Poll shows incumbent faces test

Former state Sen. Joe Heck went from lost cause to strong contender in just eight weeks.

All he did was set his sights on Washington, D.C., instead of Carson City.

Heck, a Henderson physician who never topped 1 percent in the polls during a brief gubernatorial campaign, is tied at 40 percent with incumbent Rep. Dina Titus, D-Nev., in the race to represent Nevada's 3rd Congressional District.

That's according to a new survey conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

In a separate question, the survey showed Republican Rob Lauer getting support from 32 percent of respondents against 48 percent for Titus, a former state senator and University of Nevada, Las Vegas professor.

In each head-to-head scenario, 20 percent of respondents were undecided.

Heck campaign manager Grant Hewitt said it shows his candidate benefits from an anti-incumbent sentiment among voters.

"As the economy is continuing to fall, these aren't shocking numbers to us," Hewitt said.

The poll was taken Monday through Wednesday, generated responses from 300 registered voters in District 3 and was weighted to reflect the balance of Democratic, Republican and nonpartisan registration in the district. The margin of error was plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Titus spokesman Andrew Stoddard said the incumbent knows she represents a closely divided district and is confident voters will support her re-election.

"She has been relentless in her efforts to help families that are facing foreclosure," Stoddard said of Titus. "She has fought to extend unemployment benefits for Nevadans who are struggling to find work during the worst economic recession in a generation, and she has taken concrete steps to invest in Nevada's renewable energy sector so we can create good jobs in our community."

Lauer, a real estate investor, said, "I am within 16 points a year out from the general election. I polled within 8 points of Heck's numbers after only two months in the race. I am thrilled and expected my numbers to be far lower after such a short time in the race."

Brad Coker, Mason-Dixon managing partner, said Titus' vote in favor of health insurance overhaul legislation may have hurt her numbers, at least in the short term.

Respondents in District 3 opposed Titus' vote in favor of the health legislation, with 47 percent saying they disapproved, 41 percent saying they approved and 12 percent undecided.

The legislation is still being debated in the U.S. Senate and isn't guaranteed to become law.

Titus' vote has generated dueling televisions ads by special interest groups both attacking and thanking her for her support.

"At this point her best hope is that maybe this thing dies and loses its punch as an issue," Coker said.

He said Titus' numbers are similar to those of former Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev., whom she defeated in November 2008.

"This is essentially the same shoe on the other foot with Titus," Coker said.

Despite Heck running neck-and-neck with her in the poll, Titus still has an advantage in the race. There are 183,981 Democrats, 150,215 Republicans and 67,171 nonpartisan voters in the district, giving Democrats an 18.4 percentage point registration advantage over Republicans.

Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, said Heck's support probably isn't secure.

"Heck is getting 40 percent probably by being the Republican nominee rather than people knowing a lot about who he is," Gonzales said. "Right now it is a center left or slightly Democratic district."

Still, the Heck numbers show "Titus can't take her re-election for granted," Gonzales said.

Heck faces criticism from the left and right for changing his views on signing a pledge to oppose tax increases.

In March, Heck said he wouldn't sign one of the pledges, a document conservative groups challenge candidates to sign, because "voters elect politicians to make the right decision based on the circumstances."

Later, Heck signed such a pledge.

Both the Democratic Party and Lauer have criticized Heck for changing positions on taxes.

"The voters were fooled once, and they are not going to be fooled again," Lauer said.

Contact reporter Benjamin Spillman at bspillman@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3861.