Nevada Republicans cut Democrats’ lead for first time since early voting began

Republicans cut into the Democrat’s early-vote lead Monday, the first time the GOP has recorded more votes statewide than Democrats since voting started on Oct. 22.

About 19,300 Republicans voted in Nevada in-person and via mail-in ballots Monday, compared to roughly 17,000 Democrats. After Democrats had built on their lead every day for the first nine days of early voting, Monday saw that lead drop from about 34,000 to roughly 31,800, and narrow by about two percentage points, from 44-36 in favor of Democrats to 43-37.

UNLV political science Professor David Damore said the result will likely make Democrats a little nervous, but he doesn’t think they should be scared that this was the start of a trend.

The 2016 general election is setting up much like the 2012 election, with the ebbs and flows of voter turnout nearly identical to those of four years ago, Damore said. He expects to see the same Democratic lull Tuesday and Wednesday that happened in 2012, followed by a surge in the final two days. That final push gave Democrats about a 48,000 vote lead statewide heading into Election Day in 2012.

“I think it will balance out over the course of the week. This is just kind of a rerun of 2012,” he said.

If early voting does play out as it did four years ago, it will be difficult to predict most of the races before the results roll in, despite the Democrat lead. In 2012, that lead helped President Barack Obama defeat Republican nominee Mitt Romney by seven points. But it wasn’t enough for Democrat Shelley Berkley to overcome incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Dean Heller, who won by a single point.

Damore also pointed to one other factor he thinks might have affected the voter outcome Monday.

Republicans, Damore said, tend to be older and probably were less focused on Monday’s candy festivities than their younger counterparts.

“Halloween probably had something to do with it.”

Contact Colton Lochhead at clochhead@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4683. Follow @ColtonLochhead on Twitter.