out a vision for what he wants to do for the next four years."
Obama wants to expand the economy "from the middle class out" while Romney wants to do it "from the top down," Gibbs said, delivering a populist message the president hopes will return him to Washington.
Gibbs said the White House race will probably be decided "by a bunch of voters in the middle," including independent-minded swing voters who appear to be shifting more toward Romney. But Gibbs said the Obama campaign has built up a hard-to-beat registration advantage in states such as Nevada.
"We've made a concerted effort to make sure we try to change the makeup of the electorate in places like Nevada," Gibbs said. "We registered a bunch of voters in Nevada. We'll get these guys excited to turn out on Election Day."
Darren Littell, communications director for Team Nevada, which is running the GOP effort in the state, said Republicans are pleased that Romney continues to gain support from independents, and they see victory in sight.
"The gain in independents is not shocking because they are most likely to swing, and they've seen that Governor Romney is not only a plausible alternative to President Obama, but a better alternative," Littell said. "He's more preferable to four more years of the same."
The new survey didn't show much movement among most voter groups. Men continue to favor Romney over Obama, 49-44, and women far prefer the president, 52-42 - a gap barely changed since the summer.
Among Hispanics, Obama leads Romney 52 percent to 44 percent, according to the poll, although other surveys have shown the president out-polling his GOP challenger among Latinos by much wider margins.
The telephone poll of 806 likely Nevada voters was conducted in English and Spanish between Thursday and Monday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Those questioned included 20 percent Hispanics, which is several points higher than the Latino turnout in the past two elections.
About 40 percent of those surveyed are Democrats, 31 percent Republicans and 27 percent independents, which roughly matches voter registration in Nevada, although nonpartisans are about one-fifth of the electorate.
Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919. Follow @lmyerslvrj on Twitter.
