Raggio working hard to remain relevant

June's primary election might as well be called the Raggio Referendum.

Yes, there will be crowded Republican primaries for U.S. Senate and governor, with Harry and Rory Reid awaiting the winners. Front-page stuff there.

But the returns from that night might answer a far more important question for Nevada's malnourished economy: Will Bill Raggio's favored candidates for the state Senate advance to the general election and put him in position to again have final say over massive tax increases?

Raggio, the Reno Republican and Senate minority leader, pulled all the strings at the close of the 2009 session. Democrats held a 12-9 majority, two votes shy of the two-thirds majority they needed to pass tax increases and override Gov. Jim Gibbons' veto. Raggio leveraged some minor public employee pension reforms in exchange for delivering the votes that brought higher sales, payroll, business license and vehicle registration taxes.

The term-limited Raggio made those tax increases expire in the summer of 2011 to set up his sublime swan song, a repeat performance that allows him to retire from politics as the savior of state services.

But to do that, Raggio has to keep Democrats from gaining a two-thirds majority. And if the GOP does especially well, taking out two or three incumbent Democrats and reclaiming the majority, he'll need most of his charges to share his public-sector sympathies.

That's why Raggio is doing everything he can to make sure he stays relevant. Fiscal conservatives -- and Democrats -- are doing everything they can to make sure he doesn't.

Last week, the Republican Senate caucus got together to issue early endorsements in next year's races. It's ridiculously premature for such recommendations -- candidates can't even file for office until March 1.

The official line is that early endorsements are needed to spare chosen candidates from the political and economic expense of bruising primaries. The reality is that Raggio intends to scare off or starve any GOP candidates who want to cut state spending and hold the line on taxes, even amid worsening revenue shortfalls.

In Washoe District 2, vacated by term-limited Maurice Washington, the caucus endorsed Washoe County Commissioner Robert Larkin over Assemblyman Don Gustavson, who voted against this year's tax hikes.

In Washoe District 4, vacated by term-limited Randolph Townsend (who voted for the tax hikes), the caucus endorsed state employee Ben Kieckhefer over Assemblyman Ty Cobb, who voted against this year's tax hikes.

In Clark District 9, the caucus endorsed incumbent Dennis Nolan, who voted for this year's tax hikes. He'll be challenged by Assemblyman Chad Christensen, who -- you guessed it -- voted against the tax hikes.

In Clark District 12, vacated by Warren Hardy (who voted for the tax hikes) the caucus endorsed Assemblyman Joe Hardy, who voted against the tax hikes but voted for tax increases in 2003, over Henderson businessman Patrick McNaught, who isn't happy with the Legislature's big-spending ways.

"I have been told that the purpose of this anointment process by the Senate Caucus was ... to avoid primaries," McNaught said in a terse letter to GOP senators announcing his refusal to participate in the endorsement meeting. "Well, it seems to not be working."

Indeed, another GOP primary is taking shape in the Capital Senatorial District, much to Raggio's displeasure. Assemblyman James Settelmeyer, who voted against the tax hikes, will take on former Carson City Mayor Ray Masayko, who has pledged to run on low taxes and smaller government. (Settelmeyer got the courtesy nod from the Senate caucus.)

"Senator Raggio knows what kind of candidate he likes, that's for sure," said Sen. Barbara Cegavske of Las Vegas, who hasn't drawn an announced Republican challenger in her re-election bid. She voted against the 2003 and 2009 tax hikes.

"Our caucus is split now, and it will be split in 2011, depending on who wins, on whether to raise taxes or cut spending," she said.

Christensen decided to challenge Nolan after hearing too many squeals of mercy from business owners.

"They're terrified and they're fed up," Christensen said. "They had their payroll tax docked up while they're trying to keep employees on the payroll. They're absolutely sick of tax increases."

Democrats are circling their own wagons, with the goal of picking up two Senate seats and removing Raggio from tax-hiking equation altogether. Their Senate caucus went through an early endorsement process this month as well, and at least one potential primary has been avoided: Las Vegas Assemblyman Tick Segerblom yielded to Assemblyman Ruben Kihuen in Senate District 10, which was vacated by term-limited Bob Coffin. As a reward, Segerblom gets to lead reapportionment hearings.

The Democrats appear committed to running sitting, tax-hiking Assembly members in most of the open Senate races.

If Raggio's guys survive the primary, voters won't be left with much of a choice come November -- which could leave Raggio and genuine fiscal conservatives on the sidelines together.

Glenn Cook (gcook@reviewjournal.com) is a Review-Journal editorial writer.