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Political Eye: Sandoval won’t be veep – this time

Maybe next time.

Even before GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney named U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., his running mate, Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval had dropped out of real contention, if he were ever truly in the game.

But when it came to speculation from political analysts, Sandoval remained in the mix right up until Saturday's vice presidential announcement. Some believed Nevada's popular governor could help Romney win over Hispanic and independent voters who probably will decide the White House race in key battleground states.

And he would have been a moderate voice of reason, a less risky choice than the young conservative Ryan.

But Romney picked Ryan to shake up the race, which has less than three months remaining before the Nov. 6 election and his chance to replace President Barack Obama in the White House.

"I think there are other 'bold picks' that Mr. Romney could have made - Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, for instance, or Governors Chris Christie of New Jersey or Brian Sandoval of Nevada - where the balance of risk and reward would have been a little better," Nate Silver of The New York Times wrote on Saturday hours after Romney announced Ryan would share the GOP ticket.

"Some of these candidates, especially Mr. Rubio and Mr. Christie, would also have excited the Republican base. But they might also have had a more natural appeal to independent voters, and to demographic groups that Mr. Romney is struggling to win over."

Silver, a mathematically driven political oddsmaker, wrote a couple of pieces last week on the vice presidential guessing game as Romney prepared to make his pick ahead of the Republican National Convention, which starts Aug. 27 in Tampa, Fla.

In one article that measured how Romney's vice presidential pick could sway the outcome of the White House race, Silver said five candidates with high popularity ratings in their home states could help the GOP candidate the most.

Sandoval was among them with a favorability rating of 55 percent in Nevada, with 31 percent of the state's residents holding an unfavorable view of the governor. That net positive rating of 24 points means, in theory, Sandoval could have added 3.5 percentage points for Romney against Obama here, Silver figured.

That's about the current gap between the two candidates in an average of recent Nevada polling, he said.

The conclusion: Although Nevada's six Electoral College votes aren't a huge prize, they could make the difference in a very tight national race with Romney and Obama competing fiercely for the battlegrounds.

Nevada has "become a bit Democratic leaning, based on the polls there so far this year and its recent voting, but not by much," Silver writes. "Mr. Sandoval could turn the state from slightly Democratic-leaning to slightly Republican-leaning, which is the optimal case for Mr. Romney."

In contrast, Ryan has a favorability rating of 38 percent in Wisconsin and an unfavorability rating of 33 percent. On the day before the Ryan pick, Silver on Friday made the case for choosing Sandoval as a moderate Hispanic Republican who could appeal to both the independents and Latinos Romney needs to win.

"Presenting someone who is a fresh face to voters in all senses of the term - demographically, ideologically and otherwise - could mitigate that" GOP unpopularity, Silver wrote.

Perhaps, but the odds of Sandoval joining the Romney ticket were about as high as the odds of going down to the Strip with $10 in your pocket and walking away with $10 million after a night of gambling.

Sandoval, in office two years, said in late June that he wasn't being vetted as far as he knew.

And that was fine with him.

"I love my job," Sandoval said, speaking to the Las Vegas Review-Journal editorial board.

If Sandoval wins re-election in 2014 and continues to be popular, he could put himself in a position to share the GOP presidential ticket in 2016 in the No. 2 spot.

Speculation already has begun that if the Romney-Ryan team goes down in defeat, Ryan may run for president in 2016.

He probably will need some help winning Nevada, which probably will remain a battleground state.

- Laura Myers

SUPERMARKET SHUFFLE

Here in the state capital, residents have become accustomed to protesters and large banners being placed in front of government buildings calling for an end to corruption in state government. It's no big deal anymore.

But the scene at the local Smith's supermarket about 4:30 p.m. Aug. 6 could have been out of a comic strip.

Nevada Department of Transportation Director Susan Martinovich jumped from one car to another while trying to evade Ty Robben. He was trying to serve papers to require her to appear at a Tuesday personnel hearing over her dismissal of former state pilot James Richardson.

Martinovich, according to Robben, drove over his foot when he tried to serve the legal papers. He filed a hit-and-run complaint with the Carson City Sheriff's Office. She filed a harassment complaint against Robben. She wants a restraining order to prevent him from coming anywhere near her.

But Scott Magruder, the Transportation Department spokesman, said he was with Martinovich, who became frightened when Robben "banged" on her car windows.

"It was kind of comical," Robben said of the incident, asserting Martinovich just should have accepted service when he appeared at her office last week.

Although his foot is causing him pain, Robben said he has been "too busy" to seek medical attention and lacks insurance. Magruder said he doubts Robben's foot even was touched and believes the Smith's video cameras will show it wasn't.

Robben was fired in 2009 by the Department of Taxation and has been fighting that dismissal in court. He awaits a decision from the Nevada Supreme Court that might take another year.

He said that anyone can be a process server and that he was trying to help out Richardson, a friend.

Since his dismissal, he and people like Richardson, fired by Martinovich in 2008 from his pilot's job, have been leading protests against state government officials.

"I am the victim here," Robben said. "She ran over my foot and filed a false report."

Richardson has won several court decisions requiring the Transportation Department to give him back pay and put him back to work. But he has contended they are trying to return him to jobs where he would seldom, if ever, fly. He also said the pilot position he has been offered has not been properly funded.

Martinovich did show up Tuesday to testify at Richardson's hearing before a personnel officer.

"There were 15 armed security officers there," Robben said.

Martinovich retires in September.

- Ed Vogel

Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3900. Contact reporter Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919. Follow her on Twitter @lmyerslvrj.

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