Good things to remember

Las Vegas will rebound big.

I wouldn't want to sugarcoat the fix America's economy is in. If what hit Las Vegas -- a strong city -- hits the rest of the country with equal force, this recession will be nothing short of b-r-u-t-a-l.

It started with housing and it will end with housing. In between, a global recession and a credit collapse brought every major gaming company in the city to its knees, thanks to a debt structure totally intolerant of even a small downturn in revenue. As a result, Las Vegans saw their jobs and their home equity go bulls-to-bears inside a year.

Will Las Vegas survive? You bet. In fact, if you will forgive the dark humor, you can bet the mortgage on it, which, of course, we all are.

This is not to say that Las Vegas won't face more pain. It may, thanks to the depth of the housing scandal of 2008 brought to you by clusternuts like Sen. Chris Dodd, Rep. Barney Frank and an out-of-control mortgage industry. And we'll no doubt see increased unemployment as casinos, one-by-one, restructure to rid themselves of heavy debt taken on at just the wrong time.

But here's the good news. There is still a worldwide demand for what Las Vegas offers, which gives the center of the gaming planet an opportunity to restructure. This change will result in a greater number of smaller, more competitive gaming companies. Employment will then edge upward on a broader economic platform and that will lift the rest of the economy, including the beaten-down housing market.

We're starting to see it now. The Herbst gaming franchise, post-bankruptcy, will go on with little interruption to employees, and the Tropicana hotel, long one of the economic mysteries of the Strip, will emerge from court proceedings with new owners with a proven track record in creating value. The sale of Treasure Island to Phil Ruffin begins the certain deconsolidation of gaming giants.

The new risk-takers will bring new blood to the industry of worldwide gaming. And the savvy legacy gaming families -- the Fertittas, the Boyds and the Gaughans, to name only three -- will bring value along with a few new ideas of their own. (Can the UFC resort and casino be far behind?)

We've survived recessions before -- both mild ones and severe -- and we'll survive this one, too.

It may get a little harder before it gets a little easier, but things will recover. In the meanwhile, here's my list of seven good things to remember about the strength of Las Vegas.

Good News No. 1: Even in the teeth of this recession, Las Vegas still provides employment to nearly 914,000 people. Education and Health Services actually saw an increase in employment from January 2008 to January 2009, as did government services.

Good News No. 2: It's more affordable to visit Las Vegas than other tourist destinations, with average daily room rates of $104.89 in January 2009. In comparison, San Francisco's average room rate for 2008 was $192.45. Las Vegas is also not boring.

Good news No. 3: As of January 2009, Las Vegas' hotel room inventory was 140,729, and this number is expected to increase by 10.5 percent to 155,562 by the end of 2009. In comparison, Orlando, Fla., has 111,700 hotel rooms and San Francisco a little more than 33,300.

Good News No. 4: Air travel to Las Vegas is down and may continue to decline for a while. Nevertheless, there are still more than 3 million air passengers each month. In January 2009, the total air passenger count was 3,016,067.

Good News No. 5: Average daily auto traffic on Interstate 15 at the California-Nevada border has actually increased by 2.6 percent, to 33,935 in January 2009, compared with January 2008.

Good News No. 6: In January 2009, existing home sales increased 70.4 percent compared to January 2008.

Good News No. 7: Median home prices have dropped, making it more affordable to buy a home. The median price of an existing home was $155,000, and the median price of a new home was $235,000 in January 2009. This reset in home prices will facilitate the recovery as unemployment returns to historic low levels.

Your take-away this morning is: The internals of the Las Vegas economy are strong. Trust your publisher on this. Post this column on the fridge and send me a note when you see signs that I'm right.

Good for the goose

Last Sunday this newspaper ran a list of the valley's largest residential water customers. It included aerial pictures with addresses.

A few conspiratorial members of the peanut gallery speculated that the newspaper culled me from the list and withheld my residence. That of course, is not true. In fact, as regular readers know, I take two days off without fail each year. It is not Christmas and the Fourth of July. It is the first two days of the NCAA men's basketball tournament. I was off doing my testosterone-laden March Madness thing and didn't even know the story was coming.

I'm apparently not one of the valley's bigger residential water customers. I'm on well water, which I think means I'm not a customer at all. But, to be fair and to show I can take my own medicine, I'll run a picture of the Frederick homestead, with my address, with this column. And for good measure, I'll also do the same with Review-Journal Editor Thomas Mitchell's 0.48-acre property at 4940 Conough Lane, which used 390,000 gallons of water (at a cost of $968) last year -- a usage rate of 18.7 gallons per square foot, against a valley home average of 29 gallons per square foot.

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

Lawmaker, heal thyself

In what can best be described as a fight between the kettle and the pot, the donkeys in the Nevada Legislature last week brayed about the governor giving his staff salary hikes ... and the governor's administration brayed back over runaway legislative staff overtime.

A curse on both their houses, if you ask me. First and foremost, the governor ought to have his head shaved for handing out raises while proposing pay cuts for everyone else in government. But most legislators have no standing telling the rest of the state how to do business when their own staff rack up obscene overtime during the session.

That said, there was one other nugget of hypocrisy in the legislative overtime story that deserves more attention. While many on the legislative staff accrue $50,000 to $80,000 in overtime pay, it came to light that this startling amount is paid only as straight time. Not time and half. Straight time.

The Legislature makes laws that require every other employer in Nevada pay to overtime at time and half. But the Legislature exempts itself?

How about living by the laws you make, Mr. and Mrs. Legislator Kettle?

Sherman Frederick (sfrederick@ reviewjournal.com) is publisher of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and president of Stephens Media.