Poll: Porter in tough company

The electoral climate faced by Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev., just keeps getting tougher, according to a new poll.

Porter's was one of 45 Republican-held House districts included in a survey released last week that found Democrats collectively had a 7-point edge on Republicans in those districts.

Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research interviewed 1,600 voters in "battleground" districts in Republican hands. Overall, Democrats led the Republicans, whose names were read in the poll, 50 percent to 43 percent. The poll was conducted in mid-May and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

"We had a wave election in 2006," when Democrats took both houses of Congress, pollster Stan Greenberg said. "We didn't think it was possible to have a second wave election, but this wave seems as strong as in 2006."

The Republican districts were divided into two tiers. Porter's was put in Tier 1, the congressional districts considered most vulnerable to Democratic takeover based on various metrics.

Democrats led Republicans by 9 percentage points, 51 percent to 42 percent, in the Tier 1 districts, compared to just 3 points in the Tier 2 districts. Porter's district also fell in the regional category that was most vulnerable in the survey: suburban districts, where Democrats led by 15 points.

District-specific poll data on Nevada's 3rd Congressional District wasn't available, Greenberg said, because the sample size, though hefty in the aggregate, would have been too small in an individual district to be scientifically valid.

President Bush's approval rating in the 45 districts was 34 percent, while the incumbent members of Congress averaged 38 percent approval.

The poll also found presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama running neck and neck in the 45 districts.

"You have to keep reminding yourself you're looking at Republican-held districts, not a national poll," Greenberg said in explaining why the results were so striking.

LEAVING A MARK

For the first time since 2004, Mark DeStefano won't be on the ballot this year.

A failed Republican candidate for university regent and state treasurer, DeStefano had filed to run for Assembly as an independent candidate. But late last month, he withdrew his bid.

Also withdrawing candidacies by the May 28 deadline were Barry Clayton in Assembly District 13 and Venicia Considine in Assembly 18, both Democrats. School Board District A candidate Gordon S. Hale also withdrew, while Michael Javornicky, who filed for North Las Vegas Justice of the Peace, was thrown off the ballot because he is not an attorney.

Clayton's withdrawal leaves former congressional candidate Andrew Martin with no primary opponent in his race for the seat held by Republican Assemblyman Chad Christensen, who himself faces a primary against Michael Kurcab.

Considine had filed when Democratic Assemblyman Mark Manendo was dithering about whether to run for the state Senate, but didn't want to run against him and withdrew when Manendo filed for re-election. She plans to seek the seat in two years.

District 2, the seat DeStefano had filed for, is open following the retirement of former Republican leader Garn Mabey. Former Clark County Republican Chairman John Hambrick has the support of the party establishment, while unknown Republicans Ernest Fitzpatrick and "Jack" Surpure also are running.

DeStefano said he got out of the race in order to support Surpure, a pediatrician, and hopefully defeat Hambrick. He said he objected to the party establishment's embrace of Hambrick.

"I don't think we need another party insider," he said. "We need somebody from the community who can really make tough decisions. We need a doctor to succeed Garn Mabey," who is also a physician. "Talking to Dr. Jack, I really think he can do it."

Getting out of politics has been good for DeStefano. If you've seen him lately, you might not recognize the man who ran for treasurer.

"I've lost 60 pounds since the election," he said.

SMACK DOWN

The Ron Paul revolution isn't finished in Nevada. Republican congressional candidates in all three of Nevada's House districts hope to draw on its spirit.

In Congressional District 1, Chris Dyer is the "Ron Paul Republican" vying with six other GOP members to take on Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev. In Congressional District 2, James Smack is taking on Dean Heller. In Congressional District 3, Carl Bunce is one of two Republicans challenging Porter.

Paul's followers showed their dedication at the April 26 state Republican convention, where they showed up in force and helped enact a rules change that lengthened the national delegate election process. The convention was recessed without electing delegates.

The state party last week set July 26 as the re-convention date, but Paul supporters have vowed to stage a rogue convention on what they believe is a more suitable date, June 28.

Many Paul supporters at the convention voiced the view that their movement, though inspired by the Texas congressman, wasn't about his candidacy but his ideas.

In District 2, Smack is Heller's only primary opponent. According to a news release, he lives in Fallon and has a business in Sparks.

"Many of our problems come directly from out-of-control spending by the federal government," Smack is quoted as saying in the release. "Our government keeps on spending, sending billions in aid to numerous foreign countries, while our neighbors here in Nevada and around the United States are losing their homes."

HALLOWED HALLS

Rabbi Felipe Goodman confessed to being a bit overwhelmed when he stepped into the U.S. House chamber Tuesday to deliver the opening prayer.

"You realize this is one of the few nations in the world where the clergy can come onto the House floor to deliver the prayer and still there is separation between church and state. This is not a godless nation," Goodman said.

"All these thoughts were hitting me at 2,000 miles per hour," he said.

Goodman, the leader of Temple Beth Sholom in Las Vegas, was invited to Washington by a member of his congregation: Berkley.

As he was instructed by the House chaplain, Goodman prepared a prayer of no more than 150 words that did not contain any foreign language, nor mention of any foreign country or foreign leader.

He said he had to adjust a bit because his prayers usually mention the "God of Israel." And of course Israel is a foreign nation.

So Goodman prayed to the "God of our ancestors."

With his wife Liz and a number of friends looking down from the gallery, Goodman prayed that service members overseas be protected and brought home safely "so we may enjoy the blessings of freedom and liberty."

The rabbi, who was born in Mexico and became a U.S. citizen last year, also referenced immigration.

"Let us be always mindful that we are all children of immigrants," he prayed. "Give us the wisdom to understand what the responsibility of fighting oppression, fighting poverty and injustice really means. Amen."

In an interview afterward, Goodman said he wanted to make a point.

"I have the feeling that sometimes in this country we forget that we came from all over the world," he said. "Our borders were not always sealed, and they are still not sealed, but this nation is great because it is the sum of its parts."

Goodman had his House appearance recorded off C-SPAN, then posted it to YouTube and distributed links to his congregation when he returned to Las Vegas.

Stephens Washington Bureau Chief Steve Tetreault contributed to this report. Contact reporter Molly Ball at mball @reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.